Conference Presentation, Panel
The New Macro Playbook | Global Conference 2026
Milken InstituteStephanie Ruhle, André Esteves, George Goncalves, Karen Karniol-Tambour, Seema Shah, Jeffrey Solomon
- Global capital is diversifying away from U.S.-only exposure, potentially transforming emerging markets into a considerable asset class for global portfolios.
- Capital flows are entering the early stages of a de-dollarization trend, creating a competitive environment where non-U.S. rates vie with U.S. rates.
- Modern mercantilism will drive sovereign spending on defense, infrastructure, and rare earths to prioritize resilience over efficiency, likely resulting in long-term inflationary pressure.
- Massive AI infrastructure spending will sustain an inflationary environment by straining limited physical resources such as data centers, power, and real estate.
- Global economies are expected to remain bifurcated, with U.S. strength driven by AI and capital relief while older industries face funding challenges.
- Geopolitical conflicts are anticipated to increase in frequency, driving a general rise in market volatility.
- Producer price inflation driven by supply shocks is forecast to persist through the short-to-medium term.
- Higher interest rates may need to persist for longer durations if geopolitical conflicts continue and oil prices remain above $100.
- The U.S. economy and equity markets are currently outperforming historical models despite confluences of de-globalization, de-dollarization, and conflict.
- Market risks may be mispriced if efficiency gains from AI fail to fully offset the economic drag from de-globalization, reminiscent of the 1990s internet boom volatility.
- A trend reversal is occurring where capital is shifting from private to public equities and credit markets, reshaping market structures.
- Full productivity gains from AI are expected to be realized over the next five to ten years following the current capital expenditure phase.
- AI adoption is projected to disrupt more than 10% of the workforce within 10 years or less, with disruptive consequences barely beginning.
- A "dark pool" of capital constraints regarding resources like helium and chips could limit AI benefits within three to five years.
- Wealth disparity and resource misallocation could trigger political upheaval or class struggle within the next two to six years if inclusivity is not addressed.
- Global democracies face risks of financial repression, such as wealth or transfer taxes, within the next five years if deficits are not managed.
- Tokenization and digital assets are expected to eliminate bank free cash balances over the next decade, potentially increasing consumer credit costs.
- Regulations like the "Genius Act" may force governments to shorten debt maturities to align with faster digital payment systems and domestic investor bases.
- The fragmentation of the global economy into distinct currency blocks (Fortress North America, Europe, and Asia) is expected to weaken the dollar's long-term strength.
- The U.S. dollar is projected to remain the primary global reserve currency for four to 16 years, contingent on its brand not being damaged by policy.
- China is positioned to become a more significant foreign direct investor in global emerging market infrastructure, even without the renminbi challenging the dollar as a reserve currency.
- The conflict in the Gulf is expected to continue beyond December 31st in a reduced format with lower relevance.