Vista's 3rd Quarter 2026 Earnings Webcast - VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV

Explicit Guidance:

• 2026 Production: Expect to meet guidance of 158,000 BOEs per day (annual average); Q4 soft guidance updated upward to 170,000–175,000 BOEs per day.
• 2027 Production: Reiterate guidance of 185,000 oil barrels per day (OPD).
• 2028 Outlook: Anticipate a quarterly production ramp profile similar to 2026; no specific numerical target provided, but expects continued growth trajectory.
• 2027 Financials (Adjusted EBITDA): Reiterate guidance of $3.3 billion, assuming a Brent price of $80/barrel.
• Sensitivity: A $1 change in Brent price or differential results in a $45–$50 million delta to 2027 Adjusted EBITDA.
• 2026 Buybacks: $95 million remaining of the $150 million approved plan for the full year (Q4 expected to execute remaining balance given positive FCF).
• Leverage Target: Net leverage ratio expected to reach 1.0x by end of 2026.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Drilling Activity: Current run rate of 100 wells per year; potential to add one drilling rig in 2027, pushing activity toward the higher end of the 100–110 well guidance range.
• Infrastructure (VAMOS): Mechanical completion scheduled for end of 2026; pipeline filling begins Q1 2027. Commercial operation expected in H1 2027, with 80,000 bbl/day capacity ramping to 50,000 bbl/day in H2.
• Capacity Utilization: Current pipeline capacity stands at 180,000 bbl/day (20% spare capacity); no bottlenecks expected for current growth plans.
• Asset Development:
  • Bajo El Palo Oeste: Plans to test upper carbonates and study organic content; aiming to add landing zones as seen in neighboring full-field blocks.
  • Bandurria Norte: Project timeline accelerated from 2029 to 2027 pending regulatory reapproval; will drive additional CapEx.
  • Aguila Mora: Inventory of 21,000 acres with 100 wells; testing four landing zones vs. two currently piloted.
  • Bajo del Toro: Inventory of 146 wells across 14,000 acres.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Price Environment: Q3 realized oil prices were $84.2/bbl (30% YoY increase, 6% QoQ decrease); management attributes sequential decline to Brent spot price drop ($97 to $91).
• Demand/Sales: Exports reached 9.9 million barrels (56% YoY increase), representing 73% of total oil sales volume.
• Pricing Strategy: 100% of volumes sold at export parity prices.
• Cost Structure: Lifting costs at $4.7/BOE (6% YoY increase) due to peso inflation; selling expenses decreased 14% YoY due to volume dilution of ship-or-pay costs.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• FX Inflation: Management acknowledges inflationary pressure on pesos-dominating goods and services impacting unit costs.
• Regulatory: Growth plan contingent on regulatory approval for Bandurria Norte reapplication (RIGI project).
• Currency/Commodities: No explicit currency hedging guidance mentioned; reliance on Brent futures and export parity pricing.

Strategic Initiatives:

• M&A: Leverage ratio expected to hit 1.0x by end-2026, providing flexibility for opportunistic acquisitions. No active M&A processes; focused strictly on core acreage in Vaca Muerta's oil window.
• Capital Allocation: Strategy involves allocating excess free cash flow to share buybacks (larger buybacks expected in 2027/2028), potential CapEx acceleration on Bandurria Norte, or further debt reduction.
• Operational Expansion: Potential addition of one drilling rig in 2027 linked to Bandurria Norte project acceleration.
• Well Completion: Ramp-up of 100 wells per year run rate; cumulative 90 new wells tied in over the last 12 months driving current growth.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Regulatory Risk: Timeline for 2027 CapEx and Bandurria Norte project acceleration depends on "reapplication get approved."
• Price Sensitivity: 2027 EBITDA guidance is highly sensitive to Brent/Differential movements ($45–$50m delta per $1).
• Inflation: Continued peso inflation on local goods/services could pressure lifting costs beyond the current 6% increase.
• Production Volatility: September production was 152,000 BOPD; October/November expected to flatten, indicating operational variability before year-end ramp.
• Supply Chain/Infrastructure: While no current bottlenecks, VAMOS pipeline fill-in timing (Q1 2027) and commercial operation (H1 2027) remain critical milestones.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence Level: High. Management uses terms like "very good progress," "well on track," "reinforcing" guidance, and "confident" regarding inventory upsides.
• Discipline: Emphasizes discipline in M&A, focusing only on core acreage; disciplined share buyback execution ($55m executed vs. $95m pending).
• Balance Sheet: Expresses strong confidence in balance sheet strength, noting a reduction in net leverage from 1.41x to 1.12x and targeting 1.0x.
• Forward-Looking Language: Indicates a shift toward "acceleration" of projects (Bandurria Norte) and increased shareholder returns (buybacks) as cash reserves grow.

Miscellaneous:

• Non-Controlling Interest: Results adjusted to exclude 16.3% non-controlling interest in Bandurria Sur (30% non-operated working interest, 25.1% attributable to Vista).
• Tax: Included $50 million income tax payment in Q3 operating cash flow.
• Acquisition Impact: Full consolidation of Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro contributed to record production; Q3 results reflect 3 months of Bandurria Sur production (vs. 2 months Q2).