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  1. The Economist23 min

    Coming up Trump: our election model puts Harris behind

    Trump, Harris, Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Dan Rosenheck, Simon Wright, Shailesh Chitnas

    The Economist's latest forecasting model has shifted to give Donald Trump a 56% probability of winning the U.S. presidency, narrowing the Electoral College gap in key swing states after consolidating undecided and third-party voters. Meanwhile, Tesla introduced its autonomous Cyber Cab and RoboVan with plans to undercut competitors on price, though the event triggered a 9% stock decline due to investor skepticism over regulatory hurdles and a lack of concrete deployment timelines. Finally, Microsoft marked Excel's 40th anniversary by integrating AI assistants to maintain its dominance among 400 million paid users despite the software's historical role in significant data processing errors.

  2. The Economist22 min

    Left field: a new force in German politics

    Sahra Wagenknecht, Rosie Bloor, Tom Nuffel, Caitlin Talbot

    In Germany, Sarah Wagenknecht's new party secured 6% of the European vote and won three state elections by merging left-wing economics with right-leaning positions on immigration and Ukraine, though her refusal to support US missile deployments has stalled coalition talks. Simultaneously, Moldova faced intense Russian interference that narrowed its EU membership referendum to a 50.2% margin and forced President Maia Sandu into a runoff after failing to win a first-round majority. Finally, TikTok is accelerating English linguistic evolution by generating roughly 100 neologisms annually and fostering "AlgoSpeak" to bypass content moderation, while introducing distinctive features like the "uptalk" accent.

  3. The Economist24 min

    Marching borders: what was Hizbullah’s plan?

    Jason Palmer, Rosie Bloor, Anshul Pfeffer, Ana Laikas, Mario Grassi, Valedeiro, Tatiana Shore, Simon Cox

    Amidst escalating strikes in southern Lebanon and discovered Iranian-backed fortifications near the Israeli border, Tel Aviv assesses its capacity for a prolonged multi-front war while awaiting geopolitical decisions influenced by the upcoming US presidential election. Simultaneously, Brazil is leveraging its tropical climate and degraded land to scale up voluntary carbon credit markets through mechanized reforestation, despite facing hurdles regarding land titles and logistical bottlenecks. Global innovation activity shows signs of contraction with a drop in patent filings driven by higher interest rates, though the World Intellectual Property Organization's latest index highlights that emerging economies like India and China continue to outperform their economic output in efficiency rankings.

  4. The Economist25 min

    Spies isn’t everything: Putin’s global-chaos machine

    Putin, Jason Palmer, Shashank Joshi, Callum Williams, Maria Vilcek

    Russian intelligence services have shifted to a "feral" strategy of asymmetric sabotage and psychological destabilization across Europe and the Middle East, while simultaneously targeting US democratic institutions to exacerbate societal divisions without seeking direct warfare. In wealthy nations, governments face a structural paradox where rising entitlement spending crowds out critical public service investment, creating an unsustainable fiscal model driven by short-term political incentives. Meanwhile, the British baked bean market is undergoing a significant evolution, leveraging health trends and premiumization strategies to grow its dominance as a versatile, high-fiber protein staple within a culture transitioning away from meat consumption.

  5. The Economist26 min

    Leaderless: the death of Yahya Sinwar

    Yahya Sinwar, Jason Palmer, Anshul, Idris Kalloun, Anne Rowe

    Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to offer amnesty for the release of remaining hostages while analysts note a leadership vacuum that complicates a ceasefire amid ongoing regional threats from Iran and Hezbollah. Simultaneously, the 2024 US presidential race has intensified in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan, where demographic shifts regarding college education and economic anxiety are driving a fierce battle for the electoral college. In a separate development, 28-year-old genetic research subject Sammy Basso died from progeria after living nearly double the expected lifespan, having actively advanced scientific understanding of rapid aging through his participation in experimental treatments.

  6. The Economist9 min

    Will young people let democracy die?

    Robert Guest

    A 2023 Open Society Foundations survey across 30 countries reveals a sharp generational decline in democratic support, where only 57% of 18–35-year-olds prefer democracy compared to 71% of those over 55. This dissatisfaction, driven by economic opportunity gaps in mature democracies and reform fatigue in transitioning states, is fueling a global shift toward populist leaders who promise short-term economic relief. While this trend initially boosts support for anti-system actors, it ultimately risks eroding democratic institutions and enabling authoritarianism through growing apathy rather than active opposition.

  7. The Economist25 min

    Shoal searching: the South China sea simmers

    Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Aaron Connolly, Dima, Anne Hanna, Stanley Pignol

    On June 17 and August 31, escalating maritime clashes between Chinese and Filipino vessels in the South China Sea resulted in hull damage and a sailor injury, prompting a provisional resupply understanding while analysts warn of sustained risks to US treaty credibility. Simultaneously, a humanitarian crisis in Gaza has uprooted thousands of civilians like student Dima, who face repeated displacement, economic collapse, and both direct and indirect fatalities amid active bombing. In Europe, a rebounding wolf population exceeding 20,000 has ignited a culture war over livestock losses, leading most EU governments to agree on downgrading legal protections despite ecologist warnings of a potential population crash.

  8. The Economist24 min

    Your money for a run? Campaign finance in America

    Jason Palmer, Rosie Bloor, Adam O'Neill, Matt Steinglass, Dolly Setton

    Kamala Harris has raised over $1 billion since July, significantly outpacing Donald Trump's fundraising despite analysts arguing that such financial disparities rarely shift outcomes among calcified voter bases. Meanwhile, the US political landscape remains shaped by small-dollar donor networks and corporate shifts toward Democrats, even as Republican donors express skepticism regarding the vice-presidential candidacy of JD Vance. Simultaneously, the Dutch coalition led by Geert Wilders faces domestic controversy and international criticism over its plan to declare a state of emergency to bypass parliamentary oversight amidst a severe asylum housing crisis involving 1,500 applicants on the MS Galaxy. This aggressive policy, intended to deter future migrants, has drawn warnings from experts that it mirrors authoritarian maneuvers seen in Hungary and threatens to undermine the rule of law. In the global architecture sector, a distinct trend separates the supertall construction boom in China and the Middle East from the regulatory and cultural resistance preventing similar developments across historic European cities. While engineering limits currently constrain height, the Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia aims to reclaim the record as the world's tallest structure once finished.

  9. The Economist24 min

    Keir eye for the FDI: an interview with Britain’s PM

    Keir Starmer, Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Matthew Holhouse, Jeff Carr, Rebecca Jackson

    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer launched an International Investment Summit aiming to reverse the UK's decades-long low investment status by streamlining bureaucracy and integrating the Office for Investment directly into Number 10 under Poppy Gustafson. While the strategy offers planning reforms and policy predictability to attract capital, it simultaneously introduces stricter labor market regulations and potential capital taxes through the Employment Rights Bill and October budget. This economic pivot seeks to balance investor needs with worker protections to stimulate productivity, though critics note the risks of a more regulated environment offsetting planning benefits.

  10. The Economist25 min

    One giant, cheap for mankind: SpaceX’s Starship

    Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Oliver Morton, Anna

    SpaceX successfully test-flighted its 120-meter Starship vehicle using hot staging, with the booster returning to Earth for a vertical landing while the upper stage completed a half-orbit trajectory around the globe. This milestone paves the way for future iterations capable of carrying 100–150 tons to low-Earth orbit, supporting orbital fuel depots for eventual human missions to Mars. In Brazil, a far-right resurgence is reshaping the political landscape as conservative candidates shift toward extreme positions to capture the Bolsonaro vote following municipal elections dominated by incumbents. Demographic changes and structural advantages for the right are expected to create a polarized 2026 presidential race where President Lula faces significant challenges due to his age and a shrinking left-wing base. The enduring popularity of the self-help genre, which now exceeds the sales of major scientific works, serves as a historical barometer for shifting societal anxieties ranging from industrial individualism to modern existential uncertainty. Critics note the field's prevalence of questionable advice, yet publishing data confirms that the genre's vast output of titles specifically targets distinct human fears such as adolescence, love, and alcoholism.

  11. The Economist25 min

    Labour’s love lost: Keir Starmer’s first 100 days

    Keir Starmer, Rosie Bloor, Matthew Holhouse, Sasha Nauta, Anne Rowe

    Prime Minister Keir Starmer's first 100 days have been marked by internal strife, including the departure of Chief of Staff Sue Gray and criticism over ethics violations, as his administration pivots from campaign fiscal restraint to funding infrastructure through revised borrowing rules. Meanwhile, in the US, Nevada remains a pivotal battleground where abortion ballot measures and hospitality worker incentives are driving the close contest between Democrats and Republicans, with Kamala Harris emphasizing reproductive freedom to mobilize independent voters. The period also concluded with the death of Yoshioka Masamitsu, one of the last surviving Pearl Harbor bombers, who spent his final years expressing deep remorse for his role in the attack on the USS Utah.

  12. The Economist21 min

    Paradise lost: Hurricane Milton bashes Florida

    Rosie Bloor, Oliver Morton, Nick Pelham, Emily Steinmark

    Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm driven by warm ocean waters, prompting President Biden to issue evacuation warnings as it caused widespread power outages and structural damage across Florida while experts link its severity to climate change trends. Concurrently, the crisis has injected urgency into the US election cycle amidst political disputes over disaster response, paralleling a resurgence in global Palestinian activism that has shifted cultural perceptions and heightened fears of further Israeli expansion. In the scientific realm, imminent development of a nuclear clock prototype promises to test fundamental physics theories through unprecedented precision, marking a significant leap in measuring time via nuclear transitions rather than current atomic standards.

  13. The Economist22 min

    Google’s lurch: how to fix its monopoly

    Rosie Bloor, Alice Fullwood, Kate Parker, Vishnu Padmanabhan

    The US Department of Justice has proposed remedies to dismantle Google's alleged search monopoly, which generates roughly $26 billion annually through exclusive default agreements, with final penalties to be decided in a trial next year. While Google faces potential restrictions on paying for default status and mandatory data sharing to foster competition, the agency must also weigh the rising threat of generative AI as a market disruptor. Concurrently, global water utilities are deploying advanced leak detection technologies, including acoustic loggers and in-pipe robots, to combat aging infrastructure losses despite significant capital costs and regulatory hurdles. These technical solutions are increasingly supported by government green transition funds aimed at mitigating water scarcity, even as trials continue to address contamination risks associated with autonomous repair systems.

  14. The Economist25 min

    General rule: how to reinvent America’s army

    Randy George, Elias Khoury, Jason Palmer, Rosie Bloor, Ethan Wu, Anne Rowe

    Under General Randy George, the U.S. Army is pivoting from counter-insurgency to high-intensity state conflict by reducing vehicle fleets to prioritize combat training while simultaneously surging artillery production and exceeding recruitment targets. To accelerate modernization against rivals like Russia and China, the service has launched an innovation pilot testing new equipment in active brigades to bypass traditional procurement bottlenecks, though military leaders remain skeptical about scaling these experimental successes across the entire force. This strategic shift occurs alongside a managed trade-off where reduced maintenance burdens free resources but introduce operational risks amidst ongoing procurement challenges and rapidly evolving adversary capabilities.

  15. The Economist1h 4m

    The Weekend Intelligence: Gaza, after the dust settles (republished)

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Greg Karlstrom, Dana Struhl, Mohamed Mustafa, Shahabil al-Zayim, Moussa Abou-Mazouk, Bassem Naeem, Nick Pelham, Leah, Yael, Yoaz Hendel, Simcha Rothman, Yair Golan, Naftali Bennett, Anwar al-Jundi Abu Subi, Tarnim, Matthew Hollingworth, Ali Shaf

    Nine months into the conflict, Gaza faces near-total destruction and a humanitarian catastrophe as competing visions for post-war governance emerge, with the US and Palestinian Authority advocating for a revitalized PA while Israeli factions range from rejecting a political horizon to proposing indefinite military control. Security vacuums are already being filled by armed criminal gangs and Hamas, creating a lawless environment that threatens to collapse into permanent instability without a credible international or Israeli security plan. Experts warn that the absence of political consensus, combined with the logistical failure of aid delivery and the scale of rubble requiring forty million tons of clearance, renders a successful transition vanishingly unlikely.