Dominic Wilson
Showing 16–22 of 22 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
What's behind the US equity underperformance?
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Josh Schifrin and Dominic Wilson have revised their U.S. year-on-year growth forecast down to 1.7% due to policy uncertainty and weak first-quarter data, anticipating a delay in Federal Reserve rate cuts until June. While the team expects the yield curve to steepen and favors front-end fixed income positions to hedge against economic pain, they caution that "U.S. exceptionalism" is fading as European markets like Germany gain traction through significant fiscal expansion. Ultimately, the strategists predict a volatile near-term environment where short-term labor data may deteriorate further before a recovery emerges, challenging the prevailing thesis that the administration will maintain a growth floor.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Macro questions and market strength
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzias and Dominic Wilson project that 2025 U.S. real GDP will grow by approximately 2.5% despite an effective tariff increase of 4–7 percentage points, a scenario where tailwinds continue to outweigh policy headwinds. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates later in the year due to sticky but manageable inflation, markets remain resilient near record highs driven by strong consumer income growth and a pricing dynamic that favors offshore equities. The analysts warn that aggressive tariff implementation poses a significant tail risk for growth and bond yields, yet they maintain that the current low recession probability supports a gradual upward drift in risk assets.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
AI Shake-Up and US Exceptionalism
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Dominic Wilson and Josh Schifrin analyze the "DeepSeek" AI disruption as a pivotal shift challenging U.S. dominance while reaffirming persistent corporate spending driven by competitive incentives. The speakers outline a Federal Reserve likely to hold rates steady pending economic clarity, forecasting potential cuts only if labor weakens or inflation trends clearly toward 2%. Despite market volatility, the panel maintains a bullish conviction in global equities and a steeper yield curve, cautioning investors to account for underpriced tariff risks and the evolving complexity of the AI investment landscape.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
2025 outlook: Will tailwinds trump tariffs?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Yann, Dom, Tom, David, Alec, Dami, Yuan
Forecasts project U.S. real GDP growth at 2.5% for 2025, driven by real wage gains and moderate financial conditions, while maintaining a 15% recession probability. The outlook hinges on tariff scenarios, where base case assumptions assume limited trade barriers, though a full across-the-board tariff risk could reduce growth by one percentage point and raise inflation toward 3%. Consequently, investors are advised to hedge equity concentration risks with non-U.S. bonds and options while anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts that target a federal funds range of 3.25% to 3.5% by late 2025.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
Post-election market outlook
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Strategists Dominic Wilson and Josh Schifrin analyze the post-election market surge, attributing the rally in US equities, the dollar, and bond yields to a convergence of upgraded growth prospects and pro-growth policy expectations. While the Federal Reserve is forecasted to implement a December rate cut and adopt a cautious "destination mode," the pair highlights persistent tail risks including tariff volatility, valuation concerns, and a heavy concentration of capital in US assets. Their outlook recommends a long-equity and long-dollar portfolio position to navigate an expected year-end transition into a choppier, policy-sensitive trading environment.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Why the global economy and markets can continue to outperform in 2024
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs reports that the global economy outperformed 2023 forecasts, with the U.S. avoiding recession through post-pandemic normalization while equity markets mispriced resilience against aggressive rate hikes. Looking ahead to 2024, the firm projects modest global growth and declining inflation, predicting that risky assets like equities and commodities will outperform cash as central banks approach a peak in policy rates before gradual cuts begin in the second half of the year. Despite elevated long-term interest rates and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions, the investment strategy emphasizes a shift toward diversified portfolios to capitalize on AI-driven earnings and supply-side commodity pressures.
- Goldman Sachs41 min
Speaker Series for Interns: Senior Economists from Global Investment Research
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Allison Nathan
Jan and co-speakers assess the post-2009 global economy as significantly improved from a Depression scenario yet still hampered by insufficient stimulus, premature fiscal tightening, and slow central bank responses. While US growth is forecast to accelerate to roughly 2.7% by mid-2014 driven by housing and demographics, supporting equity upside despite rich valuations, Europe and Japan face subdued growth and inflation challenges requiring more aggressive monetary easing. The analysts predict the Federal Reserve will hold rates near zero until early 2016 due to hidden labor market slack, whereas emerging markets are navigating a painful 12-to-18-month correction phase before resuming their long-term role as primary global growth engines.