Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call - ARIS MINING CORP
Financial Performance:
- Q3 2026 revenue reached $287 million with adjusted EBITDA of $144 million; trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA exceeds $700 million.
- Adjusted net earnings were $73 million ($0.35 per share); nine-month revenue totaled $972 million with adjusted earnings per share of $1.42.
- Adjusted operating cash flow after taxes for nine months was $294 million, covering 86% of year-to-date capital investments.
- Cash balance increased to $419 million at quarter-end from $392 million at the end of 2025, supported by $82 million in final stream installments.
- Total year-to-date capital investment was $341 million, including $144 million in Q4 (though transcript mentions Q4 investment in intro, financial slide details Q4 spend as part of the year; Q3 specific CapEx was $144M total, split as $86M Marmato/$41M Segovia).
- Marmato CIP plant construction costs are tracking $25 million/month; 2026 construction expenditure is forecast at ~$250 million, $30 million over original budget due to FX.
Guidance and Future Outlook:
- Full-year 2026 production guidance remains 300,000 to 350,000 ounces; Q4 target is approximately 83,000 ounces to meet the lower guidance end.
- Segovia and Marmato combined steady-state production target is ~500,000 ounces annually upon completion of current expansions.
- Marmato CIP plant first gold pour expected in December 2026; full ramp-up to 5,000 tons per day design capacity targeted by end of 2027.
- Marmato 2027 capital expenditure expected to be limited (~$40 million) pending equipment arrival, excluding the initial Q1/Q2 2027 period.
- Long-term goal is a million ounces of annual production, contingent on Toro Peru and Sota Norte development projects.
- Toro Peru Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) to be published later this month with a potential construction decision in Q1 2027.
- Sota Norte advancing permitting under a new Colombian administration; no specific timeline for production commitment yet.
Business Segments and Product Lines:
- Marmato: Commissioned the new Cascabel III tailings facility and refurbishing the flotation plant (now 1,200 tpd capacity); first gold pour expected December; new bulk mining zone operational; CIP plant in final construction stages.
- Segovia: Year-to-date production 194,000 ounces (+18% YoY); owner mining production grew 32%; contract mining production improved post-explosives resolution; new mobile equipment arriving; El Silencio service ramp completion targeted for December.
- Toro Peru: Peruni River Bridge construction underway (completion Dec); large-scale mining license application submitted; PFS focused on cost certainty and risk management using contractor mining models.
- Sota Norte: Updated technical mine plan approved by National Mining Agency; environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) preparation complete; community consultation phase next.
- Production: Q3 output was 69,000 ounces; YTD production 217,000 ounces.
Market and Competitive Landscape:
- Higher gold sales volumes and realized gold prices are the primary drivers of record year-to-date financial returns.
- Market trends show a shift in the Colombian regulatory environment with the new administration reversing previous mining restrictions, improving clarity for Sota Norte.
- Company strategy emphasizes owner-mining growth at Segovia and Marmato expansion to reduce reliance on contract mining.
- Competitive positioning is strengthened by operational upgrades (flotation capacity, tailings facility) and diversified project pipeline (four assets).
Risks and Challenges:
- Operational: Temporary explosive supply constraints impacted Segovia Q3 performance; planned flotation plant shutdown at Marmato for commissioning reduced Q3 output.
- Regulatory/Political: Colombian political and regulatory environment remains evolving; Sota Norte requires careful navigation of government relations and community consultation.
- Project Execution: Marmato construction budget exceeded original estimates by $30 million due to currency fluctuations (stronger Colombian peso).
- Capital Intensity: Significant ongoing capital requirements for Marmato expansion and Segovia development to meet growth targets.
Management Commentary and Tone:
- Management tone is confident and forward-looking, emphasizing the resolution of near-term bottlenecks (explosives, plant commissioning).
- CEO Neil Whittier highlighted clear milestones and the trajectory toward doubling production capacity over the long term.
- CFO Cam and COO Dustin provided detailed operational assurances regarding Q4 production recovery and 2027 capacity ramp-ups.
- Acknowledgment of cost overruns at Marmato attributed strictly to FX impacts, maintaining confidence in project viability.
Analyst Questions and Answers:
- Segovia Q3 Impact: Analyst asked for quantification of explosive constraints; management estimated Q4 production at 70,000–75,000 ounces due to rectified issues and higher mining rates.
- Segovia Exit Rate: Management confirmed plans to reach nameplate capacity in 2027, driven by the El Silencio ramp and fleet expansion.
- Marmato CapEx: Analyst requested 2027 capital estimates; management clarified 2026 spend is ~$250M (vs $220M budget) and 2027 spend will be limited to ~$40M after initial Q1/Q2 ramp.
- Correction: Management clarified a transcript error regarding 2036 dates, confirming all figures relate to the current 2026 cycle.
Other Key Points:
- Marmato expansion accounts for ~60% of total year-to-date capital spending.
- Updated NI 43-101 technical report and mineral reserve estimates for Marmato scheduled for Q1 2027.
- Toro Peru study adopts a "build" mindset using competitive contractor quotations rather than assuming owner-operated fleets to control execution risk.
- Sota Norte remains a key component of the long-term growth strategy despite the evolving regulatory pace in Colombia.
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