Chris Oth

What will computer chips look like in 2045?

Tom Fox, Chris Oth, Kevin Fisher, Jack Cavalieros, Tyler Osborne, Pushkar Arande, Francesc Campoy, Mark Mandelmann, Shyam Gollakota, Seth Vargoeva

Driven by AI demand that exceeds current semiconductor manufacturing capacity by 40% to 50%, Intel and TSMC face critical supply constraints primarily caused by ASML's limited output of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography machines. While TSMC maintains a significant scale advantage, Intel is attempting to close the gap by 2028 through the adoption of High-NA EUV technology and a backside power architecture for its 14A process, despite past delays caused by premature scaling attempts. As the industry moves toward hybrid bonding and new materials to address interconnect bottlenecks, major players are increasingly considering vertical integration or partnerships like Intel's potential collaboration with Elon Musk on a "TeraFab" to secure necessary production volume.