Allison Nathan
Showing 46–52 of 52 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
High mortgage rates, limited inventory continue to challenge the US housing market
Roger Ashworth, Allison Nathan
Despite existing home sales collapsing to thirty-year lows due to severe affordability shocks and a borrower lock-in effect, institutional investors and persistent demographic demand are preventing a market correction. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts a 5% price appreciation in 2024 and declining mortgage rates by 2025, driven by tight inventory and a projected population boom among primary buying-age cohorts. While supply chain hurdles and macroeconomic risks like inflation threaten to delay recovery, historically low foreclosure rates and substantial homeowner equity provide a stable price floor.
- Goldman Sachs37 min
What’s ahead for retail: how retail CEOs are navigating a more complex environment
Tim Ingrassia, Vishaal Rana, Ted Decker, Dave Kimbell, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts and retail leaders including Home Depot's Ted Decker and Ulta Beauty's Dave Kimball characterize 2024 as a pivotal shift where micro-level corporate strategies outweigh macroeconomic trends in driving performance. Private equity firms are increasingly targeting defensive sectors like collision repair while navigating debt constraints, forcing a consolidation of single-banner models and a reevaluation of Direct-to-Consumer valuation models that have shed 97% of their 2021 peak value. As interest rates remain elevated and geopolitical risks introduce new logistics costs, the market is prioritizing sustainable profitability over revenue growth, with physical stores re-emerging as critical drivers of customer lifetime value compared to digital-only channels.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
2024: the year of elections
Richard Haass, Timothy Garton Ash, Allison Nathan
Richard Haass and Timothy Garten-Ash analyze 2024 as a pivotal global year marked by democratic backsliding and a surge of right-wing populism across Europe and the United States. They argue that the U.S. presidential election serves as the decisive geopolitical event, where the policy divergence between an alliance-first Biden and an isolationist Trump will fundamentally shape the security architecture of NATO and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These shifts carry profound implications for European integration, Taiwan's defense, and the United Kingdom's future relations with the EU, as Western uncertainty may embolden adversaries like Putin and undermine the credibility of international commitments.
- Goldman Sachs35 min
Uncharted territory: Navigating a ‘geopolitical recession’
Jared Cohen, Ian Bremmer, Allison Nathan
Former State Department official Jared Cohen and political analyst Ian Bremmer describe a global "geopolitical recession" where domestic political pressures in the US and China have eroded traditional governance, creating a credibility deficit that forces all sectors into the crossfire of great power rivalry. While the Middle East conflict has isolated Washington and empowered Iran, strategic stabilization has emerged in US-China relations driven by Beijing's economic fragility, leaving a leadership void that can only be partially filled by climate cooperation. The speakers advise businesses to abandon pure efficiency for "intellectual efficiency," targeting geopolitical swing states like India and the Gulf nations to navigate an era defined by fragmented trade blocs and supply chain weaponization.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
M&A in 2024: Navigating opportunities and challenges
Stephan Feldgoise, Mark Sorrell, Allison Nathan
Following a 2023 period defined by valuation misalignments and high interest rates, the M&A market is experiencing a surge in dialogue and specific sector activity driven by resilient natural resources, healthcare, and stable industrial performance. While private equity deal volume has contracted due to financing costs, corporate buyers have maintained robust activity and public-to-private transactions have reached record levels to address pressure on portfolio monetization. Looking ahead to 2024, experts anticipate a normalization of interest rates and reduced inflation will catalyze a rebound in technology deals and strategic spinoffs, with international activity expected to trail the US market by several months.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Unlocking the AI M&A Supercycle
Jung Min, Matt Lucas, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs' latest analysis characterizes the current generative AI boom as a transformative, economy-wide shift driven by chat interfaces and algorithmic leaps, while noting that widespread enterprise adoption remains in a nascent phase. Investment capital is currently concentrated on infrastructure components like semiconductors and data centers, leading to a shift in public market valuations toward tangible results rather than speculation. Although acquisition activity is temporarily constrained by strategic uncertainty, future M&A waves and significant economic productivity gains are projected to emerge once regulatory frameworks stabilize and enterprise spending matures over the coming decade.
- Goldman Sachs41 min
Speaker Series for Interns: Senior Economists from Global Investment Research
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Allison Nathan
Jan and co-speakers assess the post-2009 global economy as significantly improved from a Depression scenario yet still hampered by insufficient stimulus, premature fiscal tightening, and slow central bank responses. While US growth is forecast to accelerate to roughly 2.7% by mid-2014 driven by housing and demographics, supporting equity upside despite rich valuations, Europe and Japan face subdued growth and inflation challenges requiring more aggressive monetary easing. The analysts predict the Federal Reserve will hold rates near zero until early 2016 due to hidden labor market slack, whereas emerging markets are navigating a painful 12-to-18-month correction phase before resuming their long-term role as primary global growth engines.