Ilfryn Carstairs
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- Milken Institute1h 2m
Credit Is a Cycle: Global Market Outlook
Michael Milken, Ilfryn Carstairs, Josh Friedman, Sir Michael Hintze, David Miller, Jim Zelter
A panel of leading alternative asset managers including CQS, Canyon, and Apollo analyzed a late-cycle credit market characterized by covenant-light public securities, regulatory constraints on bank inventory, and significant dislocations in commercial real estate. Focusing on structural opportunities, these firms detailed strategies to pivot from passive trading to active origination, leveraging high-volume distressed assets in India, demographic-driven yield hunger from Japan, and short positions against deteriorating CMBS tranches. With substantial private equity dry powder and institutional demand for yield, the consensus indicates a strategic shift toward building proprietary platforms and utilizing long/short strategies to capture alpha as the sector expands toward $3 trillion in combined purchasing power over the next five years.
- Milken Institute59 min
Credit Market Outlook
Michael Milken, Ilfryn Carstairs, Sir Michael Hintze, David Miller, Joseph Naggar, Jim Zelter
Leading asset managers including Apollo, Golden Tree, and CQS convened to analyze the $102 billion permanent capital opportunities emerging from a 48% growth surge in leverage finance and over $1.1 trillion in private equity dry powder. The panel detailed how rising interest rates, evolving regulatory frameworks in Europe and India, and a shift toward covenant-light structures are creating distinct arbitrage strategies in distressed assets and direct origination. By leveraging granular, country-specific platforms and complex legal analysis, these firms aim to deliver 7–12% risk-adjusted returns while navigating systemic risks posed by inflation and technological disruption.
- Milken Institute1h 0m
Credit Market Outlook
Michael Milken, Ilfryn Carstairs, Pierre de Chillaz, Juan Delgado-Moreira, Lawrence Golub, Robert Petty, Mike Milken
This panel analysis details how global bank retrenchment has created a six-trillion-dollar capital gap filled by non-bank lenders across the U.S., Europe, and Asia, particularly benefiting small and medium enterprises in regions with improved restructuring laws. While U.S. private credit focuses on senior secured floating rate debt to maintain 11–12% returns amid eroding covenants, Asian and European markets present opportunities for value creation through distressed scenarios and significant currency advantages. Industry leaders like Golub Capital and Hamilton Lane highlight a strategic rotation away from junior debt risks toward operational, direct lending structures to capitalize on these structural shifts while managing leverage and currency volatility.