Latest Interviews
Showing 226–240 of 481 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs20 min
How tariffs will impact the US economy
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Miracle, joined by host Alison Nathan in a March 10 *Exchanges* episode, revised the full-year effective tariff forecast upward to approximately 10 percentage points, driven by implementations on Canada, Mexico, and proposed auto duties. Consequently, the firm lowered its 2025 GDP growth outlook to 1.7% and raised the recession probability to 20%, while maintaining a Federal Reserve rate-cutting trajectory that diverges from market expectations due to elevated inflation near 3%. Although Miracle dismisses the current environment as true stagflation, he warns that expanded trade policy uncertainty poses a more severe risk to business investment and hiring than in 2019.
- Goldman Sachs8 min
Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin on the market impact of recent policy updates
David Kostin, Carl, John Yang, Sarah
Goldman Sachs strategist David Koston revised 2024 U.S. equity EPS growth forecasts downward to 9% due to a weakening economic outlook, while maintaining a 6,500 target for the S&P 500. Portfolio rotations are shifting toward defensive healthcare and consumer staples as investors grow indifferent to trade policy uncertainty, with a specific focus on low-volatility earnings and companies leveraging AI for revenue generation. Although tariff scenarios could compress margins, the firm continues to view GDP growth and the Magnificent Seven's high reinvestment rates as the primary drivers for sustained market performance pending durable economic data.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
Trump’s tariffs: Big talk or big action?
Trump, Jeff Gerrish, Allison Nathan
The current administration is deploying aggressive tariff policies to reshape U.S. manufacturing, secure national security in strategic sectors, and address geopolitical concerns like fentanyl trafficking. While market volatility is intentionally leveraged to force negotiation concessions, a coordinated strategy involving hawkish figures aims to replace bilateral deals with a reciprocal global tariff system by the April 1st deadline. Despite legal challenges, these measures are designed to correct trade imbalances and extend beyond the scope of previous administrations to fundamentally alter international trade dynamics.
- Goldman Sachs38 min
Bigger markets, more alpha: Capstone’s Paul Britton on running a derivatives hedge fund
Paul Britton, Tony Pasquarello
Founded in 2004 by Paul Brittain, Capstone Investment Advisors transitioned from options market making to a $11 billion multi-asset firm that leverages post-2008 risk framework reforms to generate alpha through derivative strategies. The firm currently manages a 330-person organization utilizing AI to automate workflows and maintains a distinct focus on providing liquidity overlays for institutions heavily allocated to private assets. Looking forward, leadership anticipates a shift away from central bank interventions toward higher market elasticity, a structural change that Brittain believes will favor active management strategies employing rigorous process discipline.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Macro questions and market strength
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzias and Dominic Wilson project that 2025 U.S. real GDP will grow by approximately 2.5% despite an effective tariff increase of 4–7 percentage points, a scenario where tailwinds continue to outweigh policy headwinds. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates later in the year due to sticky but manageable inflation, markets remain resilient near record highs driven by strong consumer income growth and a pricing dynamic that favors offshore equities. The analysts warn that aggressive tariff implementation poses a significant tail risk for growth and bond yields, yet they maintain that the current low recession probability supports a gradual upward drift in risk assets.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
FedEx founder & chairman Fred Smith on transforming global logistics
FedEx founder Fred Smith established a revolutionary hub-and-spoke logistics network grounded in military matrix management and the "People, Service, Profit" philosophy to scale operations globally while retaining key talent. Under his leadership, the integration of real-time tracking with a massive air and ground fleet enabled the company to handle approximately six percent of U.S. GDP and provide unique economic data insights into consumer trends. Today, Smith emphasizes that maintaining defensible competencies in artificial intelligence and digital transformation is critical for navigating the rapid market shifts that threaten legacy business models.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Tariffs: What’s ahead and why it matters
Alec Phillips, Joseph Briggs, Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Starting February 1, 2025, the administration implemented a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and delayed measures against Canada and Mexico while accelerating steel and aluminum duties to 25% with no exemptions. This unprecedented two-week escalation compresses trade war dynamics into a single window, projecting a mid-single-digit rise in effective U.S. tariff rates that could slow American growth by 25 basis points and push core inflation to 2.6% by year-end. As global central banks diverge with the Federal Reserve adopting a slightly hawkish stance, investors are increasingly hedging against dollar strength while anticipating a pivotal April 1 report on structural tariff mechanisms.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
AI Exchanges: Will falling costs drive new opportunities?
Allison Nathan, George Lee, Kim Posnett
Host George Lee and guests analyze how DeepSeek's low-cost AI model challenges the economic viability of massive U.S. tech capital expenditures while triggering a shift in consensus from data scarcity to power availability as the primary industry constraint. Despite short-term market volatility, the panel highlights record CapEx commitments from hyperscalers and emerging enterprise adoption trends, including Goldman Sachs' internal AI tools and synthetic data markets, which collectively suggest a rapid transition toward autonomous AI agents and multi-gigawatt infrastructure needs. The discussion concludes with a bullish long-term outlook, predicting that declining computing costs will fuel new use cases and accelerate workforce productivity even as the sector navigates immediate supply chain bottlenecks.
- Goldman Sachs35 min
How the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup with CEO Matt Caldwell
CEO Matt Caldwell spearheaded the Florida Panthers' transformation from a financially struggling franchise into a Stanley Cup champion by implementing Wall Street-level financial rigor and a data-driven "grit" culture. The organization achieved this turnaround by pivoting revenue streams from traditional cable models to direct-to-consumer and Over-the-Air broadcasting while aggressively cultivating community engagement through veteran-focused initiatives and grassroots youth programs. This strategic shift not only secured the team's first championship in thirty years but also established a sustainable business model capable of thriving despite the NHL's unique salary cap constraints and the rapid evolution of sports media distribution.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on the business environment, AI, and private credit
On January 27, 2025, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and host Allison Nathan discussed a macroeconomic outlook defined by regulatory optimism alongside persistent uncertainties in immigration, trade, and energy policy. Solomon projected a robust 2025 recovery for capital markets and M&A activity while highlighting artificial intelligence as a critical productivity driver, even as he flagged geopolitical instability and complex inflation dynamics as key risks. The firm further emphasized its strategy to deploy excess capital buffers through private credit expansion and asset management growth, contingent on the appointment of key financial regulators and the resolution of stress testing ambiguities.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
The pace of innovation in biotech: Mirador’s Mark McKenna
Former Prometheus Biosciences CEO Mark McKenna discusses the transformation of the biotech landscape from a pharma-dominated field to one driven by agile, high-risk companies like his current venture, Mirador Therapeutics, which recently secured $400 million in rapid fundraising. Drawing on his experience leading the $11 billion Merck acquisition of Prometheus, McKenna emphasizes that success now relies on leveraging generative AI for precision medicine, operating with a "speed as currency" philosophy to parallelize trials, and maintaining strategic secrecy to protect intellectual property against global competitors. The dialogue further outlines critical industry challenges, including the need to reform drug pricing models dominated by PBMs and to de-risk supply chains from over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Navigating the volatility in global bond markets
Jonathan Fine, George Cole, Alison Nathan, Jonny Fine
Following a global surge in bond yields driven by stronger-than-expected US growth and revised Federal Reserve policy expectations, investors are now pricing in heightened inflation risks and significant fiscal issuance from the incoming administration. Despite this volatility, corporate credit markets remain robust as earnings outpace borrowing costs, while central banks focus on preventing wage-driven second-round inflationary effects. Goldman Sachs' Jonny Fine projects a favorable bond outlook for 2025 based on underlying inflation moderation and the belief that current neutral rate concerns are overstated.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Keep on truckin’: Will the US continue to outperform other markets?
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani, Alison
Goldman Sachs Wealth Management forecasts an 8% base return for U.S. equities in 2025, advocating for a strategic shift from non-U.S. public markets toward U.S.-oriented private assets despite elevated valuations. The firm advises against allocating capital to China, gold, or cryptocurrencies, citing structural headwinds and a lack of intrinsic value, while predicting that interest rates will decline as tariffs remain limited. Consequently, the outlook recommends maintaining a high-quality fixed income hedge to navigate volatility rather than employing costly derivatives or selling equities for tax avoidance.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Navigating 2025: Why investors need to diversify and hedge their portfolios
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
The 2024 financial landscape featured broad outperformance of U.S. large-cap equities and tight credit spreads, driven by resilient global growth despite significant regional divergences and a 100-basis point Federal Reserve rate cut. Looking ahead to 2025, strategists anticipate a reflationary macro regime that will likely compress risk premiums and challenge concentrated valuations, prompting a strategic shift toward diversified equity barbell positions and higher allocation to fixed income. Investors are advised to prepare for elevated term premiums and geopolitical uncertainty by utilizing gold, currency hedges, and defensive options to mitigate risks associated with sticky inflation and supply-driven bond market dynamics.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Markets post-Fed: Inflation back in focus
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Don Wilson
The Federal Reserve concluded its initial easing cycle with a 25 basis point rate cut while signaling a shift to a cautious, data-dependent Phase Two that prioritizes inflation progress toward the 2% target. Economists and strategists project 2 to 3 additional cuts in 2025 contingent on cooling price pressures, though markets face binary volatility driven by upcoming tariff announcements and leadership transitions. While underlying inflationary risks in housing moderate and the Fed Put provides downside support, equity performance will increasingly rely on corporate earnings rather than anticipated policy support in the post-election landscape.