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Earnings Call Transcripts·

Q3 2026 Financial and Operational Results Webcast - FORTUNA MINING CORP

  • Explicit Guidance:

    • Production: Targeting annual gold production of ~200,000 ounces at Seguela and a 60% growth in total annual production to ~500,000 ounces starting mid-2028.
    • 2026 Full-Year Guidance:
      • Seguela: On track to achieve the lower end of guidance (281,000–305,000 ounces annual range) despite Q3 shortfalls.
      • Lindero: On track to achieve full-year guidance of 92,000–102,000 ounces.
      • Cayoma: Well-positioned to exceed guidance of 29,000–33,000 gold equivalent ounces (AuEq).
    • Costs (All-in Sustaining Costs - AISC):
      • Q4 2026 AISC expected to trend down but remain ~5% above the top end of full-year guidance due to external factors.
      • Full-year 2026 AISC expected to finish 8–10% above the top end of guidance ($1,975/oz AuEq) due to persistent diesel, royalty, and macro factors in Argentina; stripping out these factors would result in AISC at or just above the top end.
    • Capex:
      • Expect sustaining capital expenditures to increase in Q4 2026 to $30–34 million.
      • Authorized $250 million in contract awards for Diambasud expansion, spread across the construction timeline.
      • Projected $750 million total investment in growth and exploration over the next two years (2026–2027).
    • Capital Allocation: Share buybacks paused during the current quarter; program to remain cautious through Q1 and Q2 2027 to prioritize funding the $750 million growth program. Repurchases to resume opportunistically thereafter based on project funding needs and liquidity.
  • Business-Segment Outlook:

    • Seguela (Côte d'Ivoire): Plant expansion (30% capacity increase) completed/commissioned in Q3 2028. Underground development at Seguela scheduled to begin Q2 2027. Drilling paused at Sunbird/Seguela deep zones until underground infrastructure is available; focus shifted to early-stage targets and open pit extensions.
    • Diambasud (Senegal): Targeting first gold in mid-2028. Exploitation permit expected in Q4 2026. Construction formal start scheduled for late November 2026. EPCM contract awarded to Senate; bulk packages totaling $250 million ready for execution upon final investment decision.
    • Bambadji (Senegal): Acquisition closed at $206 million. Six drill rigs mobilized to Caddy West, Wadi, and Latifa. First resource estimate for Caddy West (2km from Diambasud plant) targeted for year-end 2026. Plans to integrate Bambadji permits into Diambasud mining convention to streamline operations.
    • Lindero (Argentina): Production weighted toward H2 2026. Exploration drilling expanded to 8,500m; updated life-of-mine plan and resource estimates targeted for Q1 2027.
    • Cayoma (Peru): Tailings dam No. 3 expansion 71% complete, scheduled for year-end 2026 completion.
  • Market and Competitive Outlook:

    • Pricing & Costs: Anticipated inflationary pressure on consumables (diesel +60%, explosives +30% vs. guidance) at Lindero due to macroeconomic conditions. Seguela faces less diesel inflation due to government price controls but faces rising mining contractor costs.
    • Demand/Supply: Management emphasizes "low-hanging fruit" in exploration (Caddy West, Wadi, Latifa) to rapidly generate resources.
    • Share Structure: No share issuances planned to fund growth; focus on organic funding via free cash flow and existing liquidity to avoid over-leveraging.
  • Macro / Industry Outlook:

    • Argentina: Persistent macroeconomic factors (peso appreciation, inflation) and withholding taxes/deferred tax rules are driving higher AISC (45% of the $220/oz external variance).
    • Senegal: Mining Convention negotiations progressing; aiming for a 10-year stabilized regime under the 2016 Mining Code.
    • Côte d'Ivoire: Operational risk from artisanal miners following a police anti-illegal-mining operation; management prioritizes maintaining community relations to mitigate future blockades.
    • FX: Effective tax rate of 47% expected to remain stable; FX losses driven by repatriation needs.
  • Strategic Initiatives:

    • Growth Program: Executing a $750 million growth program over the next two years to deliver 60% production growth by mid-2028.
    • M&A: Completed $206 million acquisition of Bambadji concession to add exploration upside and potential near-term resource integration with Diambasud.
    • Capacity Expansion: $109 million final investment decision (July 2026) for Seguela plant expansion; 75% of equipment vendors selected.
    • Construction: Diambasud construction timeline initiated with early works (accommodation, access road) and EPCM contract award.
    • Exploration Budget: Approved $8 million for Q4 2026; anticipating a substantial 2027 budget.
  • Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

    • Operational: Temporary stoppages at Seguela (artesian mining blockades) and equipment availability issues.
    • Regulatory/Political: Permitting delays in Senegal (exploitation permit); potential for future blockades or community unrest at Seguela following police actions.
    • Cost Inflation: Diesel, explosives, and payroll cost inflation in Argentina and Senegal could push AISC further above guidance.
    • Financing: Execution of growth projects requires disciplined capital allocation; any deviation could impact liquidity or necessitate share issuance.
  • Management Tone on the Future:

    • Confidence: High confidence in the execution of the growth strategy and the financial capacity to fund it without dilution.
    • Cautious on Returns: Explicitly cautious regarding share buybacks in Q4 2026 and Q1/Q2 2027 to prioritize growth capex.
    • Operational Outlook: Confident in a strong finish to 2026 and a return to first-half production levels, acknowledging external cost headwinds as temporary or manageable through operational improvements.
  • Miscellaneous:

    • Safety: YTD TRIFR of 1.23 (below target of 1.37); Cayoma (1,950 days LTI-free) and Lindero (1,080 days LTI-free) recognized.
    • Liquidity: $443 million cash held at Sept 30, 2026; ~$600 million total liquidity; net cash position $260 million (down $160 million from previous quarter due to Bambadji acquisition).
    • Technical: Technical data reviewed and approved by Eric Chapman (qualified person under NI 43-101).
Company
FORTUNA MINING CORP
Keywords
FORTUNA MINING CORP