Latest Interviews
Showing 16–28 of 28 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs36 min
The recession question
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. economic forecast from optimistic to pessimistic, estimating a 45–50% recession probability as average tariff rates climb to 15–25%, which simultaneously drives inflation higher and suppresses growth. The firm projects the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points in the near term if a soft landing occurs, though deeper cuts may follow if economic deterioration accelerates. These policy shifts coincide with a paradoxical market environment where Treasury yields and equity volatility rise, the U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies, and global growth forecasts turn negative across 21 of 25 covered economies.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
What's behind the US equity underperformance?
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Josh Schifrin and Dominic Wilson have revised their U.S. year-on-year growth forecast down to 1.7% due to policy uncertainty and weak first-quarter data, anticipating a delay in Federal Reserve rate cuts until June. While the team expects the yield curve to steepen and favors front-end fixed income positions to hedge against economic pain, they caution that "U.S. exceptionalism" is fading as European markets like Germany gain traction through significant fiscal expansion. Ultimately, the strategists predict a volatile near-term environment where short-term labor data may deteriorate further before a recovery emerges, challenging the prevailing thesis that the administration will maintain a growth floor.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Macro questions and market strength
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzias and Dominic Wilson project that 2025 U.S. real GDP will grow by approximately 2.5% despite an effective tariff increase of 4–7 percentage points, a scenario where tailwinds continue to outweigh policy headwinds. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates later in the year due to sticky but manageable inflation, markets remain resilient near record highs driven by strong consumer income growth and a pricing dynamic that favors offshore equities. The analysts warn that aggressive tariff implementation poses a significant tail risk for growth and bond yields, yet they maintain that the current low recession probability supports a gradual upward drift in risk assets.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
AI Shake-Up and US Exceptionalism
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Dominic Wilson and Josh Schifrin analyze the "DeepSeek" AI disruption as a pivotal shift challenging U.S. dominance while reaffirming persistent corporate spending driven by competitive incentives. The speakers outline a Federal Reserve likely to hold rates steady pending economic clarity, forecasting potential cuts only if labor weakens or inflation trends clearly toward 2%. Despite market volatility, the panel maintains a bullish conviction in global equities and a steeper yield curve, cautioning investors to account for underpriced tariff risks and the evolving complexity of the AI investment landscape.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
2025 outlook: Will tailwinds trump tariffs?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Yann, Dom, Tom, David, Alec, Dami, Yuan
Forecasts project U.S. real GDP growth at 2.5% for 2025, driven by real wage gains and moderate financial conditions, while maintaining a 15% recession probability. The outlook hinges on tariff scenarios, where base case assumptions assume limited trade barriers, though a full across-the-board tariff risk could reduce growth by one percentage point and raise inflation toward 3%. Consequently, investors are advised to hedge equity concentration risks with non-U.S. bonds and options while anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts that target a federal funds range of 3.25% to 3.5% by late 2025.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
Post-election market outlook
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Strategists Dominic Wilson and Josh Schifrin analyze the post-election market surge, attributing the rally in US equities, the dollar, and bond yields to a convergence of upgraded growth prospects and pro-growth policy expectations. While the Federal Reserve is forecasted to implement a December rate cut and adopt a cautious "destination mode," the pair highlights persistent tail risks including tariff volatility, valuation concerns, and a heavy concentration of capital in US assets. Their outlook recommends a long-equity and long-dollar portfolio position to navigate an expected year-end transition into a choppier, policy-sensitive trading environment.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Why the global economy and markets can continue to outperform in 2024
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs reports that the global economy outperformed 2023 forecasts, with the U.S. avoiding recession through post-pandemic normalization while equity markets mispriced resilience against aggressive rate hikes. Looking ahead to 2024, the firm projects modest global growth and declining inflation, predicting that risky assets like equities and commodities will outperform cash as central banks approach a peak in policy rates before gradual cuts begin in the second half of the year. Despite elevated long-term interest rates and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions, the investment strategy emphasizes a shift toward diversified portfolios to capitalize on AI-driven earnings and supply-side commodity pressures.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023 despite a baseline forecast for positive growth driven by cooling inflation and a labor market correction via reduced job openings. The firm anticipates Federal Reserve funds rates peaking between 5% and 5.25% by May, followed by a pause and potential cuts in late 2024 as inflation targets 3%. While U.S. equity valuations remain constrained by tight labor and rich pricing, emerging markets and Europe offer deeper discounts supported by anticipated global growth recovery and a structurally weakening dollar.
- Goldman Sachs33 min
What’s Ahead for Global Economies and Markets in 2022?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects global growth to reach 4.5% in 2022 as post-pandemic reopening boosts fade, yet maintains optimism driven by household savings and continued vaccine efficacy. The outlook features regional divergence with advanced economies outperforming emerging markets like China, which faces deceleration due to property sector weaknesses, while inflation forecasts are revised upward for the US and UK amid potential wage-driven pressures. Consequently, monetary policy is expected to shift from tapering to rate hikes starting mid-2022, creating a volatile market environment where rising real yields could test equity valuations and elevate bond yields across major economies.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Reflation Risk
Allison Nathan, Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius debated whether U.S. fiscal stimulus will trigger a 1970s-style inflationary spiral, with Hatzius arguing that a 6% output gap and temporary spending measures justify the Federal Reserve's tolerance for average inflation targeting. While bond market strategist Dominic Wilson noted that recent yield increases reflect growth acceleration rather than policy surprises, the consensus suggests a rotation into cyclical assets as investors anticipate Fed rate hikes beginning in early 2022. Goldman Sachs projects tapering in early 2022 with a first rate hike in 2024, advising investors to favor cyclical equities and non-gold commodities over rate-sensitive growth stocks during this transition.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
A Vaccine-Led Recovery
Goldman Sachs Research has revised its central growth case to a 2021 recovery trajectory following a surge in vaccine approval probabilities from 10% to 50% by late October. While near-term growth forecasts for the US and Europe face downward pressure from rising case counts, the firm projects a 2% GDP uplift by year-end 2021, driving market rotations into commodity and emerging market sectors. Investors are advised to navigate interim volatility caused by operational distribution risks and policy gaps, relying on the vaccine's timeline as a medium-term anchor for global economic acceleration starting in the second quarter of 2021.
- Goldman Sachs12 min
Pricing the Probability of Virus Risks
A research framework establishes three economic growth scenarios mapped to implied S&P 500 levels, ranging from a baseline recovery at 3,250 to an upside potential of 3,520 should a vaccine arrive by early 2021. Market dynamics reflect a tug-of-war between accelerating case numbers and emerging stabilization efforts, with volatility resolving as investors weigh risks of renewed restrictions against growing probability of a successful vaccine. Near-term catalysts will likely determine whether moderate mitigation measures can control infections sufficiently to relax downside fears and sustain current valuations.
- Goldman Sachs41 min
Speaker Series for Interns: Senior Economists from Global Investment Research
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Allison Nathan
Jan and co-speakers assess the post-2009 global economy as significantly improved from a Depression scenario yet still hampered by insufficient stimulus, premature fiscal tightening, and slow central bank responses. While US growth is forecast to accelerate to roughly 2.7% by mid-2014 driven by housing and demographics, supporting equity upside despite rich valuations, Europe and Japan face subdued growth and inflation challenges requiring more aggressive monetary easing. The analysts predict the Federal Reserve will hold rates near zero until early 2016 due to hidden labor market slack, whereas emerging markets are navigating a painful 12-to-18-month correction phase before resuming their long-term role as primary global growth engines.