Alison Nathan
Showing 121–135 of 137 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
A ‘Seismic’ Shift in Private Markets
Goldman Sachs co-president Mike Kester outlines a private market sector growing to $10 trillion that is undergoing a seismic shift toward individual investor participation while navigating a fundraising slowdown driven by the denominator effect. Despite regulatory pressures and a transition away from financial engineering toward active operational management, the industry continues to deliver consistent excess returns and is prioritizing sectors like infrastructure and life sciences. Kester projects that while capital raising will decelerate and valuation reporting standards will tighten, systemic risk remains low due to the pre-syndication of risk to long-term limited partners.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
Is (De)globalization Ahead?
Adam Posen, Dani Rodrik, Jim O'Neill, Alison Nathan, Danny Roderick
At a recent economic symposium, Adam Posen, Danny Rodrick, and Jim O'Neill debated whether the post-Cold War era of globalization is facing a reversal or merely a structural shift driven by the Ukraine war and pandemic. While Posen and Rodrick warn that geopolitical friction is fragmenting the global economy into U.S. and Chinese blocs that may reinforce secular stagnation, O'Neill counters that trade growth has recently accelerated and argues for profit-focused reforms to address inequality. The consensus suggests that future economic stability will depend less on international trade frameworks and more on domestic policies prioritizing labor rights, technology dissemination, and the mitigation of inequality.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
How China’s ‘Perfect Storm’ and Economic Headwinds Are Affecting Markets and Investors
Kinger Lau, Hui Shan, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts analyze China's current economic stagnation driven by Omicron lockdowns and a severe property downturn, noting that structural constraints and geopolitical tensions limit the government's ability to stimulate growth through traditional methods. Despite these headwinds forcing a downward revision of long-term growth forecasts to 4-5%, the firm argues that significant risks are already priced into equities trading below 10x forward earnings, suggesting a constructive six-to-twelve-month outlook. Investors are advised to align portfolios with policy-supported sectors like semiconductors and green energy, anticipating potential valuation recovery contingent on a soft landing and avoided global recession.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Rising Stagflation Risks Are Changing the Investment Playbook
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Maria Vassalou, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts Christian Mueller-Glissman and Maria Basselou warn that the post-2008 investment regime is ending, creating significant risks for traditional 60-40 portfolios as structural headwinds like higher inflation and compressed margins threaten to deliver real returns below historical averages. In response, the firm advocates replacing passive strategies and government bonds with dynamic allocations into real assets, private infrastructure, and non-US equity markets to hedge against stagflation and navigate expected recessionary pressures. This shift prioritizes active management and geographic diversification, moving away from US dominance toward commodity exporters and value-driven regions to capture growth in a dis-integrating global economy.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Europe’s Digital Economy: What’s Driving Europe’s Tech Acceleration
Lisa Yang, Alexander Duval, Alison Nathan
Driven by supportive policies and pandemic-induced acceleration, Europe's digital economy has doubled its number of tech unicorns and tripled venture capital funding to nearly $92 billion while legacy firms like L'Oréal and SAP pivot to Direct-to-Consumer strategies. Amidst a significant correction in public markets, investor focus has shifted toward profitability, yet private valuations remain robust for early-stage companies as the European Chips Act mobilizes €40 billion to address semiconductor bottlenecks. With geopolitical tensions reshaping supply chain priorities and niche sectors like online education showing low penetration, the region continues to leverage its global leadership in hardware and B2B verticals to capture substantial future growth.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
How the Russia-Ukraine Crisis is Reshaping the Global Energy Landscape
Samantha Dart, Alberto Gandolfi, Michele Della Vigna, Alison Nathan
Amidst acute supply vulnerabilities where Russia provides 40% of Europe's natural gas and oil, European markets face soaring prices that are forcing industrial curtailment while Western divestment sustains price volatility. In response, the EU is accelerating the "Repower EU" strategy to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds this year and compress renewable project approvals, simultaneously delaying coal retirements and expanding LNG infrastructure to ensure energy security. These structural shifts, supported by a 60% forecasted rise in global energy investment, aim to rebalance ESG frameworks toward immediate affordability while transitioning to green hydrogen and renewables by 2030.
- Goldman Sachs16 min
How Policymakers are Navigating Stagflation Risk
Eric Rosengren, Philipp Hildebrand, Jan Hatzius, Alison Nathan
Economists Eric Rosengren and Philip Hildebrand warn that the U.S. and Euro Area face heightened stagflation risks driven by multi-decade inflation levels and supply shocks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the Federal Reserve is criticized for being behind the curve in raising rates, strategies involving balance sheet recalibration are debated to avoid a policy-induced recession predicted by Goldman Sachs analysts. Policymakers remain compelled to continue tightening to anchor inflation expectations, even as forecasts suggest a shallow normalization cycle and a growth slowdown to approximately 2%.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
The Next Tech Battleground: Online Gaming & the Metaverse
Jung Min, Alison Nathan, Zhang Min
The global gaming industry has matured into a $200 billion sector driven by live operations and recurring revenue, prompting a wave of strategic mergers and acquisitions to diversify portfolios and secure market dominance. Major technology leaders like Microsoft and Tencent are now allocating significant capital to gaming as a foundational pathway for the metaverse and Web 3.0, viewing the sector as a critical incubator for future digital infrastructure. This ongoing platform shift, which mirrors the transition from desktop to mobile, is projected to create new monetization models and drive substantial global economic growth over the next decade.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
What the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Means for the Global Economy and Markets
Daan Struyven, Peter Oppenheimer, Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global economic conditions have tightened by 50 basis points, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise inflation forecasts upward to 5.4% in the Euro area and anticipate a reduction in global growth. Central banks are navigating a bimodal trade-off between rising energy-driven inflation and growth risks, with the Federal Reserve projecting 11 rate hikes in 2023 and the ECB adopting a data-dependent strategy while Germany increases defense spending. To mitigate these shocks, strategic asset allocations are shifting toward commodities, energy equities, and safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Canadian dollar, while European fiscal policy pivots toward energy security and refugee support.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
What the Fed’s Hawkish Pivot Means for Economic Growth and Markets
David Mericle, Brian Friedman, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs has revised its 2022 Federal Reserve interest rate hike forecast to seven increases driven by wage growth incompatible with inflation targets, projecting balance sheet reductions to begin in June. While financial conditions remain tighter with record credit outflows and equity exposure hitting yearly lows, the firm attributes greater recessionary risk to the fading of pandemic-era fiscal stimulus than to monetary policy. Consequently, the research recommends a long-equity, short-credit strategy and identifies emerging market currencies as attractive assets amid a global divergence where developing central banks have largely finished tightening.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
Investing in Climate Change 2.0
Mark Carney, Chris James, Alison Nathan, Evie Hambro, Caspar Lorenzen, Jeff Curry
Leading financial institutions and investors, including Mark Carney, Engine No. 1, and BlackRock, are deploying a strategy of active engagement to steer $130 trillion in assets toward a net-zero future, effectively challenging high-emitting industries like ExxonMobil through proxy campaigns and portfolio adjustments. This approach asserts that climate action aligns with fiduciary duty by mitigating long-term risks and capitalizing on market shifts, while experts like Goldman Sachs' Jeff Curry emphasize that private sector efforts alone are insufficient without government-mandated carbon pricing and standardized disclosure frameworks. Ultimately, achieving the required $4 trillion annual climate investment by 2050 depends on a hybrid model where voluntary decarbonization plans are reinforced by binding public policies to ensure efficient capital allocation and affordable energy transitions.
- Goldman Sachs33 min
What’s Ahead for Global Economies and Markets in 2022?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects global growth to reach 4.5% in 2022 as post-pandemic reopening boosts fade, yet maintains optimism driven by household savings and continued vaccine efficacy. The outlook features regional divergence with advanced economies outperforming emerging markets like China, which faces deceleration due to property sector weaknesses, while inflation forecasts are revised upward for the US and UK amid potential wage-driven pressures. Consequently, monetary policy is expected to shift from tapering to rate hikes starting mid-2022, creating a volatile market environment where rising real yields could test equity valuations and elevate bond yields across major economies.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Accelerating Transition
John Goldstein, Kara Mangone, Alison Nathan
At the November 10, 2021 discussion, Goldman Sachs executives John Goldstein and Cara Mangone outlined the firm's $750 billion strategic commitment by 2030 to bridge the critical policy gap between private sector action and public sector mandates. To address the $3 trillion to $5 trillion annual capital shortfall and data complexity hurdles, the bank established a Sustainable Finance Group that integrates client decarbonization diagnostics with operational tools for green bonds and renewable power hedging. The event concluded by emphasizing a transition from pilot programs to scalable solutions, including new partnerships like the Asian Development Bank grant and the development of the Open Source Climate initiative.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Outlook for Global Growth: Less Synchronized, More Complicated
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a November 2021 announcement for asset purchase tapering while Goldman Sachs lowered its 2021 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 6% amid rising virus cases and global supply chain disruptions. Despite revising core PCE inflation expectations upward to 3.75% for the current year, the central bank anticipates the spike will remain temporary and defer rate hikes until potentially mid-2023. This cautious stance aims to balance the risk of new viral variants and the expiration of unemployment benefits, which together are expected to drive approximately 1.5 million additional jobs by late 2021.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
How Are Investors Navigating China’s Regulatory Uncertainty?
Stephanie Hui, Basak Yavuz, Prakriti Sofat, Alison Nathan
Amidst rapid regulatory shifts in China's ed-tech, cybersecurity, and antitrust sectors, Goldman Sachs advocates a neutral to overweight stance on Chinese equities while targeting decarbonization and self-sufficiency themes. Private market investors are reorienting capital toward sustainable business models and ESG-aligned "S" factors, viewing recent valuation corrections as a strategic opportunity rather than a fundamental departure. Although volatility has pressured specific property and technology segments, the broader consensus points to a structural realignment favoring companies demonstrating societal benefit and long-term resilience.