How Ukraine blinded Russia’s drones: Operation Vivaldi explained | The Economist

Operational Environment and Tactical Shifts

• Front lines have evolved into "kill zones" or "contested zones" 20–40 km wide, characterized by surface inaccessibility similar to First World War trench warfare.
• Russian infiltration tactics involving small infantry waves have become ineffective due to immediate interdiction by combined drone and artillery fire.
• Ukraine adopted a "peel back the system" intelligence strategy, mapping Russian drone operations and supply nodes over months before attempting physical advances.
• The initial phase of Operation Vivaldi targeted Russian drone supply nodes and command structures to blind the enemy's surveillance and create operational windows.

Strike Ranges and Unmanned Systems

• Mid-range strikes (200–400 km): Executed by large, Starlink-guided drones to disrupt deep supply chains ("hitting the warehouse rather than the delivery van"), with a primary focus on strangling Crimea.
• Long-range strikes (>250 km): Rapidly increased due to the deployment of the "5.1" workhorse drone, expanding Ukraine's ability to target previously out-of-range facilities.
• Mid-range campaigns have shifted from tactical front-line support to attacking economic targets on Russia's west coast (e.g., Novorossiysk) and shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Strategic Targeting and Impact

• Refinery Statistics: Russian diesel export capacity dropped from approximately 800,000 barrels per day to 140,000 barrels per day following targeted strikes on oil refineries.
• Primary Targets: Despite high visibility, refineries constitute a small share of total strikes; the majority target the military-industrial complex, including glide bomb propellant plants, aircraft manufacturers, and ballistic missile facilities.
• Russian Response Volume: Russia has increased deep strikes on Ukraine to five times the volume of Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russia.
• Russian Drone Proliferation: Production of Shahid-derived "Geran" drones has surged to 28,000 annually (up from low thousands), leveraging jet propulsion to reduce Ukrainian interception rates from 80–90% down to 30–40%.

Geopolitical and Economic Consequences

• Insurance Spike: Ukraine's attacks on Black Sea export facilities caused insurance premiums for vessels docking in Novorossiysk to spike to 20% of vessel value, compared to 1% during the Battle of the Atlantic.
• Political Friction: Critics question whether Ukraine's targeting of global energy supply was strategically sound versus politically counterproductive, potentially inflating global prices and affecting US economic interests.
• Information Warfare: Russia aims to frame Ukraine's asymmetric attacks as the root cause of global economic pain (food and fuel prices) to shift diplomatic blame and pressure NATO allies.
• Strategic Dilemma: Ukraine, as the weaker party, is forced to inflict high costs on the enemy that may inadvertently spread pain to neutral economic actors, complicating international political support.