Emile Hokayem

Middle East risks

Edward P. Djerejian, Emile Hokayem, Alison Nathan

Former U.S. Ambassador Edward Jerijian and IIS Senior Fellow Emile Hokeyem analyze how the October 7th attacks successfully recentered the Palestinian cause while triggering a broader regional conflict involving Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Experts warn that although Hamas has achieved its goal of ending the marginalization of Palestine, Israel remains committed to its military destruction while facing significant risks of miscalculation due to Hezbollah's involvement and disruptions to global oil flows. The prevailing consensus identifies a two-state solution as the only viable long-term resolution, yet current Israeli political constraints and the absence of credible Palestinian leadership render such a framework impossible in the immediate future.