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Sequoia Capital20 min

Will Open Source AI Overtake Closed Models? Ft. Olama, Fireworks and Open Router

Jeff Morgan, Dmytro Dzhulgakov, Alex Atallah, Dima, Matthew Walkerman

Conference Presentation, Panel

Industry leaders from Ollama, Fireworks, and OpenRouter advocate for a balanced future where open-source and closed-source models each command 50% of inference tokens, driven by the strategic advantages of decentralized innovation and lower capital barriers. While current open adoption sits at 30%, panelists predict this share will expand as foundational models improve through reinforcement learning and enterprises prioritize ownership of proprietary fine-tuned artifacts. This shift relies critically on sustainable decentralized inference infrastructure to compete against the entrenched advantages of large, closed-source providers.