Panel
Are You Investing in the Workforce of Tomorrow or the Workforce of Yesterday?
Milken InstituteGregory Cappelli, Jared Bernstein, David Burstein, Edith Cooper, John Donovan, Seth Harris, Greg Capelli, John Aucott, Jr., Mike Milkinson, Serena Ross
- John Donovan of AT&T projects that within 24 months, 50,000 of the company's 280,000 affected employees will be "behind the curve," with 80,000 currently in an "alarm state" requiring rapid skill adaptation, while 1,800,000 courses have been completed by 120,000 registered employees.
- Seth Harris argues that the absence of upward wage pressure for skilled workers relative to less skilled workers contradicts the narrative of a significant skill shortage, though he anticipates the $2 billion, four-year Trade Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training Act will fund training for tens to hundreds of thousands of workers.
- David Bernstein projects that millennials will hold 12 different jobs by age 33 or 34, with the 10 fastest-growing occupations over the next decade concentrated in the lowest wage quartile, while noting emerging economies will produce 16 million STEM graduates annually compared to 3.3 million from developed nations.
- Edith Cooper of Goldman Sachs highlights that 60% of the firm's workforce falls within the 22 to 35 demographic, necessitating a cultural shift away from the traditional "back office mentality" to retain talent and adapt to consumer behavior driven by this generation.
- Greg Capelli contends that the "skills gap" is often a misnomer resulting from companies' failure to define competencies or partner with educational institutions, noting that 50% of recruitment spending yields no ROI due to high turnover rates where employees change jobs 11 to 13 times.
- Jared Bernstein expresses uncertainty regarding potential 50% unemployment caused by automation and AI, specifically citing risks to truck drivers and healthcare aides, while warning that a future prioritizing efficiency could lead to minimal human interaction.
- Seth Harris and David Bernstein identify a policy gap regarding the rise of independent contractors and the gig economy, which shifts skill development burdens to individuals without the benefit of traditional employee security or legal protections.
- John Donovan expects legacy companies must fundamentally rethink workforce strategies to compete with tech firms like Google and Amazon, requiring employees to "re-earn" competency through graded "re-scaling" initiatives rather than simple training checklists.
- David Bernstein predicts that the 21st century will shift focus from production to optimizing existing infrastructure, whereas Jared Bernstein warns that self-driving cars could eventually lead to societal restrictions on human driving.
- Seth Harris anticipates the largest growth in alternative work arrangements occurs among temporary help and contract workers rather than independent contractors, and expects government to provide flexible training options including degrees and credentials to support these workers.