Craig Siegenthaler

Shaky ‘26 for alt asset manager stocks, but steady asset inflows

TJ Thornton, Craig Siegenthaler

Following a decade of outperformance, alternative asset manager stocks face 2025–2026 headwinds from private credit concerns and AI-driven market disruption, yet have rebounded recently as valuations hit historical discounts and short positions unwind. Industry analysis identifies private credit fears as largely manufactured with returns forecast at 6%, while projecting that superior managers will capture future capital flows amid an expected bifurcation in performance. Despite private equity maturing, the sector retains defensive "never-for-seller" characteristics and significant long-term upside driven by retail adoption, operating leverage, and a future bear market that is projected to generate massive alpha through negative covariance with public equities.