Latest Interviews
Showing 31–41 of 41 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs15 min
Emerging market equities poised to overtake developed market equities
Presentations by financial strategists project a structural shift where emerging market equity capitalization rises to 55% of the global total by 2075, driven primarily by the transition of private assets to public markets and sustained GDP growth in nations like India and China. While demographic shifts and potential protectionism pose risks, the long-term outlook favors diversifying away from US exceptionalism toward a globally balanced portfolio to capture higher earnings growth and rising valuation multiples. This strategic pivot anticipates that seven of the ten largest economies in 2075 will be current emerging markets, fundamentally altering the landscape of global investment returns.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
Why ‘everything aligns’ for Japanese stocks
Driven by corporate governance reforms and a return of foreign investors, Japan's TOPIX has surged to levels not seen since 1990 as the economy transitions from deflationary stagnation to wage growth and inflation. Goldman Sachs forecasts the index to reach $2,400 by year-end and $2,500 within twelve months, recommending a barbell strategy targeting undervalued machinery and banking sectors. This outlook persists despite risks from potential US and Chinese revenue slowdowns and anticipated central bank policy adjustments.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
How Porsche CEO Oliver Blume is driving innovation
Oliver Blume, Christoph Stanger, Alison Nathan
Porsche's recent European IPO, the largest by market capitalization in the region, successfully secured billions in cornerstone commitments from Goldman Sachs to stabilize the offering amidst macro volatility. CEO Oliver Blum now directs the company toward a "Road to 20" strategy aiming for over 20% return on sales by leveraging Volkswagen Group scale while maintaining luxury pricing power. The automaker targets 80% global electric deliveries by 2030, aligning its product roadmap with regional recovery trends in China and North America to capitalize on its 75th anniversary as a sports car manufacturer.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
What’s driving the surge in shareholder activism activity?
Avinash Mehrotra, Pamela Codo-Lotti, Alison Nathan, Avi Mehrotra, Pam Kodoloti
By March 2023, activist investor campaigns reached pre-pandemic intensity with a record $13.13 billion raised by Elliot Management, driving a surge in pressure on one in four S&P 500 companies and expanding into large-cap targets in Japan and Europe. Activists are shifting strategies from inorganic growth to operational efficiency and capital returns, utilizing new universal proxy rules and increased capital availability to target defensive corporations in tech, healthcare, and industrials. As multiple investors increasingly "swarm" single firms, companies are responding by adopting proactive, data-driven governance reviews to preemptively address vulnerabilities in board composition and capital allocation.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
The global economy in 2075: Growth slows as Asia rises
Goldman Sachs Research has released its 2024 iteration of the long-term global economic forecast, extending the projection horizon to 2075 across 104 economies to analyze structural drivers like demographics and productivity. The study predicts a global population peak of 10 billion by 2050, which will decelerate growth but enable low-income emerging markets to continue converging with developed nations, ultimately driving China to overtake the US economy by 2035 and India to catch up by 2075. While these structural trends support a shift of investment and corporate expansion toward emerging markets, the outlook remains vulnerable to specific risks including rising protectionism and climate change impacts on vulnerable economies.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
Taking Stock: What’s Ahead for US Markets
Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to remain in bear market territory through early 2023, with a baseline forecast of closing at 3,600 before potentially dropping to 3,150 if aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes trigger a recession. Investors are currently adopting a risk-off stance by reducing leverage and holding higher cash levels, reflecting a market shift where positive real yields favor safe assets over equities as inflation remains stubborn. While the energy sector is expected to drive Q3 earnings growth, the broader market faces margin compression and earnings declines outside of energy, delaying a market recovery until inflation clarity emerges in mid-2023.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Breaking Down the Dollar’s Rise
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts project further U.S. dollar appreciation driven by America's overheating economy and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, which contrast with the constrained monetary policies of the ECB, BOJ, and PBOC. While this strength aids U.S. inflation goals, it forces non-U.S. economies into a difficult trade-off between accepting currency depreciation or risking domestic growth through aggressive tightening, with emerging markets facing severe debt vulnerabilities. Exceptions like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have resisted these trends by initiating earlier rate hikes, yet analysts anticipate the dollar's dominance will persist until U.S. inflation peaks and global growth stabilizes, unlikely before 2023.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Will Slaying Inflation Require Recession?
Jan Hatzius, Olivier Blanchard, Alison Nathan
Olivier Blanchard and Jan Hatzius present conflicting views on whether the post-pandemic labor market can rebalance through reduced vacancies without triggering a recession, with Blanchard predicting unemployment must rise to 6–7% to tame inflation while Hatzius forecasts a modest 4.2% increase by late 2024. Blanchard attributes current structural mismatches and wage-price spirals to a higher natural rate of unemployment requiring severe economic contraction, whereas Hatzius attributes high vacancies to temporary supply constraints that are now resolving through decelerating growth rather than layoffs. The debate highlights divergent recession probabilities, with Blanchard viewing a downturn as inevitable under current Fed tightening and Hatzius estimating a 30% chance over the next year as the economy navigates a potential soft landing.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Investing with KKR’s Tara Davies
Tara Davies, Alison Mass, Alison Nathan
On March 17, 2022, KKR Partner Tara Davies outlined a strategic pivot toward inflation-resistant real assets, emphasizing infrastructure's ability to hedge rising costs through revenue pass-through mechanisms while navigating a competitive market landscape. Davies detailed KKR's sector-agnostic approach to classifying assets by complexity rather than industry, prioritizing pricing power to protect margins amid supply chain disruptions and operational risks. The discussion further highlighted the firm's commitment to decarbonizing existing "brown" assets through granular operational improvements rather than divestment, alongside a leadership philosophy that values constructive debate and people skills over pure analytical modeling.
- Goldman Sachs16 min
How Policymakers are Navigating Stagflation Risk
Eric Rosengren, Philipp Hildebrand, Jan Hatzius, Alison Nathan
Economists Eric Rosengren and Philip Hildebrand warn that the U.S. and Euro Area face heightened stagflation risks driven by multi-decade inflation levels and supply shocks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the Federal Reserve is criticized for being behind the curve in raising rates, strategies involving balance sheet recalibration are debated to avoid a policy-induced recession predicted by Goldman Sachs analysts. Policymakers remain compelled to continue tightening to anchor inflation expectations, even as forecasts suggest a shallow normalization cycle and a growth slowdown to approximately 2%.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
Copper is the New Oil
Goldman Sachs identifies copper as the "new oil" essential for global net-zero targets, projecting that green economy adoption will drive demand to nearly 6 million tons by 2030 while creating a structural deficit of over 8 million tons. Despite price forecasts reaching $15,000 per ton by 2025, major mining producers remain hesitant to initiate new greenfield projects due to prolonged permitting, high costs, and a conservative post-2010 balance sheet strategy. Consequently, the market faces an irreversible supply crunch in the mid-2020s that will likely decouple copper prices from traditional Chinese cycles and trigger a sustained multi-year bull market.