Are You Investing in the Workforce of Tomorrow or the Workforce of Yesterday?

Panel Overview & Context

• The session features Greg Capelli (CEO, Apollo Education Group) moderating a discussion on the "workforce of tomorrow" with experts from the U.S. Department of Labor, AT&T, Goldman Sachs, Run for America, and the Milken Institute.
• Capelli notes that 50% of recruitment spending yields no positive ROI, largely because employees change jobs 11–13 times on average in the U.S., leading to poor job fits.

The "Skills Gap" Debate

• Seth Harris (Skills Gap Skeptic): Argues the issue is often a "skills gap" myth driven by poor employer preparation; he cites a lack of partnerships with community colleges, veterans' organizations, and competency-based job definitions as root causes.
• John Donovan (AT&T): Identifies as a "skills gap immersive," stating that rapid technological shifts (e.g., Google/Amazon competition) threaten ~280,000 employees' relevancy within 24 months.
• David Bernstein (Millennial Lens): Distinguishes an "understanding gap" from a "skills gap," asserting that millennials possess high adaptability and that the primary deficit is employers' ability to manage attitude and challenge-seeking behaviors.
• Jared Bernstein (Economic Policy Fellow): Questions the economic data, noting that if a true skill shortage existed, wage premiums for high-skill workers should be rising sharply; currently, these premiums are flat despite high historical levels.

Demographic & Workforce Shifts

• Millennial Characteristics: The 22–35 demographic comprises 60% of Goldman Sachs' workforce; they prioritize purpose, social impact, and continuous learning over traditional loyalty, often leaving roles once they hit a ceiling rather than due to disloyalty.
• Gig Economy Growth: Alternative work arrangements (contractors, temps) grew from ~10% in 2005 to over 15% recently, with the largest expansion in temporary help and contract workers rather than pure independent contractors.
• Wage & Automation Concerns: While top-tier STEM wages are high, middle-class and entry-level wages have stagnated; low-skill roles like truck driving and home health aides face significant automation threats, yet remain top job growth projections for the next decade.

Corporate Interventions & Strategies

• AT&T's Reskilling Model: Defined 96 "roles" (broader than jobs) and launched a nano-degree program in partnership with Georgia Tech and Udacity; over 120,000 employees registered, completing 1.8 million courses, with retention in management/tech roles described as "negligible" turnover.
• Goldman Sachs' Cultural Pivot: Shifted focus from "finance major" pipelines to broad competency sets; implemented rigorous unconscious bias training and human-centric interviews to maintain relevance with a younger, more diverse workforce.
• Government Initiatives: The Labor Department's Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training Act (TACT) invested $2 billion to force employer-college partnerships, successfully scaling programs in diverse sectors like luxury boat building.

Systemic Challenges & Future Outlook

• The Training Burden Shift: As reliance on contract and gig work grows, the burden of upskilling shifts from the employer to the individual, creating financial insecurity for those in low-wage, high-turnover sectors.
• Low-Skill Workforce Quality: Jared Bernstein warns against focusing only on the "top of the pay scale," urging attention to the quality of 5 million+ low-skill jobs (retail, childcare, aides) which are critical to GDP but often lack technical upskilling pathways.
• Automation Risks: Experts note that while STEM graduates are produced in developing nations at 5x the rate of developed nations, a significant portion are underemployed; conversely, even non-STEM roles require rapid technological integration to avoid obsolescence.
• Retention in Hard Sectors: For industries like "welfare-to-work" with 52% turnover due to challenging client interactions, retention requires "incessant, maniacal" focus on inspiration and daily support rather than financial incentives alone.

Forward-Looking Statements

• Education remains the primary driver of individual power and global mobility, regardless of degree length (short-term certificates vs. traditional degrees).
• The workforce must evolve from "hiring for a job" to "hiring for a role" that allows for continuous progress and competency re-earning over time.
• Policymakers and corporations must address the "dehumanization" of project-based work and the gig economy by rethinking benefit structures and training investment responsibilities.