Latest Interviews

Election 2020: can the Democrats win the Senate?

Dan Rosenhack

As of October 2020, The Economist's forecasting model projected a 71% probability of Democrats regaining Senate control by leveraging a statistical algorithm that combines real-time polling with historical fundamentals to identify likely flips in states like Arizona and Colorado. Despite these favorable indicators, the analysis acknowledged significant uncertainty regarding the 2020 election due to the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that potential unquantifiable shifts in voter behavior and record mail-in turnout introduce logistical variables the model cannot yet explicitly adjust for. This probabilistic assessment underscores the critical importance of a net gain of four seats for Democrats to secure a majority, with a slightly lower threshold available should President-elect Joe Biden cast a tie-breaking vote as Vice President.

Will covid kill globalisation?

Vijay Vaitheeswaran

Driven by the 2008 financial crisis, the US-China trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy is rapidly shifting from hyper-connectivity toward a fractured, regionalized structure where supply chain resilience outweighs pure efficiency. This transformation forces multinational corporations to localize operations while simultaneously triggering technological decoupling and political nationalism that risks leaving developing nations behind in the industrialization race. Experts conclude that while the era of unfettered global trade has ended, the optimal future path lies in fostering "resilient interdependence" rather than isolationist barriers.

America’s pandemic election: what could go wrong?

Jon Fassman

Amidst the global pandemic and systemic barriers to voting, the 2020 U.S. presidential election faces unprecedented risks of chaos due to a sitting president's refusal to guarantee a peaceful transfer of power and widespread concerns over mail-in ballot processing. With 228 pending legal challenges and a high probability of an information vacuum on election night, experts warn that a close result could trigger civil unrest if the loser, projected to be Donald Trump, rejects the outcome. While early voting strategies aim to mitigate logistical failures, the convergence of disinformation campaigns and external interference threatens to destabilize American democracy globally.

China v America: why universities are on the front line

Ketan, David Rennie

Driven by a historical precedent established in 1978, the modern exodus of Chinese students has created a financial interdependence for Western universities while exposing both parties to acute geopolitical leverage. This relationship now faces a dual crisis as rising security concerns, border restrictions, and potential state surveillance threaten to sever the academic exchanges that fueled China's economic rise. Consequently, institutions grapple with the strategic dilemma of maintaining vital revenue streams against the escalating risks to academic freedom and diplomatic stability.

China v America: who is in charge?

Antonio Guterres

The UN General Assembly convened an online summit to pledge billions for a coronavirus vaccine while explicitly excluding the Trump administration, which has concurrently halted funding to the World Health Organization and withdrawn from key international agreements. Amidst this diplomatic rift, China has steadily expanded its influence by securing leadership roles in UN agencies and utilizing veto power to block resolutions, prompting the U.S. State Department to deploy senior diplomats like Mark Lambert to counter these gains. Experts warn that without a reassertion of American global commitments and necessary institutional reforms, the rules-based liberal order faces significant erosion as the balance of power shifts toward an emerging Chinese-led alliance.

Covid-19: why travel will never be the same

Leo Mirani

In April 2020, global aviation experienced a historic collapse with passenger numbers dropping 94% year-over-year, forcing carriers like Virgin Atlantic to eliminate thousands of jobs while the IATA warned that without government aid, only 30 of over 700 airlines would survive. Regional recovery remains uneven, with European and U.S. flight levels still down by 75% and 57% respectively, threatening to permanently erase business travel segments that once subsidized leisure fares. Looking ahead, the industry faces a potential shift toward closed borders and reduced globalization, as travel restrictions and the retirement of older aircraft reshape the economic and operational landscape for years to come.

The carbon cycle is key to understanding climate change

Oliver Morton

Human fossil fuel combustion has disrupted Earth's natural carbon equilibrium, accelerating the transition into the Anthropocene and trapping heat at unprecedented rates. While the "Growing Green" movement reflects public demand for reduction, current political and technological limitations, particularly regarding the scalability of negative emission schemes, prevent a rapid restoration of pre-industrial conditions. Ultimately, reversing this geological shift demands a fundamental transformation of the global economic structure, a process that will span centuries regardless of whether the transition is driven by policy or necessity.

Real Numbers – Episode 04, Passing Your Driver's Test

Sawyer

This episode introduces Bayes' theorem to invert conditional probabilities, utilizing a DMV exam scenario to demonstrate calculating the likelihood that a passing applicant studied. The presentation further details Jane Street's business application of Bayesian inference for validating mathematical models against empirical data and derives the underlying proof using the commutative property of logical intersection. Concurrently, the summary resolves a prior probability challenge involving a card game where specific disjoint scenarios combine to yield a one-in-78 chance of losing an Ace on the first turn. Viewers are now tasked with solving the DMV problem using the provided formula, with the solution to be revealed in a future challenge.

Covid-19: why the economy could fare worse than you think

Callum Williams

Analysis of global economic data reveals that the pandemic has created a persistent "90% economy" driven by both government mandates and voluntary consumer caution, resulting in severe job losses for low-income sectors in China, Europe, and the US. While unprecedented state subsidies, such as the 750 billion euros deployed in Europe, currently mask underlying insolvency risks, the eventual withdrawal of this support threatens a cascade of business failures and heightened unemployment. The duration of this structural instability remains inextricably linked to the timeline for vaccine distribution, with delays expected to exacerbate disparities for vulnerable workers and reshape future political agendas.

Why politicians have failed to tackle climate change

Oliver Morton

Following James Hansen's 1988 congressional testimony, global climate diplomacy progressed through the binding yet flawed 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the 2015 Paris Agreement, which replaced mandatory targets with voluntary commitments. While fossil fuel interests historically obstructed regulation and developing nations like China initially grew emissions unchecked, strategic shifts now drive a transition toward renewable leadership despite emissions doubling since the 1970s. Current international strategy relies on a ratcheting mechanism to incrementally raise ambition, though avoiding effective inaction requires breaking a half-century of political compromise to meet temperature thresholds.

Can sea creatures adapt to climate change?

Dr. Purnasloki Bahadri, Claire

Dr. Purnasloki Bahadri reports that horseshoe crabs in the Bay of Bengal are facing existential threats from climate change, pollution, and commercial bleeding for medical products, which now account for roughly 50,000 annual deaths. While these ancient species attempt to adapt by migrating to new habitats like Sundarbans mangroves, their evolutionary pace cannot match the speed of current environmental degradation. In response, Bahadri is advocating for government-established Marine Protected Areas along the Indian coast to halt human activities and ensure the survival of this keystone species and its broader ecosystem.

How to stop plastic getting into the ocean

Claire

Ocean Clean-up founder Boyan Slat leads an organization deploying Interceptor boats across Asia, Africa, and South America to intercept an estimated two-thirds of river-borne plastic before it reaches the ocean. These vessels collect approximately 50,000 kilograms of waste daily, utilizing data from advanced camera systems to quantify debris and inform policies targeting the 1,000 waterways responsible for 80% of global ocean pollution. To ensure long-term viability and mitigate the projected 2050 crisis where marine plastic could outweigh fish, the group is scaling its fleet while transitioning collected waste into sellable products to achieve operational self-sufficiency.

Covid-19: the right way to leave lockdown

Edward Carr

Governments worldwide are navigating a complex, non-linear path to reopen economies by balancing staggered social distancing measures with the deployment of digital contact-tracing tools like those pioneered by Apple, Google, and China. While nations such as Germany and Denmark implement strict school and business protocols, experts warn that effective recovery depends on massive investments in testing infrastructure, PPE, and a workforce of 100,000 tracers to avoid costly lockdowns. Simultaneously, the global health community is racing to resolve manufacturing bottlenecks for three vaccine candidates to prevent "vaccine nationalism" and ensure equitable distribution to healthcare workers in developing nations.

How to treat covid-19

In response to the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, scientists are repurposing existing antivirals like Remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine to target the viral replicase system while the World Health Organization launches a global megatrial to evaluate their efficacy. Although President Donald Trump championed hydroxychloroquine as an immediate solution, rigorous clinical data remains limited compared to laboratory findings, prompting the trial to seek evidence of marginal therapeutic benefits. This strategy aims to rapidly reduce hospital stays and alleviate health system strain while the definitive long-term vaccine solution continues to develop over the estimated 1.5 to 2 years.

How Africa could one day rival China

Ida, Emabet Tesfaye, Asifa Mengesha, Bashadou

Projections indicate Africa's population will reach 4.5 billion by 2100, yet studies suggest that expanding female education could peak and subsequently reduce this demographic while unlocking a 10% GDP boost through equal workforce participation. As Ethiopia leads industrialization via the Eastern Industry Zone and high-value horticulture, experts warn that diversifying into service sectors and modernizing agriculture with smart technologies are essential to overcome low productivity and chronic infrastructure deficits. Despite facing climate vulnerabilities and recent pandemic disruptions, the continent's transition toward democratic governance and strategic investment in energy and education positions it to become a primary global growth engine.