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  1. Goldman Sachs30 min

    2025 outlook: Will tailwinds trump tariffs?

    Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Yann, Dom, Tom, David, Alec, Dami, Yuan

    Forecasts project U.S. real GDP growth at 2.5% for 2025, driven by real wage gains and moderate financial conditions, while maintaining a 15% recession probability. The outlook hinges on tariff scenarios, where base case assumptions assume limited trade barriers, though a full across-the-board tariff risk could reduce growth by one percentage point and raise inflation toward 3%. Consequently, investors are advised to hedge equity concentration risks with non-U.S. bonds and options while anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts that target a federal funds range of 3.25% to 3.5% by late 2025.

  2. Goldman Sachs15 min

    Talks at GS – Robert Smith: The Fourth Industrial Revolution

    Robert Smith, David

    Vista Equity Partners Chairman and CEO Robert Smith leveraged his early Bell Labs experience and Goldman Sachs tenure to launch a private equity firm that redefines enterprise software investment by shifting focus from single products to long-term ecosystem control. Operating within the framework of the fourth industrial revolution, Smith's strategy prioritizes building platform moats over decades to dominate specific geographic or sectoral markets rather than competing for short-term product advantages. His approach combines a rigorous evaluation of industry equilibrium with a cultural emphasis on innovation, aiming to transform capital deployment from asset aggregation into deep, value-creating partnerships with software leaders.