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Earnings Call Transcripts·

Q3 2026 FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL RESULTS WEBCAST - FORTUNA MINING CORP

  • Financial Performance:

    • Q3 2026 production reached 69,665 gold equivalent ounces (geo), remaining on track for full-year guidance of 281,000–305,000 ounces.
    • Adjusted EBITDA was $165 million and adjusted net income was $51 million ($0.17/share), down from the prior quarter due to lower sales volumes, higher realized costs, and share-based compensation.
    • Free cash flow from operations was $90.8 million in Q3; Year-to-date (YTD) FCF was $350 million, with YTD sales at $954 million and adjusted net income at $238 million ($0.79/share).
    • Cash costs rose to $1,244/geo (up from $1,034 in Q2), while All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) reached $2,286/geo (up $129/geo), driven by production shortfalls at Seguela, higher consumable prices, and $10.9 million in non-cash share-based compensation.
    • Balance sheet strength: $443 million in cash, ~$600 million total liquidity, and a net cash position of $260 million (down ~$160 million primarily due to the Bambadji acquisition).
  • Guidance and Future Outlook:

    • Management targets a 60% growth in annual gold production, reaching ~500,000 ounces/year by mid-2028.
    • Q4 AISC is expected to trend down but will likely remain ~5% above the upper end of guidance due to external factors; full-year 2026 AISC is projected 8–10% above guidance unless external factors are stripped out.
    • Capital allocation priority is growth funding over share buybacks; $750 million is earmarked for growth and exploration over the next two years.
    • Share repurchases are paused through 2027 to fund capital projects; YTD buybacks totaled $106 million (10.8 million shares) before the pause.
  • Business Segments and Product Lines:

    • Seguela (West Africa): Recovered from a July/August production shortfall caused by an artisanal miner blockade; production volumes returned to plan in September. Final Investment Decision (FID) made for a $109 million plant expansion (30% capacity increase) targeting 200,000+ ounces annually by Q3 2028.
    • Bambadji (Senegal): $206 million acquisition closed; six drill rigs mobilized targeting maiden resource for Caddy West (2km from Ambassud plant) by year-end. Mining convention negotiations in final stages, stabilizing terms for a decade.
    • Ambasud (Senegal): Government issued notice of admissibility for the exploitation permit on Nov 2; expected permit issuance in Q4. Construction expected to begin late Nov; $250 million in contract awards authorized. First gold targeted for mid-2028.
    • Lindero (Argentina): Produced 26,000 ounces (+25% QoQ); on track for 92,000–102,000 ounces annual guidance. Improved crusher reliability and stacking rates drove performance, though costs were impacted by inflation.
    • Cayoma (Peru): Delivered 9,900 geo ounces; silver, lead, and zinc production exceeded expectations due to higher grades. Tailings dam expansion 71% complete, on schedule for year-end.
    • Cayoma & Lindero: Combined 1,950 and 1,080 days LTI-free respectively; YTD TRIFR was 1.23, below the corporate target of 1.37.
  • Market and Competitive Landscape:

    • Inflationary pressures on consumables (diesel, explosives) are impacting costs, particularly at Lindero where diesel costs rose ~60% and explosives ~30% relative to guidance.
    • Macroeconomic factors in Argentina (currency appreciation, withholding taxes) and cost pressures in Côte d'Ivoire (contractor costs) are creating temporary cost headwinds.
    • The Bambadji acquisition leverages prior Barrick drilling data to identify low-hanging fruit, positioning Fortuna against competitors by accelerating resource definition in a high-priority district.
  • Risks and Challenges:

    • Operational: Temporary site-wide stoppage at Seguela due to an illegal mining crackdown by government forces triggered protests and a blockade; safety incident recorded (one LTI) involving a light vehicle.
    • Permitting: Ambassud permit timeline remains dependent on final government approval; while admissibility is granted, the final exploitation permit and mining convention negotiations are critical path items.
    • Regulatory: Potential macroeconomic instability in Argentina and regulatory interactions with artisanal miners in Côte d'Ivoire present execution risks.
    • Cost Volatility: Persistent inflation in fuel and explosives, combined with tax rules in Argentina, risks keeping AISC above guidance levels for 2026.
  • Management Commentary and Tone:

    • Tone was confident and forward-looking regarding the growth pipeline, emphasizing strong balance sheet capacity to fund the $750M program organically without share dilution.
    • Management acknowledged Q3 operating challenges at Seguela as "contained" and expressed clear commitment to safety and operational discipline.
    • Emphasis placed on strategic patience: prioritizing capital deployment for growth over immediate shareholder returns (buybacks) to ensure long-term value creation.
  • Analyst Questions and Answers:

    • Exploration & Drilling: Management confirmed 5 core and 1 RC rigs are active at Bambadji; focus is Caddy West (resource by year-end), then Wadi and Latifa. Seguela drilling paused at depth (Sandberg) until underground infrastructure is ready in 2027.
    • Buyback Strategy: Buybacks remain paused through at least Q2 2027; resumption depends on the pace of capital deployment and maintaining balance sheet strength.
    • Seguela Blockade: Triggered by a police anti-illegal-mining operation in a nearby village resulting in fatalities and protests; operations resumed within 6 days of the incident, and community relations are being managed.
    • Integration of Bambadji: Discussions are underway with the Minister of Mines to integrate Bambadji permits and the Mining Convention with Ambassud, as Caddy West is adjacent to the existing plant.
  • Other Key Points:

    • Technical data reviewed and approved by a Qualified Person (Eric Chapman).
    • Lindero's Q3 performance reflects a shift to a heavier production weighting in the second half of the year.
    • The Seguela plant expansion and Ambassud construction rely on a proven team and technically straightforward development plans.
    • Management highlighted the "no-charge" nature of the Seguela shortfall resolution, noting that corrective measures were immediate and effective.
Company
FORTUNA MINING CORP
Keywords
FORTUNA MINING CORP