Alison Nathan
Showing 91–105 of 137 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
How Porsche CEO Oliver Blume is driving innovation
Oliver Blume, Christoph Stanger, Alison Nathan
Porsche's recent European IPO, the largest by market capitalization in the region, successfully secured billions in cornerstone commitments from Goldman Sachs to stabilize the offering amidst macro volatility. CEO Oliver Blum now directs the company toward a "Road to 20" strategy aiming for over 20% return on sales by leveraging Volkswagen Group scale while maintaining luxury pricing power. The automaker targets 80% global electric deliveries by 2030, aligning its product roadmap with regional recovery trends in China and North America to capitalize on its 75th anniversary as a sports car manufacturer.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
What’s driving the surge in shareholder activism activity?
Avinash Mehrotra, Pamela Codo-Lotti, Alison Nathan, Avi Mehrotra, Pam Kodoloti
By March 2023, activist investor campaigns reached pre-pandemic intensity with a record $13.13 billion raised by Elliot Management, driving a surge in pressure on one in four S&P 500 companies and expanding into large-cap targets in Japan and Europe. Activists are shifting strategies from inorganic growth to operational efficiency and capital returns, utilizing new universal proxy rules and increased capital availability to target defensive corporations in tech, healthcare, and industrials. As multiple investors increasingly "swarm" single firms, companies are responding by adopting proactive, data-driven governance reviews to preemptively address vulnerabilities in board composition and capital allocation.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
How much higher can bond yields go?
Rick Rieder, Praveen Korapaty, Alison Nathan, Praveen Kaurapati
BlackRock's Rick Reeder and Goldman Sachs analysts project the Federal Reserve has peaked with rates likely to stay elevated to protect millions of jobs while inflation remains sticky. Global central banks are diverging as the Bank of Japan adjusts its yield curve control and the ECB hikes toward 4%, prompting investors to favor European assets and high-yielding short-duration cash over U.S. credit. This strategic shift aims to capture over 5% annualized returns on the front end of the yield curve while navigating a structurally higher neutral rate environment.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Is it time to invest in emerging markets?
Kay Haigh, Hiren Dasani, Alison Nathan
Despite projected tepid headline earnings growth, emerging market equities are poised for a recovery driven by structural gains in non-commodity sectors and a faster-than-anticipated Chinese economic reopening. This optimism is bolstered by resilient fundamentals in markets like India and Mexico, which offer double-digit earnings growth forecasts alongside attractive valuations trading at a significant discount to U.S. counterparts. While sovereign debt risks persist in fiscally weak nations like Ghana and Zambia, investment strategies are shifting toward high-quality corporate debt and equity leaders in consumer, financial, and technology sectors benefiting from stabilizing liquidity conditions.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
As China reopens, what’s ahead for commodities in 2023?
Goldman Sachs economists project a 43% rally in commodities during 2023, driven by a convergence of China's economic rebound, persistent supply constraints, and a structural underinvestment cycle that mirrors the bullish conditions of 2007. Key demand drivers include a surge in Chinese oil and copper consumption alongside Europe's urgent need for energy capacity, while OPEC's pricing power remains elevated due to limited spare production outside the Gulf region. Consequently, the report positions the complex as a superior hedge against inflation and market volatility, with copper offering a steadier risk-adjusted return compared to the higher volatility expected in oil markets.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
The global economy in 2075: Growth slows as Asia rises
Goldman Sachs Research has released its 2024 iteration of the long-term global economic forecast, extending the projection horizon to 2075 across 104 economies to analyze structural drivers like demographics and productivity. The study predicts a global population peak of 10 billion by 2050, which will decelerate growth but enable low-income emerging markets to continue converging with developed nations, ultimately driving China to overtake the US economy by 2035 and India to catch up by 2075. While these structural trends support a shift of investment and corporate expansion toward emerging markets, the outlook remains vulnerable to specific risks including rising protectionism and climate change impacts on vulnerable economies.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023 despite a baseline forecast for positive growth driven by cooling inflation and a labor market correction via reduced job openings. The firm anticipates Federal Reserve funds rates peaking between 5% and 5.25% by May, followed by a pause and potential cuts in late 2024 as inflation targets 3%. While U.S. equity valuations remain constrained by tight labor and rich pricing, emerging markets and Europe offer deeper discounts supported by anticipated global growth recovery and a structurally weakening dollar.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
M&A in 2023: A complex but optimistic outlook for deal-making
Stephan Feldgoise, Mark Sorrell, Alison Nathan, Stefan Felgoys
The 2022 M&A market experienced a sharp downturn in the second half driven by rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, which caused private equity activity to slow while strategic deals and mega-transactions remained resilient due to strong balance sheets. As valuation gaps widened between public and private sectors, boards shifted their focus from growth multiples to cost of capital, prompting a surge in structured transactions and increased activism targeting operational improvements. Looking toward 2023, Goldman Sachs projects a recovery fueled by record private capital liquidity and attractive valuations, provided financing markets stabilize enough to allow debt syndication without prolonged deal delays.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
What’s next for crypto regulations?
Jay Clayton, Timothy Massad, Marcel Kasumovich, Gary Gorton, Alison Nathan
Following the collapse of major industry players like FTX, former SEC Chair Jay Clayton and former CFTC Chair Timothy Massad advocate for immediate joint standards and a self-regulatory organization to address jurisdictional gaps while enforcing existing laws. This proposed framework aims to balance innovation with investor protection by establishing common rules for asset custody and fraud prevention, despite ongoing debate over whether the current regulatory environment suffers from a lack of clarity or inadequate federal oversight. While experts agree on the resilience of underlying blockchain technology, consensus is shifting toward the imminent introduction of stablecoin regulations and potential Central Bank Digital Currencies to mitigate systemic financial risks.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
The Outlook for Financial Services
Richard Ramsden, Alex Blostein, Alison Nathan
Banking executives report strong current performance and record-low loan losses despite widespread market fears of a recession, as capital markets and M&A activity remain suppressed by high interest rates and valuation resets. Strategic priorities are shifting toward digitalization, alternative assets, and energy transition to counter margin compression, while lenders maintain stable underwriting standards and anticipate a gradual normalization of credit conditions. Although investors anticipate a recovery in capital market activity in the second half of 2023, the sector continues to navigate significant uncertainty regarding unemployment, commercial real estate values, and the broader macroeconomic impact of Federal Reserve tightening.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Asset Allocation Outlook for 2023: Greater Diversification and Divergence
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analyzes 2022's market turbulence, where real yield spikes and inflation-driven volatility caused equities and crypto to decline while commodities and the US dollar surged, fundamentally breaking traditional asset correlations. Looking ahead to 2023, the firm forecasts a high probability of recession and persistent market volatility as investors shift from the "TINA" narrative to seeking reasonable fixed income alternatives and real assets. Strategically, the outlook suggests avoiding overvalued cyclical equities while capitalizing on valuation discounts in international markets and a potential rotation away from the US dollar as it peaks.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Europe’s Energy Crisis: End in sight or far from over?
Samantha Dart, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Europe is navigating the current energy crisis with a heightened risk outlook driven by mild weather and robust gas storage, yet structural supply gaps and delayed LNG projects will necessitate recurring demand management through 2024. While geopolitical sanctions and price caps aim to redistribute Russian oil flows, Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude reaching $115 per barrel alongside a projected Eurozone recession starting in late 2022 due to persistent inflation. Ultimately, the region faces a volatile trajectory where industrial activity is already contracting and government interventions risk creating future fiscal cliffs if weather patterns turn colder or China's demand rebounds.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
Taking Stock: What’s Ahead for US Markets
Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to remain in bear market territory through early 2023, with a baseline forecast of closing at 3,600 before potentially dropping to 3,150 if aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes trigger a recession. Investors are currently adopting a risk-off stance by reducing leverage and holding higher cash levels, reflecting a market shift where positive real yields favor safe assets over equities as inflation remains stubborn. While the energy sector is expected to drive Q3 earnings growth, the broader market faces margin compression and earnings declines outside of energy, delaying a market recovery until inflation clarity emerges in mid-2023.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Breaking Down the Dollar’s Rise
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts project further U.S. dollar appreciation driven by America's overheating economy and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, which contrast with the constrained monetary policies of the ECB, BOJ, and PBOC. While this strength aids U.S. inflation goals, it forces non-U.S. economies into a difficult trade-off between accepting currency depreciation or risking domestic growth through aggressive tightening, with emerging markets facing severe debt vulnerabilities. Exceptions like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have resisted these trends by initiating earlier rate hikes, yet analysts anticipate the dollar's dominance will persist until U.S. inflation peaks and global growth stabilizes, unlikely before 2023.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Will Slaying Inflation Require Recession?
Jan Hatzius, Olivier Blanchard, Alison Nathan
Olivier Blanchard and Jan Hatzius present conflicting views on whether the post-pandemic labor market can rebalance through reduced vacancies without triggering a recession, with Blanchard predicting unemployment must rise to 6–7% to tame inflation while Hatzius forecasts a modest 4.2% increase by late 2024. Blanchard attributes current structural mismatches and wage-price spirals to a higher natural rate of unemployment requiring severe economic contraction, whereas Hatzius attributes high vacancies to temporary supply constraints that are now resolving through decelerating growth rather than layoffs. The debate highlights divergent recession probabilities, with Blanchard viewing a downturn as inevitable under current Fed tightening and Hatzius estimating a 30% chance over the next year as the economy navigates a potential soft landing.