Q3 2026 Financial and Operational Results Webcast - FORTUNA MINING CORP
Financial Performance:
- Generated $90.8 million in free cash flow from ongoing operations for the quarter; year-to-date (YTD) free cash flow reached $350 million on $954 million in sales.
- Reported Adjusted EBITDA of $165 million and Adjusted Net Income of $51 million ($0.17/share), down from Q2 2026 due to lower volumes, realized metal price declines ($4,281/oz vs $4,447/oz), higher costs, and non-cash share-based compensation ($10.9M).
- All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) increased to $2,286 per gold equivalent ounce (GEO) from $2,157 in Q2, driven by external factors adding $220/oz, including $116/oz from share-based compensation, $42/oz from higher consumables (diesel/explosives), and $45/oz from Argentine macroeconomic factors.
- Cash costs rose to $1,244 per GEO; YTD net cash from operating activities before working capital changes was $126.7 million ($0.43/share).
- Net cash position decreased to $260 million (down $160 million from the prior quarter), primarily due to the $206 million Bambadji acquisition.
- Retained strong liquidity of ~$600 million ($443 million cash) to fund growth; year-to-date share repurchases totaled $106 million for 10.8 million shares.
Guidance and Future Outlook:
- Targeting approximately 60% growth in annual gold production to ~500,000 ounces annually by mid-2028.
- Full-year 2026 production guidance remains 281,000–305,000 ounces; AISC expected to finish 8–10% above the top end of guidance ($1,975/oz) due to persistent external cost pressures, though stripping out these factors would align with guidance.
- Q4 2026 AISC anticipated to be ~5% above guidance top end as Seguela resolves operational issues and Lindero maintains performance.
- Projected to invest ~$750 million in growth and exploration over the next two years, fully funded by liquidity and operating cash flow without new equity issuance or excessive leverage.
- Share buybacks paused through 2027 to prioritize capital deployment; resumption will be opportunistic based on project funding needs and balance sheet strength.
Business Segments and Product Lines:
- West Africa (Seguela): Produced 33,744 gold ounces; temporary stoppage in July caused by artisanal miner blockade resolved, with volumes back to plan in September. Seguela plant expansion (30% capacity increase) approved with $109M final investment decision; completion targeted for Q3 2028. Underground project permitting on track for 2027 start.
- Senegal (Ambasud): Received government notice of admissibility for exploitation permit; expected to secure permit in Q4 2026. Construction scheduled to commence late November 2026; first gold targeted for mid-2028. $250M in EPCM and bulk packages awarded; $206M acquisition of Bambadji concession closed, with exploration drilling initiated on Cadi West, Wadi, and Latifa prospects.
- Latin America (Lindero): Produced 26,000 gold ounces (+25% QoQ), on track for 2026 guidance of 92,000–102,000 ounces. Improved plant reliability and crushing rates offset higher diesel costs; cash costs $1,449/oz.
- Latin America (Cayoma): Gold equivalent production reached 9,900 ounces; silver output up 7% to 247,400 ounces. Exceeding annual guidance of 29,000–33,000 GEO ounces; AISC decreased to $43.19/oz GEO. Tailings Number Three expansion 71% complete, targeting year-end finish.
Market and Competitive Landscape:
- Facing inflationary pressures on consumables, particularly diesel (up ~60% vs. guidance at Lindero) and explosives (up ~30%); government price controls at Seguela have mitigated fuel cost impacts there.
- Macroeconomic challenges in Argentina, including currency appreciation and withholding taxes, continue to impact costs and effective tax rates (47%).
- No major changes in market share; focus remains on executing low-cost, technically straightforward projects within existing mineral inventories.
Risks and Challenges:
- Operational disruption risk: Seguela experienced a site-wide stoppage due to a government anti-illegal mining operation triggering artisanal miner protests and vandalism.
- Cost volatility: Persistent inflation in diesel and explosives, plus Argentine macroeconomic factors, are pushing AISC above guidance levels.
- Permitting risk: Ambisud project relies on receiving the exploitation permit in Q4 2026 and finalizing Mining Convention negotiations.
- Safety: Recorded one lost-time injury (Seguela); YTD TRIFR of 1.23 (below target of 1.37); Cayoma and Lindero achieved 1,950 and 1,080 LTI-free days respectively.
Management Commentary and Tone:
- Tone is confident regarding long-term growth trajectory and financial capacity to execute the $750M investment plan, despite acknowledging near-term operational hiccups and cost headwinds.
- Management emphasized operational discipline, with corrective actions at Seguela already yielding improved execution.
- Prioritized capital allocation towards growth projects and balance sheet preservation over immediate shareholder returns via buybacks during the high-capex phase.
Analyst Questions and Answers:
- Bambadji Exploration: Management confirmed 6 drill rigs mobilized; Cadi West resource estimate expected by year-end, followed by Wadi and Latifa targets. Drilling paused at Sandberg (Seguela) for now due to depth; plans to transition to underground drilling in 2027.
- Seguela Blockade Details: Triggered by a national police task force operation in the nearby village of Cueguo involving a fatal shooting, which sparked protests. Operations resumed within 6 days of stoppage; management is engaging with authorities to manage community relations.
- Bambadji Integration: Authorities acknowledge Bambadji ore will be processed at the Ambasud plant; discussions ongoing to integrate permitting and Mining Convention for the combined asset base.
- Share Buybacks: No specific financial thresholds set for resuming buybacks; priority is funding the $750M growth program and maintaining liquidity, with plans to remain cautious for at least Q4 2026 and Q1/Q2 2027.
Other Key Points:
- Fortuna Mining controls 35km of the gold belt in West Africa, providing multiple targets for expansion.
- The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $600M total liquidity, enabling organic funding of growth without dilution.
- All technical information reviewed by a qualified person under National Instrument 43-101.
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- FORTUNA MINING CORP
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