Damian Cuervalin

The Impact of Rising Natural Gas Prices

Damien Courvalin, Allison Nathan, Damian Cuervalin

Record-high natural gas prices in Europe have emerged from a convergence of surging global demand, particularly from China, and severe supply disruptions driven by underinvestment in fossil fuel infrastructure and regulatory issues surrounding Russian exports. This energy tightness, compounded by record-low inventory levels ahead of the winter peak, risks triggering industrial production cuts, accelerating inflation, and reducing economic growth across European economies. Goldman Sachs estimates that sustained price levels could force substitution toward oil, further elevating commodity costs while highlighting the structural dangers of rapid energy transitions without adequate backup capacity.