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  1. Goldman Sachs14 min

    Oil Market Impacts from Iran

    Daan Struyven, Alison Nathan, Don Stroivind

    A U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering a significant disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and causing Brent crude prices to surge 25% year-to-date. While Goldman Sachs forecasts a base case of no sustained supply interruptions with prices stabilizing by late 2026, the market currently prices in a risk premium for a potential one-month closure that could drive costs to triple digits. As global spare capacity remains trapped by the blockade and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels remain low, the situation presents immediate inflationary risks and elevated geopolitical tail risks for Gulf Cooperation Council infrastructure.

  2. All-In Podcast49 min

    Ray Dalio: "AI Is Eating Everything - and It Might Eat Itself"

    Ray Dalio, Dave, Chamath, Jason, Friedberg

    Ray Dalio identifies the United States as being in Stage 5 of a long-term cycle, marked by a $2 trillion deficit, 600% debt-to-GDP ratio, and deepening political polarization that necessitates a bipartisan "3% solution" to stabilize the economy. He argues that traditional fiscal tools are insufficient, recommending a strategic 5% to 15% allocation to gold as the only reliable store of value against the impending erosion of fiat currency and geopolitical trade conflicts. Ultimately, Dalio warns that systemic recovery requires a strong leader to enforce structural reforms, manage the transition away from unsustainable trade deficits, and ensure national productivity amid rising technological and social instability.

  3. The Economist10 min

    Will the Iranian regime collapse? | The Economist

    Shashank Joshi, Rosie Blau

    US and Israeli forces are executing a decapitation strategy against the Islamic Republic of Iran's security apparatus, targeting senior figures like General Vahidi while neutralizing half of Tehran's ballistic missile capabilities. Despite inflicting significant damage on command structures and nuclear research sites, the conflict faces logistical risks as regional air defenses may deplete after a week of intense retaliation and accidental strikes have already resulted in American casualties. Ultimately, the war's trajectory hinges on whether the regime collapses under pressure or if political constraints force a reversal of the stated goal of regime change.

  4. Sourcery with Molly O'Shea54 min

    $1.9B AUM. 200+ Investments. 54 Exits. Inside M13

    Courtney Reum, Carter Reum, Molly O'Shea

    M13, led by founders Courtney Cowan and Carter Walden, executes a disciplined early-stage strategy across Future Work, Health, Commerce, and Money by out-executing competitors through a $1 million annual operating platform and a 1% daily improvement philosophy. The firm leverages a team of operator backgrounds to secure 20% ownership in portfolio companies, driving Series B valuations 25% higher than the market median and achieving 54 exits including early stakes in Ring and Pinterest. While prioritizing the second and third waves of AI disruption to avoid capital arms races with giants, M13 applies asymmetrical risk/reward logic to build a top-decile fund utilizing Los Angeles as a primary hub for creator and consumer innovation.

  5. The Economist7 min

    What's China really up to in the Arctic? | The Economist

    Jeremy Page, Sarah Wu

    China aims to establish itself as a "polar great power" by 2030 through its "Polar Silk Road" initiative, which seeks to leverage the retreating Arctic ice to secure economic advantages via the Northern Sea Route and access natural resources. While Beijing has deepened cooperation with Russia and attempted infrastructure projects in Greenland and Nordic countries, these efforts face mounting resistance from NATO members who suspect military-civil fusion and demand prioritized security over scientific engagement. The inclusion of Sweden and Finland into the alliance has further complicated China's strategic goals by shifting the regional balance toward defense, thereby hindering Beijing's ambitions to expand its footprint in the Arctic.

  6. All-In Podcast1h 21m

    Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot

    Trump, Friedberg, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks

    The event analyzes a dramatic market shift where Anthropic's AI announcements triggered significant stock declines across legal, security, and computing sectors, signaling a transition from debating AI's timeline to questioning the survival of current business models. Concurrently, the discussion contrasts this volatility with a labor paradox where rising AI tool costs drive higher engineering demand, while highlighting structural constraints in energy infrastructure and a Supreme Court ruling that temporarily stalled executive tariff powers. The session concludes by examining breakthrough medical trials for aging reversal and noting a political climate where legislative polarization has deepened despite moments of rare bipartisan agreement.

  7. The Economist9 min

    What would be the point of an American strike on Iran? | The Economist

    Edward Carr, Ed, Shashank, Greg

    Two US aircraft carrier strike groups and over 100 fighter jets, including F-22s landed in Israel, have assembled in the Gulf and Mediterranean to execute high-intensity strikes without establishing a large-scale ground presence in Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Analysts warn that the undefined strategic aim—ranging from punitive punishment to coercive diplomacy or regime change—fundamentally determines the conflict's duration and feasibility. Negotiations remain deadlocked over specific nuclear constraints, as Washington seeks a permanent agreement eliminating sunset clauses while Iran resists total uranium enrichment restrictions.

  8. Y Combinator20 min

    The Powerful Alternative To Fine-Tuning

    Ian Fischer, Mark Mandelbaum, Francesc Campoy Flores, Mark Mandelmann, Jr.

    Poetic, led by co-CEO Ian Fisher, deploys a recursive Meta-System that autonomously optimizes foundation models to outperform them on benchmarks like Arc AGI v2 and the Humanity's Last Exam at a fraction of the cost. This stealth-stage platform functions as a cost-effective "stilts" for startups, achieving 9 percentage point gains over competing models while utilizing a lean team of seven scientists rather than massive training budgets. The company now invites early access from ventures seeking to integrate these self-improving reasoning strategies into their specific verticals.

  9. Goldman Sachs10 min

    A New Way to Trade Emerging Markets

    Stratford Dennis, Chris Hussey

    Global emerging market equities have surged 15% year-to-date on $45 billion in inflows, driven by strong earnings fundamentals and a weaker US dollar that specifically benefits non-China regions like Korea and Brazil. While broad markets rally, China lags due to a lack of earnings growth and tariff headwinds, prompting investors to shift capital toward Latin American assets and structural plays like call spreads to manage valuation risks. Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish stance on this "EM ex-China" exposure, citing anticipated Brazilian interest rate cuts and election cycles as key catalysts for continued, albeit slower, appreciation.

  10. Sourcery with Molly O'Shea23 min

    Revel: The $1B Startup Rewriting Hardware Control

    Scott Morton, Dylan Field, Molly O'Shea

    Founded by former SpaceX engineer Scott Morton, Revel is a platform that replaces obsolete legacy control software with modern tools to accelerate hardware testing frequency by up to tenfold. The 15-month-old company recently closed a $150 million Series A led by Index Ventures and Redpoint, achieving a billion-dollar valuation after securing high-conversion pilots with clients like Impulse and Astromechanica. Revel aims to democratize hardware engineering by enabling generalists to manage critical systems in aerospace and energy sectors while expanding into wastewater infrastructure and major industrial partnerships.

  11. The Economist6 min

    How “El Mencho’s” death could reshape Mexico’s largest cartel | The Economist

    El Mencho, Sarah Birke, Jason Palmer

    Following the capture and death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, immediate widespread violence erupted across 15 to 20 Mexican states before subsiding by Tuesday. This high-stakes operation, driven by diplomatic pressure from the United States and a strategic shift in Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum's security agenda, demonstrates advanced tactical capabilities while exposing the cartel's military-grade assets. Despite the short-term stabilization, experts warn that removing such a dominant figure often triggers long-term fragmentation and internecine conflict, posing a significant threat to the upcoming World Cup co-hosted in Guadalajara.

  12. Sourcery with Molly O'Shea33 min

    Inside Opendoor HQ on Earnings Day (Office Tour + Live Stream)

    Kaz Nejatian, Michael Judd, Molly O'Shea

    Opendoor is reshaping its corporate identity under CEO Kaz Nejatian and former CEO Keith Raziani by adopting a militant "Open Army" culture and pioneering live, digital-first investor relations on platforms like Robinhood. This strategic pivot accompanies a technical overhaul where leadership prioritizes core stability over cosmetic improvements, resulting in a ten-week mortgage product launch and a hybrid design system strategy. By expanding from simple transactions into a comprehensive home-moving ecosystem, the company aims to empower average Americans through high transparency and merchant services that mimic Shopify's model.

  13. The Economist8 min

    Why does Elon Musk want to put data centres in space? | The Economist

    Elon Musk, Tom Standage, Alex Hern

    Elon Musk has merged XAI into SpaceX and filed an FCC application to deploy one million satellites, aiming to establish orbital data centers powered by sun-synchronous orbits to achieve terawatt-scale annual capacity. While Musk targets lunar manufacturing and mass drivers to lower launch costs, OpenAI's Sam Altman and industry analysts currently dismiss the concept as technically infeasible due to prohibitive expenses and unrepairable hardware failure rates. Despite this skepticism, competitors including StarCloud, Google, Jeff Bezos, and Eric Schmidt are advancing their own pilot projects or securing launch capacity to test the viability of space-based computing.

  14. Goldman Sachs32 min

    Board Governance in 2026: AI Oversight, Activism, and Delaware’s Edge

    Larry Cunningham, John F.W. Rogers

    The University of Delaware's John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance marked its 25th anniversary by unveiling the book *Boardroom Legacy*, which contextualizes John L. Weinberg's 1948 thesis on board stewardship through contributions from fifteen scholars and support from Goldman Sachs. Symposium speakers highlighted Weinberg's prescient advocacy for independent audit committees and CEO oversight while discussing modern governance challenges, including SEC Chair Paul Atkins' intent to reform shareholder proposal processes and the persistent market dominance of Delaware's legal infrastructure. Additionally, the event explored Warren Buffett's enduring influence on corporate succession planning and capital allocation strategies, cementing the center's role as a hub for bridging historical governance principles with contemporary regulatory and strategic realities.

  15. Sourcery with Molly O'Shea59 min

    Inside Opendoor: The $2.8B Bet with CEO Kaz Nejatian

    Kaz Nejatian, Molly O'Shea, Tobi Lütke, Keith Rabois, Max Weber

    CEO Kaz has fundamentally restructured OpenDoor by slashing external spending, enforcing a return to in-office work, and automating property assessments with AI to shift the company from a legacy real estate model to a high-efficiency technical entity. Operating with a $1 annual salary and an intensely hands-on board, Kaz is prioritizing long-term execution over short-term stock performance while replacing standard management with Y Combinator founders to instill a rigorous "founder mentality." This aggressive turnaround aims to stabilize the balance sheet and revolutionize the broken housing market, accepting significant short-term attrition to build a sustainable, high-alpha business.