Conference Presentation, Panel
The Evolution of Music and the Music Consumer
Milken InstituteJohn Amato, Irving Azoff, Scooter Braun, Lucien Grange, Rob Light, Bob Pittman, Pascual Rotella, Scooter Bryant Gilbert Jr., David Rockefeller Jr., Mark Geiger
- Streaming services are driving increased consumer awareness across demographics, enabling older artists to expand their audience reach and ticket sales, with international markets like the UK, Ireland, Canada, and Australia showing heightened interest in live music compared to the United States.
- The festival and live touring sectors are projected to grow exponentially, driven by social media rather than disrupted by it, with established and heritage artists expected to perform increasingly well in venues worldwide.
- The industry is transitioning from a song-centric model to a comprehensive branding and multimedia business, where brands influence top social media figures and music integrates with psychographics, political views, and fashion tastes.
- Digital monetization is expected to shift toward premium subscription models, potentially reaching the 90% industry penetration seen in Sweden, alongside plans for partnerships like a YouTube premium subscription service.
- Geographic expansion targets emerging markets including Southeast Asia, the Pacific Rim, the Middle East, India, and South America, with new ventures planned for countries across all genres, not just EDM.
- New venue concepts include music-only facilities in Los Angeles with plans for expansion, as well as hybrid comedy and rock music clubs, while VIP experiences are anticipated to generate significant revenue and deepen artist-fan connections.
- Radio is expected to evolve from a home-tethered service to a companion device for connected consumers, particularly in vehicles, though relevance to teenagers may decline as they rely more on social media platforms for information and communication.
- Long-term copyright and asset ownership are viewed as perpetual revenue streams, with specific holdings like the EMI/Beatles catalog expected to provide enduring rights in perpetuity.
- Streaming revenue is predicted to reach $72 billion annually within the next decade, driven by the decline of PC usage and CD distribution challenges in specific markets, while the pace of industry transition is anticipated to accelerate.
- Strategic challenges include managing the logistical limits of artists being in multiple countries simultaneously, preserving fan self-discovery by limiting certain artist exposure on radio, and continuing to address intellectual property respect from technology services.
- The dance music genre is forecasted to explode with new sub-genres and collaborations with hip-hop and pop, creating a demand for content that producers may struggle to meet.
- The market outlook includes contradictory regional performances, with Japan facing difficult years while other regions experience growth for the first time in a decade, reflecting a complex global landscape.
- Distribution strategies will increasingly involve bundles with new phones in markets like Latin America and unique digital relationships with telcos and ISPs that vary by market.
- Social media is expected to reshape fan discovery and interaction but will not fundamentally alter the meaning of fandom, with a continued emphasis on genuine one-on-one interactions on screens.
- The music business is breaking artists at record rates globally, leading to a collective bullish outlook where all genres and age groups are performing exceptionally well.