Bruno Brzezina

Global Rates & FX Views: Central banks – the aftermath

Sphia Salim, Zviya Salim, Izumi Devalier, Agnieszka Ngerite, Bruno Brzezina

The Bank of Japan maintained a hawkish tone regarding inflation proximity while keeping the September rate hike on contingency, with strategists projecting a terminal rate of 1.75% by 2027 despite political headwinds. Meanwhile, the Bank of England split 6-3 to hold rates amidst balanced forward guidance, while the US Federal Reserve's lack of immediate action triggered a market reassessment that halved the probability of December hikes in favor of a potential September move. Across these major central banks, analysts note diverging paths where exchange rate sensitivity and QT impacts now play critical roles, all set against a backdrop of a potentially overvalued US 10-year yield and a US economy peaking in its reflationary phase.