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  1. Goldman Sachs20 min

    The case for private credit

    James Reynolds, Lotfi Karoui, Alison Nathan

    With private credit assets expanding to $2.1 trillion, the sector has evolved into a dominant financing alternative for private equity and sub-investment-grade borrowers, driven by institutional investors seeking inflation hedges and floating-rate yields. Despite limited historical recession data, the industry demonstrates resilience through superior creditor coordination and regulatory leverage caps that mitigate systemic fragility compared to the pre-2008 banking system. Looking forward, senior direct lending and flexible capital solutions in Europe and the U.S. present primary growth areas as traditional bank underwriting retreats, while emerging distressed opportunities in cyclical sectors offer avenues for debt-to-equity restructuring.

  2. Goldman Sachs10 min

    Opportunities amidst historic volatility

    Josh Schiffrin, Chris Hussey

    Josh Schifrin and market analysts assess a volatile economic landscape where projected tariffs threaten to spark inflation and a temporary growth dip while creating a binary risk scenario between a trade war recession or a deal-driven recovery. Treasury yields have surged following hawkish commentary on tariff-induced inflation, breaking historical inverse correlations with equities and signaling fragility in market liquidity that mirrors structural stresses without reaching COVID-era severity. Despite this turbulence, strategists recommend buying equity dips and anticipate a weakening U.S. dollar alongside bearish oil prices as the market awaits the outcomes of the 90-day tariff pause to stabilize the frenetic trading environment.

  3. Goldman Sachs36 min

    The recession question

    Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. economic forecast from optimistic to pessimistic, estimating a 45–50% recession probability as average tariff rates climb to 15–25%, which simultaneously drives inflation higher and suppresses growth. The firm projects the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points in the near term if a soft landing occurs, though deeper cuts may follow if economic deterioration accelerates. These policy shifts coincide with a paradoxical market environment where Treasury yields and equity volatility rise, the U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies, and global growth forecasts turn negative across 21 of 25 covered economies.

  4. Goldman Sachs32 min

    OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar on the race to build artificial general intelligence

    Sarah Friar, Dan Dees

    Goldman Sachs and OpenAI leaders outline a strategic pivot toward full-stack infrastructure, highlighted by a $500 billion "Stargate" investment plan designed to secure 10 gigawatts of compute power for advanced reasoning models and autonomous agents. This capital deployment addresses severe hardware bottlenecks while driving breakthroughs in O-series models that now achieve PhD-level scientific proficiency and global coding supremacy. With revenue tripling annually and immediate plans to scale AI into education and enterprise banking, OpenAI aims to reach artificial general intelligence capabilities while treating an initial public offering as a long-term objective rather than an immediate priority.

  5. Goldman Sachs11 min

    Recession watch: How to hedge now

    Daan Struyven, Allison Nathan, Don Stryven

    Recorded on April 8, 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts presented a strategic pivot toward hedging with commodities, projecting a 10% rise in gold to $3,300 per ounce under stagnation while forecasting a decline to $55 per barrel for Brent crude by 2026. The presentation detailed a "long gold, short oil" portfolio architecture designed to capitalize on anticipated Fed rate cuts and supply surges, respectively, with recession scenarios potentially pushing gold toward $4,250 or oil below $40. Additionally, the analysis highlighted copper's resilient long-term outlook driven by supply deficits, despite near-term volatility exacerbated by U.S. tariff announcements.

  6. Goldman Sachs36 min

    Bain Capital’s David Gross on global opportunities and private equity’s evolution

    David Gross, Alison Mass

    Bain Capital Co-Managing Partner David Gross outlined a bullish macro strategy targeting Japan's fragmented buyout market, Germany's divestiture wave, and India's stabilizing governance structure while leveraging a dedicated macro team to identify investable themes. To sustain competitive advantage, the firm is scaling its operational capabilities with 130 value creation professionals and deploying a venture arm to integrate disruptive technologies like AI across its portfolio. This approach, underpinned by Bain's private partnership model and disciplined valuation entry, has enabled distribution yields exceeding 30% in North America and positions the firm to navigate current cyclical lows toward a recovery in deployment and liquidity.

  7. Goldman Sachs26 min

    How Robin Hood CEO Rich Buery is addressing NYC’s rising poverty rates

    Rich Buery, Richard Buery, Tony Pasquariello

    The Robin Hood Foundation addresses New York City's rising poverty rate, which has surged to 25% due to expiring pandemic benefits and rising living costs, by deploying a $129 million investment strategy in 2024. This approach combines direct funding for high-impact interventions like the CUNY ASAP program with advocacy for systemic changes and the exploration of AI solutions to expand economic opportunity. Led by CEO Rich Beery, the organization utilizes evidence-based research and public-private partnerships to prioritize early childhood education and policy reforms that yield measurable long-term societal benefits.

  8. Goldman Sachs40 min

    Medal of Honor Recipients share their stories of courage and leadership

    Command Master Chief Britt Slabinski, Captain Florent Groberg, Matt Gibson, Britt Slabinski, Florent Groberg

    Goldman Sachs hosted a special session featuring Medal of Honor recipients Britt Slabinski and Flo Groberg to discuss how military principles of courage, resilience, and teamwork apply to high-performing corporate environments. Drawing from their combat experiences in Afghanistan and subsequent careers, the speakers emphasized that exceptional leadership requires prioritizing team success over individual glory and maintaining human connection even as AI integrates into operations. Their insights provided a framework for organizational culture by advocating for leaders to operate with conviction and compassion, ensuring employees feel valued and aligned with a clear mission.

  9. Goldman Sachs29 min

    AI Exchanges: CIO Marco Argenti on the future of AI in the workplace

    Marco Argenti, George Lee, Allison Nathan

    A Goldman Sachs-led panel analyzes the rapid acceleration of AI reasoning models against the persistent "value gap" created by legacy systems and the behavioral friction of retraining human workflows. While "de novo" enterprises advance faster due to agile structures, the firm is actively cultivating "mindful disruptors" and embedding specific cultural judgment into agents to manage risks like hallucinations and data exfiltration. The dialogue concludes that future success relies on a hybrid workforce where AI agents provide elastic capacity and mechanical execution, leaving high-level creativity and professional oversight to human leaders.

  10. Goldman Sachs45 min

    The future of real estate investing: Pretium’s Don Mullen on the rapidly changing asset class

    Don Mullen, Allison Mass

    Founded by former Goldman Sachs executive Don Mullen in 2012, Pretium has evolved into the largest private owner-operator of single-family homes in the United States by capitalizing on a projected long-term shift from homeownership to renting. The firm leverages its status as a leading non-qualified mortgage lender and distressed asset manager to address systemic housing shortages while expanding its operations into international markets like the UK and Canada. By integrating asset ownership with active management across approximately 150,000 units, Pretium aims to bridge the gap between institutional capital and the needs of self-employed borrowers and families seeking single-family rentals.

  11. Goldman Sachs39 min

    Resilience and Change: Giles Duley & The Legacy of War Foundation

    Giles Duley, Lia Larson

    Former rock photographer Giles Dooley pivoted to humanitarian work in 2004 and became a triple amputee following a 2011 IED attack in Afghanistan. He subsequently founded the Legacy of War Foundation, which transitions from documentary photography to tangible aid projects such as the "Land for Women" initiative in Rwanda that transfers land ownership to female farmers. Dooley advocates for resilience as a gift born from suffering and critiques modern over-protection, emphasizing that sustainable peace requires removing barriers rather than simply telling stories.

  12. Goldman Sachs29 min

    Carl Nassib: NFL star to philanthropy entrepreneur

    Carl Nassib, Susie Scher

    Former NFL player and first openly gay active player Carl Nassib leverages his platform to drive a strategic modernization of philanthropy through the Raise app, aiming to bridge the technological gap between traditional nonprofit infrastructure and a mobile-native donor base. Drawing on his experience as a Penn State Board member, Nassib advocates for comprehensive financial literacy education to prepare both college athletes in the NIL era and retiring athletes for wealth management, while predicting a massive transfer of generational wealth that will redefine future charitable giving.

  13. Goldman Sachs15 min

    Are credit investors nervous about recession risk?

    Lotfi Karoui, Allison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategist Lotfi Karawi attributes recent corporate bond spread widening to a necessary realignment with macro volatility rather than a recessionary collapse, noting that fundamentals remain robust while investors demand higher risk premiums due to trade and policy uncertainties. The firm forecasts Investment Grade spreads to peak between 120 and 125 basis points as market sentiment normalizes, a move that remains far from the 200-basis-point levels required to signal true recessionary stress. Despite the repricing, total return outlooks stay positive supported by high treasury yields, prompting a strategic shift toward defensive, high-quality instruments like agency mortgages while reducing exposure to lower-rated carry trades.

  14. Goldman Sachs13 min

    10KSB Voices Rural Advocacy Conference in DC: David Solomon with Program Graduate & Punchbowl News

    David Solomon, Anna Palmer, Jenny Steffensmeyer

    Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and small business owner Jenny Steffensmeyer discussed critical challenges facing the "10,000 Small Business Voices" program, including capital access, workforce shortages, and a significant rural artificial intelligence adoption gap. Solomon expressed optimism that a Republican-controlled administration will reduce regulatory burdens to stimulate growth, while Steffensmeyer highlighted that technological upskilling remains impossible without affordable financing. To address these disparities, the group urged Congress to deregulate small businesses, simplify SBA lending, and provide incentives to level the competitive playing field.

  15. Goldman Sachs24 min

    What's behind the US equity underperformance?

    Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson

    Josh Schifrin and Dominic Wilson have revised their U.S. year-on-year growth forecast down to 1.7% due to policy uncertainty and weak first-quarter data, anticipating a delay in Federal Reserve rate cuts until June. While the team expects the yield curve to steepen and favors front-end fixed income positions to hedge against economic pain, they caution that "U.S. exceptionalism" is fading as European markets like Germany gain traction through significant fiscal expansion. Ultimately, the strategists predict a volatile near-term environment where short-term labor data may deteriorate further before a recovery emerges, challenging the prevailing thesis that the administration will maintain a growth floor.