Latest Interviews
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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs25 min
‘Affordability’: Consumer Concerns and Government Proposals
David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Allison Nathan
Amidst a persistent housing affordability crisis driven by regulatory constraints and construction labor shortages, the administration has relied on reactive executive orders to utilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac capacity rather than enacting comprehensive legislative reforms. While these measures aim to modestly lower mortgage rates through increased mortgage-backed security purchases and a ban on institutional single-family home purchases, they fail to address the root causes of supply scarcity or deliver immediate price relief for homeowners. Future policy focus is expected to shift toward zoning incentives and speculative tariff rebates, though significant progress remains hindered by the need for congressional approval and the long-term nature of structural housing deficits.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives
David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists David Miracle, Andrew Tilton, and Yari Stein outline regional economic forecasts for 2026, projecting 2.5% US growth driven by tax cuts and Fed rate reductions alongside a resilient 4.8% expansion in China fueled by manufacturing competitiveness. The analysis highlights contrasting monetary trajectories, including the Bank of Japan's aggressive tightening to 0.75% and the ECB's projected rate hold, while warning of US labor market uncertainties and European structural weaknesses. These insights, recorded on January 7, 2026, serve as the second installment of the Outlook 2026 series, setting the stage for subsequent asset class discussions.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
What investors expect from Trump
A Goldman Sachs survey of over 500 investors reveals that the market anticipates a universal tariff as the primary 2025 macro risk while expecting the 2017 tax cuts to be extended alongside a stabilization of net immigration near 750,000 annually. Although investors assign a 35% probability to a universal tariff and project modest additional tax cuts, their outlook suggests that the inflationary pressure from policy shifts will remain contained, allowing the Federal Reserve to prioritize growth and pursue rate cuts. Goldman Sachs concludes that while temporary growth drag may occur in 2025 due to the earlier implementation of immigration and tariff measures, the long-term growth trajectory will remain largely unchanged as fiscal constraints limit further significant tax or spending expansions.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Can the US consumer stay strong?
David Mericle, Kate McShane, Bonnie Herzog, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist David Miracle projects moderate U.S. consumption growth in 2024, attributing current resilience to strong household balance sheets while warning that unemployment risks could trigger a shift to job loss. Retail analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog observe a bifurcated consumer environment where spending prioritizes services and essentials while lower-income demographics defer discretionary purchases and trade down to private labels. Despite these pressures, the market faces further headwinds from a five-day shorter holiday shopping window, persistent price levels, and election uncertainty, leading management to adopt cautious strategies focused on revenue growth and value optimization.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Are inflation fears overblown? The outlook for inflation, US growth, and long-term rates
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024, driven by labor supply expansions from immigration that prevent overheating despite disinflation from shelter rents. The firm argues the neutral interest rate has structurally shifted to 3.0%–3.5%, forecasting Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in July 2024 as financial conditions remain accommodative. This outlook suggests a balanced labor market and mechanical rent adjustments will allow inflation to trend toward 2.5% without triggering wage-price spirals.