Kamakshya Trivedi
Showing 1–7 of 7 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
Emerging Markets: Stirred, But Not Yet Shaken
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts observe that risky assets recently reversed gains following an Iran conflict-driven oil spike, shifting market expectations from rate cuts to an inflation shock that has strengthened the US dollar through favorable terms of trade. While traditional hedges have underperformed, the firm maintains a positive outlook for emerging market equities, projecting 10–12% upside driven by robust earnings and structural trends like the AI semiconductor supply chain rather than multiple expansion. This bullish stance assumes the energy crisis remains short-duration; however, a prolonged conflict threatening physical supply shortages could force a re-evaluation of growth estimates and trigger significant market damage.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 3: Assets and Allocation
Peter Oppenheimer, Kamakshya Trivedi, Daan Struyven, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alyssa Nathan
A 2026 global equity strategy forecasts sustained optimism driven by profit growth and moderating inflation, with a strategic tilt toward undervalued emerging markets and AI application sectors. The outlook anticipates a depreciating US dollar and a tail end of global easing, prompting portfolio managers to favor equities over credit while hedging against stretched valuations through diversified alternatives. Simultaneously, commodities are positioned for divergence, featuring a base case for a 10% gold rally and strategic long exposure to local US power markets fueled by surging AI data center demand.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Tariffs: What’s ahead and why it matters
Alec Phillips, Joseph Briggs, Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Starting February 1, 2025, the administration implemented a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and delayed measures against Canada and Mexico while accelerating steel and aluminum duties to 25% with no exemptions. This unprecedented two-week escalation compresses trade war dynamics into a single window, projecting a mid-single-digit rise in effective U.S. tariff rates that could slow American growth by 25 basis points and push core inflation to 2.6% by year-end. As global central banks diverge with the Federal Reserve adopting a slightly hawkish stance, investors are increasingly hedging against dollar strength while anticipating a pivotal April 1 report on structural tariff mechanisms.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
How a popular trade collapsed — and why it matters
Kamakshya Trivedi, Praneet Shah, Allison Nathan
Following a surge to record speculative highs in 2024, the yen carry trade unraveled after the Bank of Japan's rate hike and expectations of US Federal Reserve cuts narrowed the critical yield differential. This reversal triggered a negative feedback loop of forced liquidations across global markets, affecting currencies from the Mexican peso to the Chinese renminbi, while distinct dynamics emerged between the rapid unwinding of hedge fund positions and the slower rebalancing of institutional portfolios. Despite the immediate volatility, economists anticipate the trade could regain relevance by mid-November if US economic data supports the restoration of attractive global yield spreads.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Breaking Down the Dollar’s Rise
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts project further U.S. dollar appreciation driven by America's overheating economy and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, which contrast with the constrained monetary policies of the ECB, BOJ, and PBOC. While this strength aids U.S. inflation goals, it forces non-U.S. economies into a difficult trade-off between accepting currency depreciation or risking domestic growth through aggressive tightening, with emerging markets facing severe debt vulnerabilities. Exceptions like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have resisted these trends by initiating earlier rate hikes, yet analysts anticipate the dollar's dominance will persist until U.S. inflation peaks and global growth stabilizes, unlikely before 2023.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
What the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Means for the Global Economy and Markets
Daan Struyven, Peter Oppenheimer, Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global economic conditions have tightened by 50 basis points, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise inflation forecasts upward to 5.4% in the Euro area and anticipate a reduction in global growth. Central banks are navigating a bimodal trade-off between rising energy-driven inflation and growth risks, with the Federal Reserve projecting 11 rate hikes in 2023 and the ECB adopting a data-dependent strategy while Germany increases defense spending. To mitigate these shocks, strategic asset allocations are shifting toward commodities, energy equities, and safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Canadian dollar, while European fiscal policy pivots toward energy security and refugee support.
- Goldman Sachs8 min
One Year Since Market Trough: A Cycle on Fast-Forward
Goldman Sachs analysis identifies that the March 2020 market bottom was triggered when specific downside risks were quantified and policy mitigations stabilized funding, leading to a historical "fast forward" recovery where the S&P 500 reclaimed pre-pandemic levels within months. Driven by rapid vaccine deployment and unprecedented global fiscal support, the bank forecasts nearly 7% global growth for 2021, a pace significantly outstripping consensus expectations and previous post-crisis rebounds. This accelerated cycle is expected to force earlier central bank tightening compared to traditional recoveries, prompting investors to position portfolios in cyclical assets while hedging against rapidly rising interest rates.