Centerra Gold Investor Webinar - November 2026 - CENTERRA GOLD INC

Explicit Guidance:

• FY2026 Revenue/Margins: Management expects a constructive price environment with molybdenum prices averaging near $30/lb in 2026 and spot prices at $34.50/lb, creating significant margin opportunities above the $20/lb study assumption.
• Capex: Restart of Thompson Creek mine budgeted at $425–$450 million; project is "well on track" to deliver within this range. Goldfield project capital cost estimated at $250 million.
• Cash Flow & Balance Sheet: Current liquidity standing of ~$1 billion ($400M cash + $600M untouched credit facility) with no debt. Plans to utilize strong free cash flow from Mount Milligan and Aksut (>$200M FCF each YTD) to self-fund development and reduce share count.
• Production Targets:
  • Aksut (Turkey): FY2026 gold production guidance increased to 120,000–135,000 ounces.
  • Mount Milligan (BC): FY2026 gold production guidance 140,000–155,000 ounces; copper production increased (reducing ASIC guidance due to copper credits).
  • Thompson Creek (ID): First production slated for mid-2027.
  • Goldfield (NV): Slated to come online in late 2028.
  • Compass (BC): PFS expected in mid-2027; PEA outlines 15-year starting mine life (approx. 170k oz gold/60M lbs copper annually); development expected in early 2030s.
  • Langloft (PA): Capacity 40 million pounds; operating at ~33% capacity (third-party feed), with potential to reach ~66% utilizing captive feed from Thompson Creek by 2028.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Molybdenum (MOLI): Thompson Creek is a primary moly mine (high purity concentrate) located in Idaho, expected to start production mid-2027. Output estimated at 13 million pounds (~2% of global market). Vertical integration with Langloft (Pittsburgh) enables production of technical-grade oxide, ferro-molybdenum, and specialty chemicals.
• Langloft Strategy: Post-Thompson Creek integration, facility will utilize 33% captive feed (Thompson Creek) and 33% third-party concentrate, flexing to 100% capacity if market conditions allow. Will capture processing margins (spread model) and produce byproducts Rhenium and Sulfuric Acid.
• Aksut Extension: Life-of-mine extension study to be announced in February 2027; current mine life extends to 2029.
• Indaco: Identified as a potential future follow-on primary moly production source; currently on care and maintenance ("fair means").

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Demand Trends: Global moly market (~670M lbs in 2025) projected to grow at a 3% CAGR through 2030. Strongest growth in energy (nuclear, hydrogen, grids), aerospace/defense (jet engines), and oil & gas (pipelines, wellheads). Demand for high-purity steel is driving higher intensity of use.
• Supply Dynamics: Tight concentrate market due to underperformance in Chile (byproduct mines) and limited Chinese supply response. Global supply deficit anticipated through the end of the decade.
• Competitive Positioning: Thompson Creek is one of only three primary molybdenum mines outside China; de-risked by existing infrastructure (brownfield restart). Langloft is the sole U.S. producer of ferro-molybdenum, offering critical supply security.
• Pricing Outlook: Prices expected to remain "stickier" and solid rather than cyclical, driven by structural deficit and high-value steel demand. Incentive price for new Western primary projects estimated at sustained levels above $25/lb (likely higher for greenfield).

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Geopolitics/Security: Strategic advantage of U.S.-based production ("domestic producer of strategic minerals") aligns with re-shoring trends in steel, defense, and energy sectors.
• Regulatory/Environmental: No specific tax rate or tariff guidance provided; focus is on supply security.
• Future Outlook: Management anticipates continued market strength through 2030, with supply-side delivery becoming the primary constraint after the decade.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Thompson Creek Restart: On track for mid-2027 commissioning; 75% complete as of October (65% at end of September). Pit stripping ongoing for 2+ years; mill refurbishment and tailings facility work progressing.
• Goldfield Development: Construction underway; target first production late 2028.
• Comas (Comess) Feasibility: PEA released (Jan 2024); PFS planned for mid-2027. Viewed as a long-life asset for early 2030s development.
• Capital Allocation: Self-funding strategy using FCF from operating assets to build portfolio without external debt.
• Educational Outreach: A detailed "MOLI teach-in" webinar planned for Spring 2027 following the release of formal guidance and ahead of Thompson Creek first production.
• Labor Hiring: Ramp-up of 250 personnel on-site; utilizing contractors to mitigate labor shortages in Idaho; retention focus due to competitive "mining renaissance" market.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Labor Market: Competitive hiring environment in Idaho for skilled mining personnel; potential retention challenges.
• Working Capital: Higher moly prices may necessitate increased working capital investment at Langloft to purchase concentrate inventory.
• Operational Execution: Risk of delays in mill/tailings refurbishment or commissioning at Thompson Creek.
• Market Volatility: Molybdenum lacks liquid futures hedging; price exposure relies on physical QP (Quality/Price) matching in an opaque spot market.
• Supply Response Uncertainty: While demand is strong, future supply could increase if Chinese projects (e.g., Julong, Shapingu) accelerate or if byproduct recovery from copper mines increases significantly (requires new investments).

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence: Highly constructive and confident. Management views the timing of Thompson Creek's 2027 debut as "perfect" amidst a supply crunch.
• Differentiation: Emphasizes the "polymetallic" nature of Sentara (Gold, Copper, Molybdenum) as a key differentiator for diversified cash flow.
• Discipline: While open to accelerating production if safety permits, management stresses "discipline" and avoiding shortcuts.
• Margin Outlook: Expects "significant margin opportunity" given current prices exceed the $20/lb feasibility study baseline.

Miscellaneous:

• Product Byproducts: Rhenium (critical mineral, 75% U.S. import reliance) and Sulfuric Acid are co-produced at Langloft, adding value streams.
• Market Structure: Molybdenum is not traded on futures exchanges; pricing is index-based but driven by physical spot dislocations.
• Investor Engagement: Plan for detailed follow-up on financial and operating fundamentals in Spring 2027.