Sam Grobart
Showing 1–2 of 2 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs9 min
Regional banks back in focus on real estate concerns
Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs distinguishes current regional banking stress from the 2023 crisis by characterizing it as idiosyncratic and concentrated within smaller institutions rather than systemic, citing improved liquidity and accessible funding facilities. While commercial office loans and specific multifamily segments face multi-year headwinds, the industry holds adequate reserves and anticipates higher but manageable credit losses for 2024. Key risk exposure remains skewed toward banks under $150 billion in assets, though broader residential real estate dynamics and stabilizing net interest income support a positive outlook for sector growth.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
Normalizing inflation: are ‘hard yards’ ahead?
Ashok Varadhan, Sam Grobart, Ashok Singhala
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzihas lowered the U.S. recession probability to 15% as disinflation approaches 2%, yet the firm warns that the final steps to this target may require restrictive policy rather than natural market cooling. While investment-grade corporate debt remains resilient due to pandemic-era fixed-rate lock-ins, rising costs are projected to isolate distress within lower-quality credit segments. The economic outlook currently hinges on whether the Federal Reserve can achieve its 2% inflation goal via "gravity" without triggering the severe market turbulence associated with draconian intervention.