Vista's 3rd Quarter 2026 Earnings Webcast - VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV

Financial Performance:

• Total Q3 2026 revenue reached $1.23 billion, a 75% year-over-year (YoY) increase driven by 33% higher production and 30% higher realized oil prices ($84.2/bbl).
• Adjusted EBITDA surged 78% YoY to $841 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 68%; net income was $293 million compared to $27 million in Q3 2025 (excluding $288M non-recurring gain from Petronas acquisition).
• Operating cash flow was $773 million, while free cash flow (FCF) generation was robust at $334 million for the quarter and $563 million year-to-date (excluding M&A payments).
• Total production averaged 169,000 MBOEs/day (147,000 bpd oil), up 33% YoY and 8% sequentially; oil production grew 34% YoY.
• Lifting costs were $4.7/BOE (up 6% YoY due to peso inflation); selling expenses decreased 14% YoY to $3.6/BOE due to volume dilution of fixed "ship-or-pay" costs.
• Net leverage ratio improved significantly to 1.12x (performance basis) and 1.04x (pro forma including 12-month EBITDA of acquired assets) as of quarter-end.
• Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short-term Investments (CASCO) position grew to $775 million.

Guidance and Future Outlook:

• Reiterated 2026 production guidance of 158,000 BOE/day, with Q4 outlook upgraded to approximately 175,000 BOE/day based on strong September performance.
• Confirmed 2027 production guidance of 185,000 bpd oil/day, supported by a projected production profile similar to 2026.
• Maintained 2027 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3.3 billion assuming $80/bbl Brent prices (sensitivity: $1 price change impacts EBITDA by $45-$50 million).
• Q3 2026 Capex was $461 million (sequentially flat); considering potential RIGI project acceleration, may add a drilling rig in 2027, pushing total wells toward the high end of the 100-110 range.
• Share buyback program has $95 million remaining from the $150 million 2026 approved plan, with potential for increased buybacks in 2027-2028 using accumulated cash flow.

Business Segments and Product Lines:

• Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro assets were fully consolidated (working interest), contributing three months of production in Q3 (acquired May 1st), driving significant volume growth.
• Connected 25 new wells in Q3; cumulative 90 new wells tied in over the last 12 months, operating at a run rate of 100 wells/year.
• Export volumes reached 9.9 million barrels (73% of oil sales), representing $935 million in exports.
• Expansion of well inventory: Bajo del Toro (146 wells/14,000 acres) and Aguila Mora (potential for 4 landing zones currently testing 2).
• Investigating new landing zones in Bajo El Palo Oeste (upper carbonates and organic content) and progressing toward deeper zones in Vaca Muerta oil window.

Market and Competitive Landscape:

• Realized oil prices were $84.2/bbl, 30% higher than Q3 2025 but 6% lower than Q2 2026 (sequential dip due to Brent falling from $97 to $91).
• Company maintains a dominant position in the Vaca Muerta oil window, focusing strictly on this core acreage for M&A and growth.
• Pipeline capacity remains non-binding with 180,000 bpd total capacity (20% spare/36,000 bpd available), comprising Old Elbal (78k), Duplicar (72k), and Vaca Muerta Norte (32k).
• VAMOS pipeline project: Mechanical completion scheduled for end of 2026; commercial operation expected in H1 2027 with initial 80,000 bpd capacity scaling to 50,000 bpd in H1 2028.

Risks and Challenges:

• Inflationary pressure on peso-denominated goods and services contributed to a 6% increase in lifting costs.
• Potential delays in Vaca Muerta Norte "RIGI" project approval could impact timing of 2028 Capex acceleration (currently planned to bring forward from 2029).
• Operational risks include flood effects and exchange rate fluctuations, though managed through strong cash flow generation.

Management Commentary and Tone:

• Tone was highly confident and positive, citing "robust operational and financial performance" and "solid execution."
• Management emphasized discipline in capital allocation, focusing on core Vaca Muerta assets and maintaining a strong balance sheet (leverage <1.15x).
• CEO Miguel Galucho highlighted the successful consolidation of key assets and the company being "well on track" to deliver 2026 items.

Analyst Questions and Answers:

• Pipeline Capacity (JP Morgan): Confirmed no bottleneck exists; current production (152k bpd in Sept) is well below 180k bpd capacity, with VAMOS pipeline operational in H1 2027.
• M&A Opportunities (Bank of America): No active M&A processes currently; leverage expected to hit ~1.0x by year-end, providing flexibility for opportunistic deals in the core oil window.
• Landing Zone Upside (Morgan Stanley): Confirmed untested zones exist in Bajo El Palo Oeste and Aguila Mora; development strategy follows a "Shell" approach, prioritizing deepest/richest zones first.
• 2027 Outlook & Capex (Jefferies): Reaffirmed $3.3B EBITDA guidance at $80 Brent; potential to add a rig in 2027 if RIGI approval is granted, accelerating Bandurria Norte project.
• Capital Return Strategy (UBS): FCF will continue to be deployed via buybacks (pending $95M in 2026) and potential Capex acceleration (RIGI) or larger buybacks in 2027-2028; M&A remains on the table for value-generating opportunities.

Other Key Points:

• Net non-controlling interest excluded from results includes 16.3% stake in Bandurria Sur (30% non-operated working interest).
• Q3 saw $50 million income tax payment and $60 million net capital debt repayment.
• Audio difficulties interrupted Miguel's response to one question, which was successfully continued by IRO Alejandro Chernakoff.