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  1. Goldman Sachs1h 1m

    Phasing in the Reopening of the Economy

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Dr. Luciana Borio, Dr. Florian Krammer, Sharmeen Mosavaramani

    As of April 2020, global infections surpassed 3.2 million with 61,600 U.S. fatalities, prompting a complex transition toward economic reopening despite many states failing to meet sustained case reduction criteria. Therapeutic advancements, notably the NIH's findings on baricitinib, offer potential mortality reductions while experimental monoclonal antibodies and multiple vaccine platforms aim for deployment by mid-year to address the pathogen's persistence. Public health officials warn that premature relaxation of restrictions risks autumnal resurgence, necessitating robust testing expansion and contact tracing to manage recurring waves until herd immunity is achieved.

  2. Goldman Sachs57 min

    The State of the Real Estate Market

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alan Kava, Roy March, Ralph Rosenberg, Sharmeen Mosavaramani

    On April 24, 2020, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and Eastdale executives analyzed a global real estate market defined by record cap rate spreads, an 80% drop in private transaction volumes, and divergent sector performance driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. While hospitality and retail faced existential threats from plummeting occupancy and accelerating structural decline, industrial and life science sectors demonstrated resilience through e-commerce growth and near-perfect rent collections. Industry leaders anticipate a prolonged recovery period where well-capitalized banks may stabilize the market, yet a sharp bifurcation remains between distressed "have-to" sellers and liquidity-rich investors poised to acquire depressed assets.

  3. Goldman Sachs1h 2m

    An Update on Therapies and Vaccines

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Dr. Richard Hatchett, Esther Krofah, Dr. Paul Stoffels

    On April 14, 2020, Goldman Sachs CIO Wealth Management hosted Sharmin Mosavar-Rahmani for the eighth iteration of a COVID-19 series discussing the epidemiological landscape of nearly 2 million infections and 110,000 fatalities. Experts outlined a pipeline where effective therapies are expected within four to six months while vaccines leveraging platforms from CEPI and Johnson & Johnson may require 12 to 18 months, with potential emergency use by the first quarter of 2021. The call further detailed critical challenges regarding antibody test accuracy, the certainty of a second wave, and the necessity for aggressive surveillance and testing infrastructure to facilitate any safe economic reopening.

  4. Goldman Sachs53 min

    The CARES Act and its Impact on the US Economic Outlook

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, William G. Gale, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani, Bill Gale

    On March 31, 2020, Goldman Sachs hosted a client call featuring Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and external fiscal experts to analyze the CARES Act and downgrade the 2020 U.S. economic outlook to a record contraction. The discussion detailed the legislation's targeted relief components, including expanded unemployment benefits, direct stimulus checks, and $46 billion in aid for the airline industry, alongside projections that Q2 GDP will fall approximately 10% with net debt-to-GDP rising above 100%. Despite these severe short-term headwinds, experts concluded that low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's potential $4.5 trillion lending capacity would likely prevent a sovereign debt crisis.

  5. Goldman Sachs58 min

    An Update on the Economic and Public Health Implications of Coronavirus for Europe

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Dr. David Heymann, Sven Jari Stehn, Silvia Ardagna, Peter Oppenheimer, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani

    Hosted by Goldman Sachs on March 26, 2020, a panel of infectious disease experts and economists analyzed the severe impact of the coronavirus on Europe, highlighting Italy's high mortality due to demographic factors and early hospital overload while noting a potential 9% GDP contraction in the Euro area by year-end. In response to the crisis, European central banks and governments deployed unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures, including unlimited asset purchases and corporate loan guarantees, though fragmentation within the Eurozone contrasted with more coordinated US actions. Despite the deepening economic downturn, equity strategists noted that market valuations have reached historic lows, projecting a high probability of double-digit returns over the subsequent 24 months as earnings decline stabilizes.

  6. Goldman Sachs1h 22m

    A Coronavirus Update with Leading Health Experts and Business Leaders

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Dr. Thomas Schinecker, Steve Rusckowski, Dr. Leonard Schleifer, Stéphane Bancel, Pablo Tebas, Peter Slavin, Dr. Barry Bloom, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani

    Hosted by Goldman Sachs on March 20, 2020, industry leaders including Regeneron's Dr. Leonard Schleifer, Moderna's Stefan Bancel, and Quest Diagnostics executives detailed rapid advancements in diagnostic scaling, therapeutic trials, and vaccine development. The panel highlighted that while testing capacity is projected to meet demand within weeks, critical bottlenecks in PPE and supply chains persist, prompting urgent calls for Defense Production Act mobilization to protect healthcare workers. Simultaneously, experts outlined aggressive timelines for Moderna's mRNA vaccine reaching healthcare workers by late 2020 and emphasized that sustainable economic recovery relies on serologic testing and strict social distancing to prevent a predicted second wave.