Centerra Gold Investor Webinar - November 2026 - CENTERRA GOLD INC

Financial Performance:

• Sentara reports strong free cash flow generation from existing assets, with both Mount Milligan (BC) and Aksut (Turkey) generating over $200 million each year; Aksut's production guidance was increased while Mount Milligan's gold guidance was reduced due to copper byproduct credits.
• The company maintains a pristine balance sheet with approximately $400 million in cash, a $600 million untouched credit facility, and zero debt, providing $1 billion in total liquidity.
• Current financial modeling for the Thompson Creek restart is based on a $20/lb molybdenum price; however, current spot prices (<del>$34.50) and 2026 YTD averages (</del>$30) offer significant margin upside compared to the restart study assumptions.
• The Thompson Creek restart is a $425–$450 million capital project, well underway with significant infrastructure already built.

Guidance and Future Outlook:

• First production at the Thompson Creek molybdenum mine is targeted for mid-2027, with a subsequent ramp-up year in 2028.
• Sentara plans to self-fund its growth strategy, utilizing cash flows from gold and copper operations to develop new assets without external financing.
• Long-term goals include bringing the Goldfield project online by late 2028 and potentially developing the Compass (Comess) project in the early 2030s, which has a PEA outlining a 15-year mine life.
• Management expects molybdenum demand to grow at a 3% CAGR through 2030, driven by high-value steel, aerospace, and energy sectors.

Business Segments and Product Lines:

• Molybdenum Business: A vertically integrated U.S. operation consisting of the primary Thompson Creek mine in Idaho (high-purity concentrate) and the Langlois downstream converter in Pennsylvania (technical oxide, ferro-molybdenum, and chemical grade products).
• Operational Structure: The Langlois facility operates at 40 million pounds annual capacity; currently running at ~33% capacity using third-party concentrates, with plans to reach ~66% capacity once Thompson Creek captive feed is integrated.
• Byproducts: The Langlois facility produces Rhenium (a critical aerospace mineral) and sulfuric acid as byproducts of the roasting process.
• Other Assets: Mount Milligan (gold/copper, life to 2045) and Aksut (gold, life to 2029 with extension study due Feb 2027) serve as foundational cash flow generators; Goldfield (gold) is under construction in Nevada.

Market and Competitive Landscape:

• The molybdenum market is tight, with supply constrained by production cuts at copper mines (particularly in Chile) and a lack of additional supply response from China.
• Thompson Creek is one of only three primary molybdenum mines globally outside of China, positioned to fill a supply deficit with an output of ~13 million pounds (approx. 2% of global demand).
• Molybdenum prices have shown structural strength rather than cyclical volatility, driven by increased intensity of use in high-performance steels (up to 7% moly content) and demand in oil & gas, aerospace, defense, and nuclear/hydrogen energy.
• Langlois is the only U.S. producer of ferro-molybdenum, offering a strategic advantage in onshoring critical supply chains for U.S. steel producers.

Risks and Challenges:

• Supply Volatility: While the market is currently tight, long-term price sustainability depends on Chinese supply response, which remains uncertain.
• Labor Market: A competitive environment for skilled mining labor in Idaho; Sentara is mitigating this by hiring contractors and leveraging the strategic value proposition of U.S. production.
• Working Capital: Higher molybdenum prices increase working capital requirements at the Langlois facility due to the cost of acquiring concentrates.
• Project Execution: The restart is capital-intensive, requiring continued adherence to the $425–$450 million capex cap without safety shortcuts.

Management Commentary and Tone:

• Management tone is highly confident and constructive, emphasizing that the "timing is perfect" for Thompson Creek given current supply tightness and high prices.
• Executives view the molybdenum business as a "value engine" that significantly de-risks the portfolio and diversifies revenue streams beyond gold and copper.
• Confidence is high regarding the ability to achieve mid-2027 production, citing 75% completion of infrastructure refurbishment and a fully staffed management team.
• The strategy emphasizes vertical integration to dampen market volatility, utilizing a processing spread model at Langlois rather than pure commodity speculation.

Analyst Questions and Answers:

• Commercial Model: Answered that Langlois operates on a premium spread (QP matching) model rather than pure hedging, managing quality/price risk through physical matching and contract optionality.
• Byproduct Risk: Clarified that increased copper production does not guarantee proportional molybdenum supply due to recovery complexities and the lack of incentive to reconfigure mills to capture moly from tailings.
• Pricing Mechanisms: Confirmed no liquid futures market for molybdenum; prices are index-based but driven by tight spot markets and regional dislocations.
• Incentive Price: Suggested that a sustained price above $25/lb over a mine life is required to incentivize new primary greenfield projects in the West, whereas China is the likely source of future incremental supply.
• Labor: Confirmed 250 employees on site, with aggressive hiring plans for the mill and the use of contractors to mitigate workforce shortages.
• Price Sensitivity: Highlighted that the Thompson Creek mine margins are highly sensitive to moly prices (structural upside from $20 base case), while Langlois margins are more stable processing spreads.

Other Key Points:

• Sentara holds an additional primary molybdenum asset, Indaco, in the U.S. (a past-producing mine with a world-class mill), which is on hold but could serve as a future follow-on production source.
• The company plans to host a more detailed "MOLI teach-in" in Spring 2027 to discuss financial and operating fundamentals ahead of first production.
• Molybdenum is highlighted as a strategic mineral critical for defense, AI (advanced computing), and the energy transition (nuclear, hydrogen, LNG).
• The restart of Thompson Creek is a brownfield project, significantly de-risked by pre-existing infrastructure compared to greenfield developments.