Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call - ARIS MINING CORP
Explicit Guidance:
- Full-Year 2026 Production: Targeting the lower end of the guidance range, 300,000 to 350,000 ounces, requiring approximately 83,000 ounces in Q4.
- FY2026 Capital Expenditure (Marmato): Forecasting $250 million in total construction expenditure (vs. original budget of $220 million), with $75 million planned for Q4 2026.
- FY2027 Capital Expenditure (Marmato): Expecting limited capital spend from August 2026 through July 2027, followed by approximately $40 million for equipment installation and finalization.
- Q4 2026 Production (Segovia): Expecting meaningful increase to approximately 70,000–75,000 ounces in the quarter.
Business-Segment Outlook:
- Marmato:
- Q4 2026: Strong production profile expected; first gold pour anticipated in December.
- 2027: Stage production ramp-up expected throughout the year.
- Capacity: Flotation plant capacity increased to 1,200 tons per day.
- Long-term Target: Aiming for full 5,000 tons per day design capacity by the end of 2027.
- Reporting: New NI 43-101 technical report (including mineral reserve/resource estimates) planned for Q1 2027.
- Segovia:
- Q4 2026: Production recovery expected as explosives access is restored and new mobile equipment arrives.
- Milestones: New El Silencio service ramp completion in December; updated mineral reserve/resource statement in November.
- Long-term: Combined steady-state target with Marmato of ~500,000 ounces/year.
- Exit Rate 2027: Targeting "nameplate capacity" with reaching strong ramp-up performance.
- Torro Peru:
- Timeline: Pre-feasibility study (PFS) completion expected in November; potential construction decision in Q1 2027 (post-first gold pour at Marmato).
- Construction: 109-metre Peruni River Bridge targeted for completion in December.
- Permitting: Large-scale mining licence application submitted; progressing with Government of Guyana.
- Sota Norte:
- Permitting: Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) preparation complete; formal community consultation next, followed by final ESIA and environmental licence application.
- Regulatory: Progress noted due to new Colombian government reversing previous restrictions.
- Marmato:
Market and Competitive Outlook:
- Production Dynamics: Expecting improved contract mining partner (CMP) production at Segovia now that explosives permits are resolved.
- Operational Efficiency: Marmato utilizing new Cascabel III tailings facility to enable maintenance and upgrades during planned shutdowns, increasing long-term processing reliability.
- Strategic Scale: Portfolio aimed at a potential 1 million ounces of annual gold production via the combination of Segovia, Marmato (steady state) and Toro Peru, Sota Norte (development).
Macro / Industry Outlook:
- Foreign Exchange (FX): Stronger Colombian peso identified as the primary driver for the $30 million FY2026 Marmato budget overrun.
- Regulatory Environment (Colombia): "New Colombian administration" providing appropriate access to explosives at Marmato and reversing restrictions at Sota Norte, improving clarity for permitting.
- Commodity Prices: Record year-to-date returns driven by higher realized gold prices (referenced as a trend, not explicit guidance).
Strategic Initiatives:
- Marmato Expansion:
- CIP Plant: Commissioning underway; final stages of construction; first gold pour in December.
- Tailings: Commissioning of new Cascabel III filtered tailings facility (completed Q3).
- Bulk Mining: New bulk mining zone operational; transitioning to new tailings storage facility.
- Equipment: Integration of new regrind mill and Nelson concentrator; refurbishment of primary ball mill.
- Segovia Development:
- Fleet: Implementation of fleet expansion and underground development to increase mining rates and haulage capacity.
- Infrastructure: Construction of new El Silencio service ramp (completion Dec).
- Torro Peru:
- Project Delivery: Adopting a "practical, executable plan" utilizing competitive international mining contractors rather than owner-operated fleets to manage execution risk.
- Mine Design: Conservative approach with stage pit development and dual access ramps.
- M&A/Capital Allocation: Continuing investment to finish Marmato expansion, invest at Segovia, and advance development projects; cash balance of $419 million (as of Q3 2026) supports these initiatives.
- Marmato Expansion:
Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:
- Production Volatility: Future Q4 and 2027 production profiles remain dependent on successful ramp-up of the new CIP plant and achieving nameplate capacity.
- Permitting Uncertainty: Sota Norte and Torro Peru timelines are subject to permitting completion; Sota Norte noted as having an "evolving" regulatory environment requiring a "measured approach."
- Cost Variance: FX fluctuations (stronger peso) have already caused a $30 million budget overrun for Marmato in 2026.
- Execution Risk: Marmato expansion relied on a planned four-week shutdown; delays in equipment installation or ramp-up could impact 2027 targets.
Management Tone on the Future:
- Confidence: High confidence in Q4 recovery at Segovia and Marmato's near-term milestones ("clear near-term milestones," "stronger production in Q4").
- Cautious Optimism: Explicitly "encouraged" by Colombian regulatory changes but maintaining a "measured approach" for Sota Norte.
- Strategic Focus: Shift from exploration to execution, with a mindset of "preparing to build the mine" at Torro Peru, focusing on "cost certainty" and "operational reliability."
Miscellaneous:
- Cash Flow: Q3 adjusted EBITDA ($144M) equaled total capital investment ($144M); trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA exceeds $700 million.
- Stream Proceeds: Received last two installments of Marmato stream totaling $82 million in H1 2026.
- Financial Position: Ending Q3 2026 with $419 million in cash.
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- ARIS MINING CORP
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- ARIS MINING CORP