Dave Kellogg

Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110

Dave Kellogg, Harry Stebbings

Dave Kellogg, drawing from his experience scaling Business Objects to a billion-dollar valuation, outlines the current "musical chairs" SaaS landscape where aggressive cost efficiency and strict CAC ratios dictate survival. He advises founders to abandon broad horizontal expansion in favor of vertical specialization and to restructure customer success roles explicitly around securing renewals amid a market where Net Retention rates have fallen to 105–108%. Furthermore, Kellogg warns that over-capitalization and investor-driven subscription pricing models are driving unsustainable behaviors, urging a shift toward dispassionate analytics and realistic sales forecasting to navigate the impending industry consolidation.