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Praneet Shah

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  1. Goldman Sachs29 min

    What the US-Japan Currency Intervention Means for the Yen, Rates, and the Dollar

    Karen Fishman, Praneet Shah, Alison Nathan

    On July 30th, Japan executed its largest coordinated foreign exchange intervention in 15 years, injecting an estimated $85 billion to halt the yen's slide to 40-year lows against the U.S. dollar. This historic joint action with the United States triggered a 3% immediate appreciation, forcing the rapid unwinding of leveraged carry trades and marking the first such collaboration since October 2011. While the immediate impact stabilized the market, analysts project the intervention serves only as a temporary fix until the Bank of Japan implements anticipated rate hikes in September.

  2. Goldman Sachs26 min

    How a popular trade collapsed — and why it matters

    Kamakshya Trivedi, Praneet Shah, Allison Nathan

    Following a surge to record speculative highs in 2024, the yen carry trade unraveled after the Bank of Japan's rate hike and expectations of US Federal Reserve cuts narrowed the critical yield differential. This reversal triggered a negative feedback loop of forced liquidations across global markets, affecting currencies from the Mexican peso to the Chinese renminbi, while distinct dynamics emerged between the rapid unwinding of hedge fund positions and the slower rebalancing of institutional portfolios. Despite the immediate volatility, economists anticipate the trade could regain relevance by mid-November if US economic data supports the restoration of attractive global yield spreads.