Latest Interviews
Showing 1–8 of 8 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023 despite a baseline forecast for positive growth driven by cooling inflation and a labor market correction via reduced job openings. The firm anticipates Federal Reserve funds rates peaking between 5% and 5.25% by May, followed by a pause and potential cuts in late 2024 as inflation targets 3%. While U.S. equity valuations remain constrained by tight labor and rich pricing, emerging markets and Europe offer deeper discounts supported by anticipated global growth recovery and a structurally weakening dollar.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Will Slaying Inflation Require Recession?
Jan Hatzius, Olivier Blanchard, Alison Nathan
Olivier Blanchard and Jan Hatzius present conflicting views on whether the post-pandemic labor market can rebalance through reduced vacancies without triggering a recession, with Blanchard predicting unemployment must rise to 6–7% to tame inflation while Hatzius forecasts a modest 4.2% increase by late 2024. Blanchard attributes current structural mismatches and wage-price spirals to a higher natural rate of unemployment requiring severe economic contraction, whereas Hatzius attributes high vacancies to temporary supply constraints that are now resolving through decelerating growth rather than layoffs. The debate highlights divergent recession probabilities, with Blanchard viewing a downturn as inevitable under current Fed tightening and Hatzius estimating a 30% chance over the next year as the economy navigates a potential soft landing.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
Rick Rieder, CIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock and Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist, Goldman Sachs
Rick Rieder, Jan Hatzius, Tony Pasquariello
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and BlackRock's Rick Reeder debate the trajectory of U.S. inflation, with Hatzius forecasting a return to 2% by next year while Reeder warns of structural stickiness driven by wage pressures and corporate pricing power. The panelists assess the sustainability of current U.S. debt levels through low real interest rates and critique past fiscal interventions, noting that the 2021 American Rescue Plan was larger than necessary compared to the decisive pandemic response. Shifting to investment strategy, Reeder advocates for growth equities and European credit, whereas Hatzius emphasizes evolving forecast models that prioritize probability distributions over single-point predictions to navigate the current economic regime.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Outlook for Global Growth: Less Synchronized, More Complicated
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a November 2021 announcement for asset purchase tapering while Goldman Sachs lowered its 2021 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 6% amid rising virus cases and global supply chain disruptions. Despite revising core PCE inflation expectations upward to 3.75% for the current year, the central bank anticipates the spike will remain temporary and defer rate hikes until potentially mid-2023. This cautious stance aims to balance the risk of new viral variants and the expiration of unemployment benefits, which together are expected to drive approximately 1.5 million additional jobs by late 2021.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Reflation Risk
Allison Nathan, Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius debated whether U.S. fiscal stimulus will trigger a 1970s-style inflationary spiral, with Hatzius arguing that a 6% output gap and temporary spending measures justify the Federal Reserve's tolerance for average inflation targeting. While bond market strategist Dominic Wilson noted that recent yield increases reflect growth acceleration rather than policy surprises, the consensus suggests a rotation into cyclical assets as investors anticipate Fed rate hikes beginning in early 2022. Goldman Sachs projects tapering in early 2022 with a first rate hike in 2024, advising investors to favor cyclical equities and non-gold commodities over rate-sensitive growth stocks during this transition.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Markets Update: 2021 Global Growth Outlook
Jan Hatzius, Jake Seward, Joe Wall
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzias projects a 6.4% U.S. GDP growth for 2021, driven by a projected $750 billion stimulus package and a spring recovery accelerated by vaccinations. Global forecasts anticipate a robust 5-6% rebound in Europe and slightly below 8% growth in China, while central banks maintain a dovish stance with no interest rate hikes expected until 2024 or 2025. The analysis concludes that the crisis highlighted the efficacy of aggressive fiscal intervention and the adaptability of market economies despite persistent structural shifts in employment and productivity.
- Goldman Sachs53 min
The CARES Act and its Impact on the US Economic Outlook
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, William G. Gale, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani, Bill Gale
On March 31, 2020, Goldman Sachs hosted a client call featuring Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and external fiscal experts to analyze the CARES Act and downgrade the 2020 U.S. economic outlook to a record contraction. The discussion detailed the legislation's targeted relief components, including expanded unemployment benefits, direct stimulus checks, and $46 billion in aid for the airline industry, alongside projections that Q2 GDP will fall approximately 10% with net debt-to-GDP rising above 100%. Despite these severe short-term headwinds, experts concluded that low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's potential $4.5 trillion lending capacity would likely prevent a sovereign debt crisis.