Latest Interviews
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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs25 min
‘Affordability’: Consumer Concerns and Government Proposals
David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Allison Nathan
Amidst a persistent housing affordability crisis driven by regulatory constraints and construction labor shortages, the administration has relied on reactive executive orders to utilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac capacity rather than enacting comprehensive legislative reforms. While these measures aim to modestly lower mortgage rates through increased mortgage-backed security purchases and a ban on institutional single-family home purchases, they fail to address the root causes of supply scarcity or deliver immediate price relief for homeowners. Future policy focus is expected to shift toward zoning incentives and speculative tariff rebates, though significant progress remains hindered by the need for congressional approval and the long-term nature of structural housing deficits.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
The Shutdown’s Economic Impact
A partisan role reversal has precipitated a broad federal government shutdown as Democrats withhold support for clean spending bills to demand the extension of ACA health insurance subsidies, a move that polling suggests is driving voter blame toward Republicans. The crisis faces a critical resolution pressure point on October 15 when active-duty military personnel miss a pay cycle, a deadline that historically compels congressional action to avoid widespread economic disruption. While the shutdown projects to reduce Q4 GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points and delay key economic data releases, market analysts and the Federal Reserve anticipate the stalemate will resolve quickly through a targeted fiscal compromise.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Tariffs: What’s ahead and why it matters
Alec Phillips, Joseph Briggs, Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Starting February 1, 2025, the administration implemented a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and delayed measures against Canada and Mexico while accelerating steel and aluminum duties to 25% with no exemptions. This unprecedented two-week escalation compresses trade war dynamics into a single window, projecting a mid-single-digit rise in effective U.S. tariff rates that could slow American growth by 25 basis points and push core inflation to 2.6% by year-end. As global central banks diverge with the Federal Reserve adopting a slightly hawkish stance, investors are increasingly hedging against dollar strength while anticipating a pivotal April 1 report on structural tariff mechanisms.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Why Treasury auctions — and rising deficits — are becoming a focal point for markets and investors
Jonny Fine, Alec Phillips, Alison Nathan
This analysis examines U.S. Treasury auction mechanics and market dynamics where rising issuance volumes have combined with Federal Reserve expectations to drive a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. While political discourse has largely sidelined the deficit despite projected long-term debt growth, record corporate refinancing and resilient consumer spending currently offset immediate concerns about fiscal sustainability. Ultimately, Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate intermittent market volatility from specific auction tails rather than a systemic correction, warning that a future recession remains the primary catalyst for deteriorating economic conditions.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
US presidential elections outlook: Implications for policy and markets
Joe Wall, Alec Phillips, Alison Nathan
The 2024 U.S. presidential election, held on November 5, presents significant market volatility risks as former President Donald Trump leads the Republican primary against Nikki Haley despite facing 91 criminal indictments. The general election outcome will likely be decided by seven competitive states, with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at historically high levels that could impact Democratic margins in a race where economic concerns regarding inflation and tariffs dominate voter sentiment. Political analysts project that a divided government or an all-Republican victory is more probable than a Democratic sweep, with fiscal policy heavily dependent on whether the 2017 tax cuts are extended and how proposed tariffs are implemented.