Francesco Garzarelli

Episode 87: The Rate Stuff: What Markets Are Saying About the Macro Outlook

Francesco Garzarelli, Jake Seward

Goldman Sachs Research analysts attribute current equity and bond volatility to a market repricing of U.S. growth following fiscal stimulus, while forecasting four Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2018 that align with a terminal rate near 3%. The firm contends that a synchronized global bond bear market is unlikely until late 2018 or 2019, noting that divergent central bank cycles currently limit systemic risk despite rising term premiums in Europe and Japan. To capitalize on expected market complacency regarding inflation, the strategy advocates maintaining exposure to risky assets while exploiting volatility premiums through steeper yield curves.