The Economist11 min
How Ukraine blinded Russia’s drones: Operation Vivaldi explained | The Economist
Interview, Fireside Chat
- The front lines in Ukraine are projected to remain barren depopulated "kill zones" where surface survival is non-viable due to air war clearing effects, while Russian infantry infiltration tactics are expected to fail as larger advancing forces will be immediately engaged by drone and artillery combinations.
- Ukraine anticipates creating an operational "window" by neutralizing Russian drone supply and visibility to encircle fortress belts, with mid-range strikes defined as operations between 200 to 400 kilometers behind enemy lines targeting supply chains and establishing a "stranglehold on Crimea" against Sea of Azov shipping and economic targets like Novorossiysk.
- Long-range strike operations are predicted to expand beyond the 250-kilometer limit as the availability of "5.1" drones enables access to previously out-of-range targets, with the strategic priority focused on the military supply and production system, specifically facilities manufacturing propellant, explosive casings, and aircraft to counter glide bombs traveling up to 80 to 100 kilometers.
- Despite the expectation of very material impacts on Russian oil refining capacity causing export volumes to drop from approximately 800,000 to 140,000 barrels a day, the share of strikes targeting refineries will remain "really small" relative to the total volume of attacks.
- Russia is expected to retaliate with deep strike volumes up to five times greater than those inflicted on Ukraine, while simultaneously ramping up the production of Shahid-derived "Garand" drones to up to 28,000 annually from low thousands, driving interception rates down from 8 to 9 out of 10 to approximately 3 to 4 out of 10 due to new jet-powered systems.
- Ukraine is projected to persist in targeting specific pressure points despite risks of global economic repercussions, with attacks on Black Sea facilities expected to cause insurance prices for vessels docking in Novorossiysk to spike to 20% of vessel value while Russia attempts to attribute worldwide food price surges and global economic pain to Ukrainian actions.