Latest Interviews
Showing 1–9 of 9 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs19 min
US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growth
Recent U.S. economic data reveals unexpectedly resilient job growth and stickier inflation stabilizing near 3%, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and AI-related price measurement distortions. Goldman Sachs forecasts core PCE inflation to settle around 2.1% with real GDP growth of 2%, prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through July while shifting its policy stance toward neutralizing inflation regardless of its source. Despite market speculation regarding rate hikes, the primary economic risk remains a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict that could trigger sustained price increases and destabilize financial markets.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
‘Affordability’: Consumer Concerns and Government Proposals
David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Allison Nathan
Amidst a persistent housing affordability crisis driven by regulatory constraints and construction labor shortages, the administration has relied on reactive executive orders to utilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac capacity rather than enacting comprehensive legislative reforms. While these measures aim to modestly lower mortgage rates through increased mortgage-backed security purchases and a ban on institutional single-family home purchases, they fail to address the root causes of supply scarcity or deliver immediate price relief for homeowners. Future policy focus is expected to shift toward zoning incentives and speculative tariff rebates, though significant progress remains hindered by the need for congressional approval and the long-term nature of structural housing deficits.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives
David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists David Miracle, Andrew Tilton, and Yari Stein outline regional economic forecasts for 2026, projecting 2.5% US growth driven by tax cuts and Fed rate reductions alongside a resilient 4.8% expansion in China fueled by manufacturing competitiveness. The analysis highlights contrasting monetary trajectories, including the Bank of Japan's aggressive tightening to 0.75% and the ECB's projected rate hold, while warning of US labor market uncertainties and European structural weaknesses. These insights, recorded on January 7, 2026, serve as the second installment of the Outlook 2026 series, setting the stage for subsequent asset class discussions.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Making Sense of Weak Job Growth Alongside Solid GDP Growth
Despite tariffs reaching eight times 2019 levels and a three-week government shutdown subtracting from growth, U.S. GDP resilience is maintained by a depreciating dollar, stable stock markets, and a productivity rebound to historical averages. Core inflation is projected to normalize toward the 2% target as supply chains recover, supporting the Federal Reserve's current expectation of three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts through the end of the year. While immigration drops have constrained labor supply and AI adoption remains limited to specific sectors, policymakers anticipate maintaining a moderate expansion path unless post-shutdown data reveals significant deviations from current forecasts.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
How tariffs will impact the US economy
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Miracle, joined by host Alison Nathan in a March 10 *Exchanges* episode, revised the full-year effective tariff forecast upward to approximately 10 percentage points, driven by implementations on Canada, Mexico, and proposed auto duties. Consequently, the firm lowered its 2025 GDP growth outlook to 1.7% and raised the recession probability to 20%, while maintaining a Federal Reserve rate-cutting trajectory that diverges from market expectations due to elevated inflation near 3%. Although Miracle dismisses the current environment as true stagflation, he warns that expanded trade policy uncertainty poses a more severe risk to business investment and hiring than in 2019.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
What investors expect from Trump
A Goldman Sachs survey of over 500 investors reveals that the market anticipates a universal tariff as the primary 2025 macro risk while expecting the 2017 tax cuts to be extended alongside a stabilization of net immigration near 750,000 annually. Although investors assign a 35% probability to a universal tariff and project modest additional tax cuts, their outlook suggests that the inflationary pressure from policy shifts will remain contained, allowing the Federal Reserve to prioritize growth and pursue rate cuts. Goldman Sachs concludes that while temporary growth drag may occur in 2025 due to the earlier implementation of immigration and tariff measures, the long-term growth trajectory will remain largely unchanged as fiscal constraints limit further significant tax or spending expansions.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
Why US recession fears are likely overblown
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Miracle attributes recent global market sell-offs to an overreaction against a July jobs report where unemployment rose primarily due to weather-related time off and temporary layoffs rather than a structural economic breakdown. While Miracle has increased the firm's 12-month recession probability to 25% to reflect softer labor data, he maintains that hard indicators like permanent jobless claims remain historically low, suggesting the economy is merely decelerating from an unsustainable 2023 peak. Consequently, Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts in September, November, and December to support growth, rejecting the likelihood of an emergency intervention given the central bank's substantial policy flexibility.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Can the US consumer stay strong?
David Mericle, Kate McShane, Bonnie Herzog, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist David Miracle projects moderate U.S. consumption growth in 2024, attributing current resilience to strong household balance sheets while warning that unemployment risks could trigger a shift to job loss. Retail analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog observe a bifurcated consumer environment where spending prioritizes services and essentials while lower-income demographics defer discretionary purchases and trade down to private labels. Despite these pressures, the market faces further headwinds from a five-day shorter holiday shopping window, persistent price levels, and election uncertainty, leading management to adopt cautious strategies focused on revenue growth and value optimization.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Are inflation fears overblown? The outlook for inflation, US growth, and long-term rates
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024, driven by labor supply expansions from immigration that prevent overheating despite disinflation from shelter rents. The firm argues the neutral interest rate has structurally shifted to 3.0%–3.5%, forecasting Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in July 2024 as financial conditions remain accommodative. This outlook suggests a balanced labor market and mechanical rent adjustments will allow inflation to trend toward 2.5% without triggering wage-price spirals.