Panel
The Big Picture for Global Media
Milken InstituteGale Anne Hurd, Michael Lynton, Leslie Moonves, Robert Pittman, Julia Boorstin, Bob Pittman, Les Moonves, Gail Ann Hurd
- The advertising and media industries are expected to undergo rapid evolution, with radio and outdoor sectors likely to underperform relative to usage patterns in the near term, while digital billboards may reshape outdoor economics through mobile control integration.
- CBS plans to expand content distribution across platforms and pursue legal remedies against Aereo, with potential fallback strategies including financial or congressional interventions within days, or launching a dual-revenue streaming alternative if legal channels fail.
- Digital revenue is projected to grow due to major partnerships with Netflix and Amazon, as well as new entrants like Intel and Sony, driving competition that is expected to increase streaming content prices globally.
- Streaming consumption models, particularly binge-watching, are anticipated to become prevalent among younger generations and expand to holiday weekends, potentially sparking a renaissance in television drama by attracting top-tier creative talent.
- Content creators are expected to be compensated across all distribution methods, while the industry believes it has bottomed out in the music sector, with optimized cost structures and diversified revenue streams from subscriptions, downloads, and custom radio offsetting terrestrial simulcast declines.
- Advertisers are increasingly treating media spending as an investment requiring return on investment (ROI), with expectations for increased CPMs and volume in upcoming digital new fronts and upfronts.
- Mobile device penetration globally is predicted to open new revenue sources in markets previously hindered by piracy, though mobile viewing habits may require separate product strategies from PC usage.
- International markets, specifically Latin America, Eastern Europe, and the Far East, are expected to grow in importance, with simultaneous global launches planned for successful shows to mitigate piracy outside the U.S.
- Network television is predicted to retain more effective mass market reach than cable, while mid-market films ($40-$60 million) remain viable if targeting specific audiences, and summer box office performance depends on high-quality releases meeting consumer demand.
- Industry consolidation is expected to continue through cycles of merging and unmerging, with the speaker noting uncertainty regarding the next major disruptive technology given the rapid emergence of past innovations like social media and mobile.
- Consumer preferences for radio services are driven by existing platform usage, custom radio features will likely become integrated components of larger services rather than standalone businesses, and the speaker does not view "cord-nevers" as a significant threat to CBS provided high-quality live sports and in-demand shows are maintained.
- If CBS were forced to become a cable channel, 10 to 15 percent of America could lose access to its stations, though the company expects to win the Aereo legal battle, making cable carriage uncertain.