Q3-2026: Deutsche Telekom Live-Webcast für Privatanlegende - DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG

Explicit Guidance:

• 2026 Financial Targets: Expecting result per share (EPS) of €2.20 in 2026, representing a 10% increase over 2025; dividend proposed at €1.10 per share to be paid in 2027 (subject to approval).
• Capital Return 2026: Proposed total shareholder return of approximately €7 billion for 2026, comprising the €1.10 dividend and a share buyback of up to €2 billion.
• Dividend Policy: Commitment to maintain an annual dividend policy of 40–60% (currently targeting ~50%) of the adjusted earnings per share, provided results develop positively.
• 2026 EBITDA Guidance: Projecting purified EBITDA for 2026 based on T-Mobile USA approval; non-US business expected to exceed €15.4 billion due to favorable exchange rates.
• Long-term Growth: Management expects further two-digit profit growth beyond 2026, consistent with analyst consensus, though no specific EPS guidance is provided for years after 2027.
• Ex-US AI Revenue: Expects approximately €250 million in turnover from AI-related sales within the ex-US business in 2026.
• Share Count/Buyback: Buyback program is flexible; expects to spend up to €5 billion, likely around €3.5 billion, depending on share price volatility (targeting purchase at low prices).

Business-Segment Outlook:

• T-Mobile USA:
  • Customer Growth: Expects to add approximately 1 million postpaid accounts for the full year 2026 following a record 2025; postpaid additions for 2026 expected to be slightly fewer than 2025 but remain "decent."
  • M&A Integration: Synergies from the US Cellular acquisition (€1.2 billion target) are currently being realized; implementation costs of €2.6 billion over two years are impacting current results and free cash flow.
  • Joint Ventures: Glass-fiber joint ventures in the USA are active but currently revenue-neutral/low-impact; expected to drive future profitability as the expansion phase matures and connections are sold.
• Germany:
  • Fiber Expansion: Record quarterly fiber access of 190,000 new connections in Q3 2026; target to add ~4 million new connections in Germany/Europe over the last 12 months; aiming to reach 26.4 million accessible households.
  • Strategic Goal: Long-term objective to provide 2/3 to 3/4 of Germany's 45 million housing units with fiber (targeting 25 million by 2030); intends to increase quarterly new fiber connections steadily.
  • Customer Metrics: Returned to broadband customer growth in Germany (+11,000 in Q3); mobile contract customer growth remains strong (+282,000 in Q3); TV business growing strongly in Germany (excluding non-connected).
  • EBITDA: Organic EBITDA growth in Germany expected to reach 2.5% for the full year 2026, driven by service sales growth.
• Europe (Ex-US):
  • Growth Trend: Ex-US business continues 4% organic growth; Poland highlighted as a strong performer for 2026, following Hungary's performance in 2025; Greece and Czech Republic remain stable; Austria faces near-term challenges.
  • Fiber Penetration: 26.4 million accessible households across Germany and Europe; best mobile network coverage in Europe according to UKLA.
• T-Systems: No longer considered a "worry child"; 5% organic growth seen over the first nine months; order entry expected to be higher in 2026 than 2025.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Competitive Landscape (USA): T-Mobile USA faces increased market aggression following Verizon's change in ownership; expects heightened competition but remains confident in defending market position.
• Satellite Competition: Views Elon Musk's (SpaceX) potential entry into terrestrial mobile networks as a "relevant development" but unlikely to be immediately competitive due to high capital requirements and time; notes US market fragmentation favors satellite for rural coverage, whereas European coverage (Germany 100% land, 90% 5G) renders satellite value-add minimal for language communication.
• Germany Market: Continues to operate in a highly competitive fixed/mobile market; celebrates 10 consecutive years (40 quarters) of organic EBITDA growth despite external shocks (pandemic, war).
• Pricing Strategy: Maintaining strategy of driving unlimited tariffs in Germany; DSL continues to be offered in areas lacking fiber but actively migrating existing DSL customers to fiber at comparable prices/higher speeds.
• Emerging Tech (Smart Glasses): Anticipates smart glasses as a popular product class; expects initial connectivity via Bluetooth/Wi-Fi, but forecasts eventual emergence of independent mobile SIM-based connections, creating new revenue streams.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Interest Rates & Debt: Net financial liabilities have risen due to exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate impacts, but debt ratio remains healthy at approx. 2.6x purified EBITDA (limit: 2.75x). Refinancing requirements are balanced; expects manageable impact from interest rate developments given organic EBITDA growth (+7.6% YTD).
• Currency: Expectation that favorable exchange rates will contribute to exceeding 2026 EBITDA targets in ex-US business.
• Regulation/Social: No specific tariff structure changes expected; prepaid volume restrictions remain temporary based on customer needs.
• Sustainability: Energy consumption continues to decline despite higher data volumes; AI and cybersecurity services expanding.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Capital Allocation: Prioritizing defense of network leadership in USA and indefinite fiber expansion in Germany; balancing shareholder returns with necessary capital for spectrum auctions and infrastructure.
• Spectrum Auctions: Anticipates significant spectrum auctions in the USA next year (2027); planning to participate, requiring preserved financial strength.
• AI Integration: Expanding AI capabilities (sovereign AI, cybersecurity); utilizing AI to optimize customer experience and control subcontractor quality rather than blunt staff rationalization; continuing to build employee base in Germany.
• Corporate Governance: Regulated succession planning for CEO Tim Höttges (contract ends 2028); successor expected to be announced one year prior to departure.
• M&A Integration: Finalizing integration of US Cellular and glass-fiber joint ventures; monitoring small EdTech acquisitions.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Competition: Aggressive market shifts by US competitors (Verizon) and potential entry by SpaceX into terrestrial mobile networks introduce uncertainty.
• Volatility: Deutsche Telekom stock price volatility driven by external news (SpaceX, US market slowdown) and competitive dynamics; T-Mobile USA stock performance can burden German Telekom stock.
• Macro Factors: Exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate increases impacting net debt and EBITDA comparisons.
• Implementation: M&A synergies (US Cellular) and joint venture ramp-ups may cause near-term earnings drag due to implementation costs and integration timelines.
• Policy Uncertainty: Dividend payout relies on actual result development; potential for imbalances in future years requiring flexibility in stock return programs.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence Level: Highly confident in achieving 2026 goals and 2027 targets (Capital Market Day 2024).
• Strategic Clarity: Emphasizes "stepping on the field" rather than reacting to stock price volatility; confident in network leadership and execution in competitive markets.
• Consistency: Maintains steady dividend policy and capital return strategy while remaining flexible on buyback volumes based on market conditions.
• Optimism: Views AI as a growth driver rather than a cost-cutting threat; sees long-term fiber expansion as profitable despite short-term investments.

Miscellaneous:

• Stock Return Flexibility: Unlike the fixed dividend, the buyback program allows flexibility to spend €3.5–€5 billion depending on share price, aiming to buy back shares at low valuations.
• AI Revenue Context: Expects €250M AI turnover in ex-US; notes this is a small fraction of >€100B global turnover, mitigating supplier dependency (Nvidia) concerns.
• Network Coverage: Holds best mobile network coverage in Europe (UKLA data); fiber expansion aims to cover 2/3 to 3/4 of all German housing units long-term.