Fabrice Grinda
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What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today?
Rory O'Driscoll, Jason Lemkin, Fabrice Grinda, Harry Stebbings
Venture capital markets are currently navigating a dual reality defined by an AI-fueled "gold rush" and a constrained liquidity environment where exit windows remain closed. Investors are diverging between aggressive "megatrend" bets on artificial intelligence and defense technology versus deep-value plays in digitized B2B sectors, while grappling with rapidly evolving risks such as model obsolescence and geopolitical instability. This high-velocity landscape is forcing strategic shifts toward earlier exits, a preference for "deranged" founders capable of exponential scaling, and a structural reevaluation of how private company lifecycles align with technological obsolescence.
Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886
FJ Labs founder Fabrice Grinda details the firm's evolution from a sole-operator angel fund to a structured organization managing 31 professionals, while outlining a revised due diligence process that screens approximately 200 weekly deals against core criteria of team quality and market economics. Grinda analyzes the current macroeconomic landscape as a 60% probability of "Great Stagnation" driven by high inflation and interest rates, yet maintains an optimistic view that technology will drive long-term productivity growth despite a heightened 20% risk of a catastrophic sovereign debt crisis. To navigate this environment, the firm has reduced its average check size to capture value in early-stage markets while advising founders to prioritize unit economics and cash efficiency over rapid expansion.