Aram Verdiyan

How AI Is Rewriting the Power Law of Venture Capital

Jen Kha, David George, Aram Verdiyan

The summary details how an extreme power law in venture capital now demands that top-tier funds secure category-defining assets like SpaceX or OpenAI to generate returns, as traditional mid-stage investing has collapsed and late-stage exits increasingly favor early-stage franchise holders. Despite valuation distortions and structural misalignments between general partners and limited partners, capital is shifting aggressively toward AI-native growth and infrastructure bottlenecks like energy and data centers, which are viewed as the primary constraints on a projected $10 trillion market opportunity. This reallocation favors long-horizon investors who can tolerate early-stage loss rates up to 60% in exchange for the liquidity potential of future trillion-dollar companies emerging from robotics, autonomy, and deep healthcare innovation.