Brad Rogoff

Credit Trends and Private Credit Evolution | Global Conference 2025

Eric Platt, Greg Braylovskiy, Anne-Marie Fink, Steve Kuppenheimer, Brad Rogoff, Kevin Sherlock

Industry experts analyze the convergence of private credit and traditional banking, forecasting a modest U.S. recession with rising default rates reaching 5% this year amidst widening credit spreads and tightening underwriting standards. While giant private credit firms are displacing banks in the middle market, the sector is evolving through strategic joint ventures that shift risk off balance sheets and limit systemic exposure, despite concerns over valuation transparency and future refinancing challenges. The panel concludes that lenders are pivoting toward special situations and asset-backed strategies with shorter durations as direct lending spreads compress and regulatory bodies monitor potential asset-liability mismatches in the rapidly maturing private credit landscape.