Latest Interviews
Showing 106–120 of 141 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs24 min
Europe’s Energy Crisis: End in sight or far from over?
Samantha Dart, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Europe is navigating the current energy crisis with a heightened risk outlook driven by mild weather and robust gas storage, yet structural supply gaps and delayed LNG projects will necessitate recurring demand management through 2024. While geopolitical sanctions and price caps aim to redistribute Russian oil flows, Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude reaching $115 per barrel alongside a projected Eurozone recession starting in late 2022 due to persistent inflation. Ultimately, the region faces a volatile trajectory where industrial activity is already contracting and government interventions risk creating future fiscal cliffs if weather patterns turn colder or China's demand rebounds.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
Taking Stock: What’s Ahead for US Markets
Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to remain in bear market territory through early 2023, with a baseline forecast of closing at 3,600 before potentially dropping to 3,150 if aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes trigger a recession. Investors are currently adopting a risk-off stance by reducing leverage and holding higher cash levels, reflecting a market shift where positive real yields favor safe assets over equities as inflation remains stubborn. While the energy sector is expected to drive Q3 earnings growth, the broader market faces margin compression and earnings declines outside of energy, delaying a market recovery until inflation clarity emerges in mid-2023.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Breaking Down the Dollar’s Rise
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts project further U.S. dollar appreciation driven by America's overheating economy and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, which contrast with the constrained monetary policies of the ECB, BOJ, and PBOC. While this strength aids U.S. inflation goals, it forces non-U.S. economies into a difficult trade-off between accepting currency depreciation or risking domestic growth through aggressive tightening, with emerging markets facing severe debt vulnerabilities. Exceptions like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have resisted these trends by initiating earlier rate hikes, yet analysts anticipate the dollar's dominance will persist until U.S. inflation peaks and global growth stabilizes, unlikely before 2023.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Will Slaying Inflation Require Recession?
Jan Hatzius, Olivier Blanchard, Alison Nathan
Olivier Blanchard and Jan Hatzius present conflicting views on whether the post-pandemic labor market can rebalance through reduced vacancies without triggering a recession, with Blanchard predicting unemployment must rise to 6–7% to tame inflation while Hatzius forecasts a modest 4.2% increase by late 2024. Blanchard attributes current structural mismatches and wage-price spirals to a higher natural rate of unemployment requiring severe economic contraction, whereas Hatzius attributes high vacancies to temporary supply constraints that are now resolving through decelerating growth rather than layoffs. The debate highlights divergent recession probabilities, with Blanchard viewing a downturn as inevitable under current Fed tightening and Hatzius estimating a 30% chance over the next year as the economy navigates a potential soft landing.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Bear Market Bounce or Stock Market Bottom?
Peter Oppenheimer, Alison Nathan
Current equity rallies are classified as bear market corrections rather than a transition to a new bull cycle, as key indicators including valuations, economic deterioration, and investor sentiment have not yet reached the extremes typically required for a bottom. While Goldman Sachs projects a further 30% decline in major markets with the S&P 500 potentially falling to 3,150 in a recession scenario, the downturn is distinguished from structural crashes by healthier corporate balance sheets and robust regulatory frameworks. Investment strategies are shifting toward diversification and a barbell approach that combines defensive growth with deep-value resources, waiting for specific macro signals before anticipating sustained positive returns.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
Food, Fuel, and the Cost-of-Living Crisis
Jeff Currie, Gary Shilling, Meghan O'Sullivan, Chris Barrett, Alison Nathan
Global commodity leaders Jeff Curry and Gary Schilling debated the existence of a new supercycle, with Curry predicting a supply-driven price surge due to structural underinvestment while Schilling forecasts falling prices as demand contracts under recessionary pressures. Cornell Professor Chris Barrett and Harvard's Megan O'Sullivan further analyzed how geopolitical conflicts and energy transitions are driving a food crisis and realigning global power dynamics, warning that persistent high costs will fuel instability and mass migration. The discussion concluded that without significant capital expenditure and technological innovation to resolve supply bottlenecks, the world faces a prolonged period of economic volatility and social unrest.
- Goldman Sachs44 min
Investing with Permira’s Tara Alhadeff
Tara Alhadeff, Alison Mass, Alison Nathan
Private equity executive Tara Aladef leverages her post-2008 crisis experience to lead a strategy focused on undervalued, emotionally resonant heritage brands like Doc Martens and Golden Goose, where she applies a rigorous framework distinguishing structural growth from temporary trends. By prioritizing the intersection of creative design and commercial pragmatism, her firm has successfully navigated economic downturns to drive significant value in portfolio companies through digital acceleration and direct-to-consumer models. Looking ahead, Aladef anticipates a bifurcated consumer market that favors high-income resilience and small-ticket items while expecting private market valuation corrections to lag behind public declines over the coming years.
- Goldman Sachs50 min
Investing with Forerunner’s Eurie Kim
Eurie Kim, Katie Koch, Alison Nathan
Yuri Kim of Forerunner Ventures outlines a strategic pivot from traditional product-centric DTC models to experience-driven services while addressing the current venture capital slowdown caused by valuation misalignment and macroeconomic headwinds. The firm emphasizes a rigorous founder selection process prioritizing vision, discipline, and magnetism, particularly for teams navigating the shifting demographic landscape of Gen Z and settling millennials. Additionally, Kim highlights the critical role of diverse leadership in driving innovation and operational stability, noting that female investors bring distinct mediation skills essential for managing complex market environments.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Investing with Oaktree Capital Management’s Howard Marks
Howard Marks, Katie Koch, Alison Nathan
Howard Marks characterizes the mid-2022 market environment as a corrected balance where significant public equity markdowns have created attractively valued opportunities absent from private markets. Rejecting macroeconomic forecasts, Marks outlines Oaktree's crisis strategy of deploying capital when others retreat, a methodology built on historical conditioning and the principle that price matters more than asset quality. His 35-year partnership with Bruce Karsh further reinforces this discipline through complementary governance, ensuring joint conviction remains high during market dislocations.
- Goldman Sachs33 min
How Companies are Navigating the Energy Transition
Giulia Chierchia, Michele Della Vigna, Alison Nathan
Amidst a historic energy investment shortfall and geopolitical disruption from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, major integrated oil companies like BP are pivoting to balance decarbonization targets with energy security. BP aims to reduce its hydrocarbon portfolio by 40% by 2030 while investing billions in green hydrogen and renewable assets to reach net-zero emissions, viewing natural gas as a critical transition fuel. Simultaneously, the broader industry leverages these strategic shifts and aggressive capital allocation to attract valuation re-ratings as renewable technologies become more economically viable despite near-term supply chain inflation.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Investing with The Carlyle Group’s Sandra Horbach
Sandra Horbach, Alison Mass, Alison Nathan
In a May 23, 2022 conversation, Sandra Horbach of the Carlyle Group discusses the private equity industry's evolution from a niche sector to a mainstream asset class while detailing Carlyle's specialized investment strategies focused on market leaders and ESG integration. Horbach outlines the firm's aggressive diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, including a compensation-linked mentorship program and a $2 million award pool, aimed at empowering women to secure high-impact leadership roles. Addressing current macroeconomic headwinds, she advises prioritizing companies with resilient business models capable of thriving through volatility while reflecting on her 35-year career trajectory from her early days at Forsman Little to her current advocacy for long-term, quality-driven value creation.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
The Boom in Private Credit
Lotfi Karoui, James Reynolds, Alison Nathan
On June 21, 2022, market participants discussed how the private credit sector has evolved from a niche alternative into a $1.2 trillion mainstream asset class that now rivals public high-yield and syndicated loan markets in size. The discussion highlighted that direct lending strategies offer borrowers bespoke, flexible financing structures while attracting a diversified investor base, yet the sector faces immediate pressure from rising interest rates that threaten borrowers with unsustainable capital structures. Despite concerns over potential defaults and future regulatory scrutiny, experts argued that direct lending remains structurally sound compared to the 2008 crisis due to lower leverage levels, locked-in capital alignment, and minimal asset-liability mismatches.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Investing with KKR’s Tara Davies
Tara Davies, Alison Mass, Alison Nathan
On March 17, 2022, KKR Partner Tara Davies outlined a strategic pivot toward inflation-resistant real assets, emphasizing infrastructure's ability to hedge rising costs through revenue pass-through mechanisms while navigating a competitive market landscape. Davies detailed KKR's sector-agnostic approach to classifying assets by complexity rather than industry, prioritizing pricing power to protect margins amid supply chain disruptions and operational risks. The discussion further highlighted the firm's commitment to decarbonizing existing "brown" assets through granular operational improvements rather than divestment, alongside a leadership philosophy that values constructive debate and people skills over pure analytical modeling.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on the Economy, Investing and Sustainability
David Solomon, Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen, Alison Nathan, Valentine Van Nieuwenhuizen
Goldman Sachs has completed its acquisition of NN Investment Partners to significantly expand its European asset management platform and accelerate its sustainable investing capabilities under CEO David Solomon's four-year strategy. While the transaction strengthens the firm's fee-based revenue streams and operational scale, Solomon warns that clients should brace for increased market volatility and a heightened recession risk in Europe driven by energy supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. The integration aims to combine NNIP's sustainability expertise with Goldman's global capital resources to deliver active returns that outperform passive benchmarks amidst the current uncertain economic climate.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Investing with Norges Bank Investment Management’s Nicolai Tangen
Nicolai Tangen, Katie Koch, Alison Nathan
Nikolai Tangen, chief executive of Norges Bank Investment Management, directs the world's largest sovereign wealth fund as it navigates a projected decade of stagflation and geopolitical instability through tactical portfolio adjustments and a rigorous negative selection strategy. Leveraging an interrogative background and a philosophy of active ownership, Tangen emphasizes capitalizing on undervalued opportunities in markets like China while excluding companies with weak balance sheets to preserve the fund's $1.3 trillion in long-term assets. His approach integrates diverse intellectual perspectives and a commitment to transparency, as evidenced by his "Good Company" podcast and a pledge to donate most of his personal wealth to educational initiatives.